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Induced Socio-economic Behavior in Long Waves: The Recurrence of Normal and Revolutionary Economic Science

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Orley M. Amos Jr  and
Edward O. Price III
Orley M. Amos Jr
Affiliation:
Oklahoma State University
Edward O. Price III
Affiliation:
Oklahoma State University
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Summary

This research empirically examines the relationship between economic development and the progression of economic thought. It is based on three propositions: 1) economic development progresses by long waves, 2) long waves induce a cyclical pattern of general entrepreneurial and managerial socio-economic behavior, and 3) economists pursue alternating periods of revolutionary and normal economic science as part of the general socio-economic pattern of behavior. The general hypothesis of this study is that prosperity periods induce economic thought concerned with maintaining the status quo (Kuhnian normal science) and depressionary periods induce the development of new theories (Kuhnian revolutionary science). The specific hypothesis is that long waves generate a cyclical pattern in the average age of journal article citations. This hypothesis is supported when tested with a random sampling of articles published in the American Economic Review from 1911 to 1987.

Résumé

Résumé

Notre étude examine le lien entre le développement économique et l'évolution de la pensée économique. Elle se fonde sur trois propositions: 1) le développement économique progresse sous la forme de longues ondes, 2) celles-ci induisent une structure cyclique de comportement des entrepreneurs et des managers, 3) la science économique manifeste une alternance de phases normales et révolutionnaires, comme concrétisation de cette structure de comportement. L’hypothèse générale de l’article est que les périodes de prospérité induisent une pensée économique tendant a maintenir le statu quo (science normale au sens de Kuhn), alors que les périodes de récession voient le développement de nouvelles théories (révolution scientifique). Plus spécifiquement, l’hypothèse d’une structure cyclique de l’âge moyen des citations d’article déterminée par les ondes longues est mise en avant. Cette hypothèse est testée a partir d’un échantillon aléatoire d’articles publiés dans l'American Economie Review de 1911 a 1987.

Keywords

031112031112
Type
Research Article
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 57 , Issue 1 , 1991 , pp. 61 - 75
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1991 

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Footnotes

*

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Southwest Economic Association Meetings, March 25, 1988, Houston, Texas. This research was undertaken in cooperation with the Southwest Center for Economic Development, with financial support provided in part through funding from Deans Excellence Fund, College of Business Administration, Oklahoma State University. The authors would like to extend appreciation to Kevin Courrier for his assistance in developing the theoretical framework of this study and Everett Beadford for his efforts in collecting the necessary empirical data, and two anonymous reviewers.

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