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Of mice and men: asymmetric interactions between Bordetella pathogen species

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 February 2008

O. RESTIF ,
D. N. WOLFE ,
E. M. GOEBEL ,
O. N. BJORNSTAD  and
E. T. HARVILL
O. RESTIF*
Affiliation:
Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 OES, UK
D. N. WOLFE
Affiliation:
Department of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, 115 Henning Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA
E. M. GOEBEL
Affiliation:
Huck Institute of Life Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, 519 Wartik Lab, University Park, PA 16802, USA
O. N. BJORNSTAD
Affiliation:
Departments of Entomology and Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, 501 Agricultural Sciences and Industry Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
E. T. HARVILL
Affiliation:
Department of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, 115 Henning Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA
*
*Corresponding author: Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK. Tel: +44 (0)1223 337685. Fax: +44 (0)1223 764667. E-mail: [email protected]
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Summary

In a recent experiment, we found that mice previously infected with Bordetella pertussis were not protected against a later infection with Bordetella parapertussis, while primary infection with B. parapertussis conferred cross-protection. This challenges the common assumption made in most mathematical models for pathogenic strain dynamics that cross-immunity between strains is symmetric. Here we investigate the potential consequences of this pattern on the circulation of the two pathogens in human populations. To match the empirical dominance of B. pertussis, we made the additional assumption that B. parapertussis pays a cost in terms of reduced fitness. We begin by exploring the range of parameter values that allow the coexistence of the two pathogens, with or without vaccination. We then track the dynamics of the system following the introduction of anti-pertussis vaccination. Our results suggest that (1) in order for B. pertussis to be more prevalent than B. parapertussis, the former must have a strong competitive advantage, possibly in the form of higher infectivity, and (2) because of asymmetric cross-immunity, the introduction of anti-pertussis vaccination should have little effect on the absolute prevalence of B. parapertussis. We discuss the evidence supporting these predictions, and the potential relevance of this model for other pathogens.

Keywords

whooping coughmathematical modelstrain dynamicsvaccine
Type
Research Article
Information
Parasitology , Volume 135 , Special Issue 13: Mathematical modelling of parasitic infections: from data and parameter estimation to evolutionary implications , November 2008 , pp. 1517 - 1529
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 Cambridge University Press

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