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On the predictability horizon in Impact Monitoring of Near Earth Objects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 October 2024

Giacomo Tommei Open the ORCID record for Giacomo Tommei [Opens in a new window]  and
Giovanni B. Valsecchi
Giacomo Tommei*
Affiliation:
University of Pisa
Giovanni B. Valsecchi
Affiliation:
IAPS-INAF, Rome IFAC-CNR, Sesto Fiorentino
*
uemail: [email protected]
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Abstract

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The Impact Monitoring (IM) of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) is a fundamental part of the planetary defense strategy. Current NEO IM systems (Aegis, NEODyS and Sentry) scan the Confidence Region (CR) of each observed object looking for Virtual Impactors (VIs) with a time horizon of about 100 years. This procedure is performed regardless of the uncertainty with which the orbit of the object is known, and without considering whether a scattering encounter is present in the propagation time span. In view of the likely future increase of the IM workload due to higher future NEO discovery rates, it might be more reasonable to adapt the predictability horizon of the impacts to each object, taking into account the orbit uncertainty and the close encounters experienced. In this paper we discuss the problem of estimating a reasonable predictability horizon when multiple close encounters are present and start to address the problem proposing a formal mathematical definition of scattering encounter.

Keywords

Near Earth ObjectsImpact Monitoringdynamicsclose encountersscattering encounter
Type
Contributed Paper
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 18 , Symposium S382: Complex Planetary Systems II: Latest Methods for an Interdisciplinary Approach , December 2022 , pp. 185 - 190
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Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of International Astronomical Union

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