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Performance of rain-fed Aman rice yield in Bangladesh in the presence of climate change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 September 2017

Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker ,
Khorshed Alam  and
Jeff Gow
Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker*
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh
Khorshed Alam
Affiliation:
School of Commerce, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba QLD, 4350, Australia
Jeff Gow
Affiliation:
School of Commerce, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba QLD, 4350, Australia Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, 7600, South Africa.
*
Author for correspondence: Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker, E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

This paper uses the framework of the Just–Pope production function to evaluate the impacts of climate change on yields of the rainfed Aman rice crop in Bangladesh. It analyses disaggregated district-level data on climate variables and Aman rice yield over a 48 year time horizon. The results reveal that changes in maximum temperatures have had positive and negative effects on yield in the linear and quadratic functional forms, respectively. However, the elasticity values in the variance function confirm that maximum temperature is risk-increasing for Aman rice while minimum temperature is likely to decrease yield variability. Rainfall has become risk-increasing for Aman rice. Based on three climate change scenarios, this paper also reveals that future climate change is expected to increase the variability of Aman rice yields. Finally, statistically significant dummies for different in-country climate zones require zone-specific adaptation policies to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change.

Keywords

Aman riceBangladeshclimate change
Type
Research Paper
Information
Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems , Volume 34 , Issue 4 , August 2019 , pp. 304 - 312
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

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