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National Conditions, Strategic Politicians, and U.S. Congressional Elections: Using the Generic Vote to Forecast the 2006 House and Senate Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 September 2006

Alan I. Abramowitz
Alan I. Abramowitz
Affiliation:
Emory University
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Extract

With the 2006 midterm election fast approaching, Democrats' chances of regaining control of the House of Representatives remain unclear. On the one hand, national political conditions appear to be more favorable for Democrats than at any time since the Republican takeover of the House in 1994. A pickup of only 15 seats would give Democrats control of the House in 2007 and, since the end of World War II the average midterm seat loss for the president's party is 24 seats. Moreover, when the president's approval rating is below 50%, the average midterm seat loss is 38 seats and, according to data compiled by pollingreport.com, George W. Bush's average approval rating during the month of June was only 37%.

Type
FEATURES
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 39 , Issue 4 , October 2006 , pp. 863 - 866
Copyright
© 2006 The American Political Science Association

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References

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