The climate system consists of the atmosphere, the oceans, the cryosphere (land ice, snow, sea ice), the lithosphere, and the biomass. The behavior of the individual components of the system is governed by processes occurring over a broad range of time and space scales. The components are coupled by physical, biological, and chemical processes, and the coupled system seems capable of undergoing fluctuations on all time scales. In addition to these “internal” climatic processes, external processes (such as variability in the solar irradiance or human activities) must also be considered. Space and time scales of climatic variability are reviewed, with emphasis on the Holocene. Regional patterns of climatic variability may be associated with changes in the amplitude and longitudinal position of the long waves in the westerlies of midlatitudes, and with changes in the intensity and latitude of meridional circulation features such as the Hadley cell. Possible examples of this are mentioned. The variance spectrum of climatic time series is described and certain implications for climate modeling are suggested.

A variance spectrum of climatic variability is presented that spans all time scales of variability from about one hour (10−4 years) to the age of the Earth (4 × 109 years). An interpretive overview of the spectrum is offered in which a distinction is made between sources of variability that arise through stochastic mechanisms internal to the climatic system (atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere) and those that arise through forcing of the system from the outside. All identifiable mechanisms, both internal and external, are briefly defined and clarified as to their essential nature. It is concluded that most features of the spectrum of climatic variability can be given tentatively reasonable interpretations, whereas some features (in particular the quasi-biennial oscillation and the neoglacial cycle of the Holocene) remain fundamentally unexplained. The overall spectrum suggests the existence of a modest degree of deterministic forms of climatic change, but sufficient nonsystematic variability to place significant constraints both on the extent to which climate can be predicted, and on the extent to which significant events in the paleoclimatic record can ever manage to be assigned specific causes.

A basic assumption in some climatic theories is that, given the physical properties of the atmosphere and the underlying ocean and land, specified environmental parameters (amount of solar heating, etc.) would determine a unique climate and that climatic changes therefore result from changes in the environment. The possibility that no such unique climate exists and that nondeterministic factors are wholly or partly responsible for long-period fluctuations of the atmosphere-ocean-earth system, is considered. A simple difference equation is used to illustrate the phenomena of transitivity, intransitivity, and almost-intransitivity. Numerical models of moderate size suggest that almost-intransitivity might lead to persistence of atmospheric anomalies for a whole season. The effect of this persistence could be to allow substantial anomalies to build up in the underlying ocean or land, perhaps as abnormal temperatures or excessive snow or ice. These anomalies could subsequently influence the atmosphere, leading to long-period fluctuations. The implications of this possibility for the numerical modeling of climate, and for the interpretation of the output of numerical models, are discussed.

A series of lectures as comprehensive as those reported in this issue leaves very little for a general reviewer to say. The lecturers have included many of the leading specialists in each of the subfields of palaeoclimatology, upon whose work a reviewer must lean. Moreover there has recently been published a fine synthesis of what is known about the overall character of Quaternary and Holocene climates (U.S. GARP Committee, 1974) (hereafter referred to as GARP-74). All I can do in this situation is to point out some disturbing and persistent problems that tend to defy solution.

Changes of climate have characterized parts, and at times apparently all, of Earth's surface. Changes that have occurred during the Quaternary period have special significance because, being comparatively recent, they are revealed by physical geologic features that are still at or near the surface, as yet little damaged by erosion. Although some of these features can be interpreted in terms that are broadly quantitative, most are still only qualitative in that they are limited to specifying climatic parameters that are positive or negative relative to those prevailing today in the same area. The common parameters indicated by the physical evidence include temperature (mean annual or summer) and precipitation (mean annual or seasonal). More rarely directions and minimum speeds of effective winds can be specified. A useful basis for reconstructions of former climates is a checklist of the relict geologic features from which climatic inferences can be drawn. Such a list is given here.

Man's interference with the landscape process places him in the role of a “paraglacial” agent: He tends to duplicate ice-age stresses such as deforestation, accelerated erosion, and climate alteration. Against a background climatic control dictated by the Milankovich mechanisms, the 10,000-year history of the Holocene has seen very large secondary modulations that must be better understood so that they may be distinguished from anthropogenic effects. If they are exogenetically controlled, as it seems, then they are probably predictable from astronomic data. Four geomorphic type areas are selected for demonstrating Holocene changes in tropical regions, because they have been somewhat neglected within the framework of Quaternary science and because they include some of the most fragile and easily disrupted environments: lakes, semiarid desert margins, coastlines, and coral reefs. In a nutshell, the tropical Holocene has seen three major changes: (a) the evolution from the hyperaridity of the last pleniglacial stage to the “postglacial pluvial”; (b) the “climatic optimum,” which was highly diachronous and strongly retarded as it shifted from low latitudes to high; (c) the postoptimum “deterioration” that has involved desiccation of lakes, readvances of the deserts, fall of sea level, and truncation of coral reefs. While this deterioration is predictable in terms of an interglacial-glacial climatic transition, strong natural climatic oscillations, not yet well understood, together with man's activities, make the future a cause for concern.

Successive surveys of the cross section of ephemeral channels in New Mexico over a period of 15 years 1960–1975, show that arroyos that were actively eroding early in the century have reversed the trend and are alluviating. This appears to be associated with the worldwide cooling trend that began about 1940. If the inference proves to be correct, it is significant hydrologically, for it provides some specific knowledge of the climatic conditions associated with the alternate periods of valley erosion and valley alluviation that created the widespread terraces of the semiarid West.

Winter climatic anomalies in the North Pacific sector and western North America are statistically calibrated with tree-ring data in western North America and reconstructed back to AD 1700. The results are verified using climatic data from the last half of the 19th century, which is prior to the calibration period. Climatic conditions reconstructed for 18th and 19th century winters are then summarized and compared with the 20th century record.

For more than a century it has been postulated that the Holocene vegetation of western Europe has changed in significant ways. A half-century ago a lively debate revolved on whether there were one or two dry intervals causing bogs to dry out and become forested, or whether instead the climate warmed to a maximum and then cooled. Today none of these climatic schemes is accepted without reservation, because two nonclimatic factors are recognized as significant: the differential immigration rates of dominant tree types (e.g., spruce in the north and beech in the south) brought unexpected changes in forest composition, and Neolithic man cleared the forest for agriculture and thereby disrupted the natural plant associations.

In North America some of the same problems exist. In the hardwood forests of the Northeast, which are richer than but otherwise not unlike those of western Europe, the successive spread of white pine, hemlock, beech, hickory, and chestnut into oakdominated forests provides a pollen sequence that may yield no climatic message. On the other hand, on the ecotone between these hardwood forests and the conifer forests of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence area, the southward expansion of spruce, fir, and tamarack in the late Holocene implies a climatic cooling of regional importance, although the progressive conversion of lakes to wetlands favored the expansion of wetland forms of these genera.

In the southeastern states the late-Holocene expansion of southern pines has uncertain climatic significance. About all that can be said about the distribution and ecology of the 10 or so species is that some of them favor sandy soils and are adapted to frequent fires. In coastal areas the expansion of pines was accompanied by development of great swamps like Okefenokee and the Everglades—perhaps related to the stabilization of the water table after the early Holocene rise of sea level. The vegetation replaced by the pines in Florida consisted of oak scrub with prairie-like openings, indicating dry early Holocene conditions, which in fact had also prevailed during the time of Wisconsin glaciation.

In the Midwest the vegetation history provides a clearer record of Holocene climatic change, at least along the prairie border in Minnesota. With the withdrawal of the boreal spruce forest soon after ice retreat, pine forest and hardwood forest succeeded rapidly, as in the eastern states. But prairie was not far behind. By 7000 years ago the prairie had advanced into east-central Minnesota, 75 miles east of its present limit. It then withdrew to the west, as hardwoods expanded again, followed by conifers from the north. The sequence easily fits the paleoclimatic concept of gradual warming and drying to a maximum, followed by cooling to the present day. It is supported by independent fossil evidence from lake sediments, showing that lakes were shallow or even intermittently dry during mid-Holocene time.

Here we have a paleoclimatic pattern that is consistent with the record from glaciers in the western mountains—a record that involves a late-Holocene Neoglaciation after a mid-Holocene interval of distant glacial recession. Just as the Neoglaciation is time-transgressive, according to the review of its evidence by Porter and Denton, so also is the mid-Holocene episode of maximum warmth, and they are thus both geologicclimate units. The warm episode is commonly termed the Hypsithermal, which, however, was defined by Deevey and Flint as a time-stratigraphic unit that is supposed to have time-parallel rather than time-transgressive boundaries. It was defined on the basis of pollen-zone boundaries in western Europe and the northeastern United States that have a sound biogeographic but questionable paleoclimatic basis. Perhaps it should be redefined as Porter and Denton suggest, as a geologic-climate unit with recognizable time-transgressive boundaries that match the gradual geographic shifts in the general circulation of the atmosphere and the resulting location of storm tracks and weather patterns. Holocene glacial and vegetational progressions provide a good record of climatic change, if one can work out the lag effects related to the glacial economy and the geographic factors controlling tree migration. The terminology for the Holocene, where so much time control is available, should indicate the dynamic character not only of the climate but also of the geologic and biogeographic processes controlled by climate.

Study of the prehistory of an Americas has proceeded through successive cycles, in which archaeologists have assumed or postulated hypotheses of migration and development, have searched for evidence with which to test these hypotheses, and have abandoned them when the evidence proved to be contradictory. We are completing the current cycle and must seek new hypotheses that better fit our present evidence.

The available data are reviewed to show the inaccuracy of the current hypotheses and to develop new ones. It is suggested that the first Indians arrived during a Lower Lithic age, marked by the manufacture of irregular flakes, trimmed only on their edges. This age may have started as early as 30,000 BP.

South of the Laurentide ice sheet, the Lower Lithic age began to give way about 14,000 BP to a Middle Lithic Age. This was marked by a variety of types of bifacially chipped projectile points which seem to have developed locally: Folsomoid points in Anglo-America, Joboid points in the Circum-Caribbean region, and Magelloid points in western and southern South America.

North of the ice sheet, the place of the Middle Lithic age was taken by an Upper Lithic age, marked by microblades of Asiatic origin. These appear to have reached the Bering Strait region about 14,000 BP. The dichotomy between the Middle and Upper Lithic ages lasted until the retreat of the ice ca. 8000 BP.