Actuarial instruments may be useful in predicting long-term violence in mentally disordered patients. We compared two instruments that differ in terms of what they are designed to predict (general versus violent recividism) and the inclusion of stable mental health variables.

A large sample of mentally disordered patients were scored on two risk assessment instruments, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS), based on information at the point of discharge. Their criminal histories for at least 2 years following discharge were obtained from official records.

Both instruments were good predictors of both violent and general offending. Over shorter periods (<1 year) the VRAG had very good predictive validities for both types of offences [areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) >0·85], which were significantly better than the OGRS. For longer follow-up periods the instruments had approximately equal prediction accuracy. However, both instruments predicted far more offences than were in fact recorded.

The VRAG is a very good predictor of future violence in the UK sample. The OGRS may also be of value as it can be completed quickly and without the need for mental health variables. Caution is needed, however, as both instruments appeared to over-predict the levels of reconvictions in this sample.

Identification of factors that distinguish between ideators who act on their suicidal thoughts from those who do not is an important clinical and research objective.

We examined correlates of suicide attempts in suicidal ideators, members of a French-Canadian, school-based cohort. Suicidal thoughts were evaluated in adolescence and early adulthood in the total sample of suicidal ideators, who were then stratified into subgroups consisting of persistent ideators, male ideators and female ideators.

In addition to persistent suicidal ideas [odds ratios (ORs) 2·1–2·8], Axis I psychopathology, female gender and childhood sexual abuse (CSA) were the most consistent correlates of suicide attempts. Externalizing disorders were significant contributors in persistent ideators [drug misuse: OR 2·8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·1–6·9] and in male ideators in particular (disruptive disorders: OR 5·9, 95% CI 2·2–16·0). In women, psychiatric co-morbidity also had a significant effect (OR 1·6, 95% CI 1·1–2·1). CSA was of relevance in both women (OR 1·2, 95% CI 1·1–1·4) and persistent ideators (OR 1·3, 95% CI 1·1–1·5). Personality traits showed gender-specific contribution with affective instability (OR 1·1, 95% CI 1·01–1·1) and anxiousness (OR 1·3, 95% CI 1·1–1·7) contributing in men and disruptive aggression (OR 1·1, 95% CI 1·03–1·3) in women.

Correlates of suicide attempts in suicidal ideators vary as a function of the persistence of suicidal ideas and gender. This heterogeneity across subgroups of suicidal ideators may be attributed, at least in part, to differences between the sexes, early environmental adversity, maladaptive personality, and psychiatric symptoms. Further exploration and continued prospective follow-up is necessary to examine these possibilities.

Suicidal behaviors in young individuals represent an important public health problem. Understanding their natural history and relationships would therefore be of clinical and research value. In this study, we examined the natural histories of several suicidal behaviors and investigated two conceptual models of suicidality (dimensional and categorical) in the context of adolescent and adult-onset suicide attempts.

Participants were members of a prospectively studied, representative, population-based school cohort followed since age 6 (n=3017) through mid-adolescence (n=1715) to their early twenties (n=1684). Outcome measures included suicidal ideation, attempts and completions.

Approximately one in 500 individuals died by suicide. About 33% had suicidal ideas and 9·3% made at least one suicide attempt. Over half (4·9%) of the self-reported attempters made their first attempt before age 18. With the exception of current suicidal ideas, non-fatal suicidal behaviors were more prevalent in females. In general, parental and cross-sectional self-reports underestimated suicidality rates. Aikaike (AIC) and Bayesian (BIC) information criteria suggested the ordinal model, and dimensional conceptualization of suicide attempts of different onset age, to be more optimal than its multinomial/categorical counterpart (ordinal: AIC 567.55, BIC 635.67; multinomial: AIC 616.59, BIC 723.83). Both models, nevertheless, identified five common factors of relevance to suicidal diathesis: gender, disruptive disorders, childhood anxiousness and abuse, and suicidal thoughts.

Non-fatal suicidal behaviors in adolescents and young adults are more common than suggested by cross-sectional studies and parental reports. The dimensional model may be more useful in explaining the relationship of suicide attempts of different age of onset.

Little is known about differential suicide profiles across the life trajectory. This study introduces the life-course method in suicide research with the aim of refining the longitudinal and cumulative assessment of psychosocial factors by quantifying accumulation of burden over time in order to delineate distinctive pathways of completed suicide.

The psychological autopsy method was used to obtain third-party information on consecutive suicides. Life-history calendar analysis served to arrive at an adversity score per 5-year segment that was then cluster-analysed and correlated to define victim profiles.

Two distinct life trajectories emerged: (1) individuals who experienced childhood traumas, developmental adversity and little protection were more likely to present concurrent psychiatric and Axis II disorders; and (2) individuals who experienced less adversity but seemed more reactive to later major difficulties.

The life calendar approach presented here in suicide research adds to the identification of life events, distal and recent, previously associated with suicide. It also quantifies the burden of adversity over the life course, defining two distinct profiles that could benefit from distinct targeted preventive intervention.

The association between treatment-emergent suicidality as an adverse event and fluoxetine treatment was examined using a fluoxetine double-blind placebo-controlled database of clinical trials for indications other than major depressive disorder.

The database consisted of 53 trials for 16 different indications (14 psychiatric, two non-psychiatric). Within each study, patient adverse event reports and narratives were searched extensively for treatment-emergent thoughts and behaviors associated with suicide. The incidence of adverse events was classified using Food and Drug Administration (FDA) codes for completed suicide, preparatory acts, suicidal ideation and the summary category of ‘all suicidality.’ The risk difference and risk ratios between fluoxetine and placebo treatment arms were compared using Mantel–Haenszel methods.

Within this large database, patients were randomly assigned to receive treatment with either fluoxetine (n=7066) or placebo (n=4382). Treatment groups did not differ in their risk for the emergence of suicidality for any FDA code; the risk ratio for ‘all suicidality’ was 0·82 (p=0·406), and there were no completed suicides in either group. Analyses based on treatment indication (bulimia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, other psychiatric and non-psychiatric illness) also showed no significant difference in risk between treatment groups. When examined by age categories (18–24, 25–30, 31–65, and ⩾65 years), fluoxetine and placebo treatments did not result in significant risk difference for the emergence of suicidality.

The risk of treatment-emergent suicidality does not appear to be associated with fluoxetine treatment for adults with various non-MDD conditions.

More than 20% of bipolar patients may present with seasonal pattern (SP). Seasonality can alter the course of bipolar disorder. However, to date, long-term follow-up studies of bipolar patients presenting with SP are scarce. We present a 10-year follow-up study comparing clinical and demographic features of bipolar patients with and without SP.

Three hundred and twenty-five bipolar I and II patients were followed up for at least 10 years. SP was defined according to DSM-IV criteria. Clinical variables were obtained from structured interviews with the patients and their relatives. Patients with and without SP were compared regarding clinical and sociodemographic variables and a stepwise logistic regression was performed.

Seventy-seven patients (25·5%) were classified as presenting with SP, while 225 (74·5%) were considered as presenting with no significant seasonal variation. Twenty-three patients (7%) were excluded from the study because it was unclear whether they had seasonality or not. There were no differences between groups regarding demographic variables. Patients with SP predominantly presented with bipolar II disorder, depressive onset, and depressive predominant polarity. The greater burden of depression did not correlate with indirect indicators of severity, such as suicidality, hospitalizations or psychotic symptoms.

Our study links the presence of SP with both bipolar II disorder and predominant depressive component. However, we could not find any difference regarding functionality or hospitalization rates. Modifications in the criteria to define SP are suggested for a better understanding of bipolar disorder.

For families with multiple cases of bipolar disorder this study explored: attitudes towards childbearing; causal attributions for bipolar disorder, in particular the degree to which a genetic model is endorsed and its impact on the perceived stigma of bipolar disorder; and predictors of psychological distress.

Two hundred individuals (95 unaffected and 105 affected with either bipolar disorder, schizo-affective disorder – manic type, or recurrent major disorder) were surveyed, using mailed, self-administered questionnaires.

Thirty-five (35%) participants reported being ‘not at all willing to have children’ or ‘less willing to have children’ as a result of having a strong family history of bipolar disorder. Being not at all or less willing to have children was associated with perceived stigma of bipolar disorder [odds ratio (OR) 2·42, p=0·002], endorsement of a genetic model (OR 1·76, p=0·046), and being affected (OR 2·16, p=0·01). Among unaffected participants only, endorsement of a genetic model was strongly correlated with perceived stigma (rs=0·30, p=0·004). Perceiving the family environment as an important factor in causing bipolar disorder was significantly associated with psychological distress (OR 1·58, p=0·043) among unaffected participants. Among affected participants, perceived stigma was significantly correlated with psychological distress (OR 2·44, p=0·02), controlling for severity of symptoms (p<0·001).

Having a genetic explanation for bipolar disorder may exacerbate associative stigma among unaffected members from families with multiple cases of bipolar disorder, while it does not impact on perceived stigma among affected family members. Affected family members may benefit from interventions to ameliorate the adverse effects of perceived stigma.

Executive impairments have been reported in affective illness, but the influence of attention on executive performance has not been fully considered. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether executive impairments in affective illness were independent of attention impairments, and whether independent executive impairments were specific to bipolar (BP) affective illness.

Forty-two individuals with major affective disorders [20 unipolar (UP) depression and 22 BP disorder] were compared with 40 healthy controls on measures of attention and executive function. None of the patients were currently experiencing an episode of affective illness.

As expected, both UP and BP patient groups showed significant neuropsychological impairments relative to controls. Significant differences in performance on executive function measures were also observed between UP and BP patients, even after the influence of attention had been taken into account. These impairments were not attributable to current levels of affective symptomatology or to medication.

A single neuropsychological dissociation appears to be present between UP and BP affective illness, with BP individuals showing a specific executive deficit that is independent of attention impairment on the Hayling Sentence Completion Test (HSCT).

We analysed genetic and environmental influences on self-esteem and its stability in adolescence.

Finnish twins born in 1983–1987 were assessed by questionnaire at ages 14 (n=4132 twin individuals) and 17 years (n=3841 twin individuals). Self-esteem was measured using the Rosenberg global self-esteem scale and analyzed using quantitative genetic methods for twin data in the Mx statistical package.

The heritability of self-esteem was 0·62 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·56–0·68] in 14-year-old boys and 0·40 (95% CI 0·26–0·54) in 14-year-old girls, while the corresponding estimates at age 17 were 0·48 (95% CI 0·39–0·56) and 0·29 (95% CI 0·11–0·45). Rosenberg self-esteem scores at ages 14 and 17 were modestly correlated (r=0·44 in boys, r=0·46 in girls). In boys, the correlation was mainly (82%) due to genetic factors, with residual co-variation due to unique environment. In girls, genetic (31%) and common environmental (61%) factors largely explained the correlation.

In adolescence, self-esteem seems to be differently regulated in boys versus girls. A key challenge for future research is to identify environmental influences contributing to self-esteem during adolescence and determine how these factors interact with genetic influences.

The contribution of genetic factors to obsessive-compulsive (OC) symptoms has not been examined using a large population-based sample of adults. Furthermore, the extent to which there are qualitative and quantitative differences in genetic architecture between men and women with OC symptoms has not been elucidated.

We obtained the Young Adult Self Report Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (YASR-OCS) from a group of 5893 monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins, and 1304 additional siblings from the population-based Netherlands Twin Register. Structural equation modelling was used to decompose the variation in OC behaviour into genetic and environmental components and analyse quantitative and qualitative sex differences.

Familial resemblance was the same for DZ twins and non-twin siblings, which means that there was no evidence for a special twin environment. The same genetic risk factors for OC behaviour were expressed in men and women. Depending on the choice of fit index, we found small (39% for men and 50% for women) or no sex differences (47% for both men and women) in heritability. The remaining variance in liability was due to individual-specific environment.

OC behaviour showed a moderate heritability. At most, small quantitative sex differences were found in the genetic architecture of OC behaviour, and no qualitative sex differences.

To determine the efficacy and tolerability of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) as a treatment for obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) in a double-blind placebo-controlled study.

Subjects with treatment-resistant OCD were randomized to rTMS (n=10) or sham rTMS (n=8) for 10 sessions of daily stimulation over the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), with subjects and raters being blind to the treatment. Subjects were offered an open extension of up to 20 sessions of rTMS.

The two groups did not differ on change in Yale–Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (YBOCS) or Maudsley Obsessive-Compulsive Inventory scores over 10 sessions, with or without correction for depression ratings. Over 20 sessions, there was a significant reduction in total YBOCS scores, but not after controlling for depression. rTMS over 20 sessions was well tolerated.

Two weeks of rTMS over the left DLPFC is ineffective for treatment-resistant OCD.

Exposure to stressful life events increases the risk of developing a psychotic disorder. Moreover, increased reactivity to stress seems to represent part of the vulnerability for psychosis. This study aimed to investigate whether a functional polymorphism in the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT Val158Met) gene moderates the psychosis-inducing effects of stress.

A semi-experimental stress exposure paradigm was used in a sample of 306 genotyped young men (aged 19–24 years), in whom measures of psychotic symptoms were obtained at recruitment in the Greek army (exposed condition) and again after 18 months of military training (unexposed condition).

Stress exposure at army induction was associated with an increased level of psychotic symptoms. In addition, carriers of the COMT Val158Met Val allele were more susceptible to the effect of stress on the psychosis outcome than those with the Met/Met genotype (test for interaction: χ2=5·02, df=1, p=0·025).

The COMT Val158Met genotype may moderate the effect of stress on psychotic symptoms.

Although positive effects of physical activity on mental health indicators have been reported, the relationship between physical activity and the development of specific mental disorders is unclear.

A cross-sectional (12-month) and prospective-longitudinal epidemiological study over 4 years in a community cohort of 2548 individuals, aged 14–24 years at outset of the study. Physical activity and mental disorders were assessed by the DSM-IV Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) with an embedded physical activity module. Multiple logistic regression analyses controlling for age, gender and educational status were used to determine the cross-sectional and prospective associations of mental disorders and physical activity.

Cross-sectionally, regular physical activity was associated with a decreased prevalence of any and co-morbid mental disorder, due to lower rates of substance use disorders, anxiety disorders and dysthymia. Prospectively, subjects with regular physical activity had a substantially lower overall incidence of any and co-morbid mental disorder, and also a lower incidence of anxiety, somatoform and dysthymic disorder. By contrast, the incidence of bipolar disorder was increased among those with regular physical activity at baseline. In terms of the population attributable fraction (PAF), the potential for preventive effects of physical activity was considerably higher for men than for women.

Regular physical activity is associated with a substantially reduced risk for some, but not all, mental disorders and also seems to reduce the degree of co-morbidity. Further examination of the evidently complex mechanisms and pathways underlying these associations might reveal promising new research targets and procedures for targeted prevention.