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Climate predictors and climate change projections for avian haemosporidian prevalence in Mexico

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 May 2022

Larissa Ortega-Guzmán Open the ORCID record for Larissa Ortega-Guzmán [Opens in a new window] ,
Octavio Rojas-Soto ,
Diego Santiago-Alarcon Open the ORCID record for Diego Santiago-Alarcon [Opens in a new window] ,
Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald Open the ORCID record for Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald [Opens in a new window]  and
Leonardo Chapa-Vargas Open the ORCID record for Leonardo Chapa-Vargas [Opens in a new window]
Larissa Ortega-Guzmán
Affiliation:
Instituto Potosino de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica A.C., División de Ciencias Ambientales, Camino a la Presa San José 2055, Lomas 4a Sección, C.P., 78216, San Luis Potosí, México
Octavio Rojas-Soto
Affiliation:
Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología A. C., Xalapa, Veracruz, México
Diego Santiago-Alarcon
Affiliation:
Department of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620, USA
Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald
Affiliation:
Instituto Potosino de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica A.C., División de Ciencias Ambientales, Camino a la Presa San José 2055, Lomas 4a Sección, C.P., 78216, San Luis Potosí, México
Leonardo Chapa-Vargas*
Affiliation:
Instituto Potosino de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica A.C., División de Ciencias Ambientales, Camino a la Presa San José 2055, Lomas 4a Sección, C.P., 78216, San Luis Potosí, México
*
Author for correspondence: Leonardo Chapa-Vargas, E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

Long-term, inter-annual and seasonal variation in temperature and precipitation influence the distribution and prevalence of intraerythrocytic haemosporidian parasites. We characterized the climatic niche behind the prevalence of the three main haemosporidian genera (Haemoproteus, Plasmodium and Leucocytozoon) in central-eastern Mexico, to understand their main climate drivers. Then, we projected the influence of climate change over prevalence distribution in the region. Using the MaxEnt modelling algorithm, we assessed the relative contribution of bioclimatic predictor variables to identify those most influential to haemosporidian prevalence in different avian communities within the region. Two contrasting climate change scenarios for 2070 were used to create distribution models to explain spatial turnover in prevalence caused by climate change. We assigned our study sites into polygonal operational climatic units (OCUs) and used the general haemosporidian prevalence for each OCU to indirectly measure environmental suitability for these parasites. A high statistical association between global prevalence and the bioclimatic variables ‘mean diurnal temperature range’ and ‘annual temperature range’ was found. Climate change projections for 2070 showed a significant modification of the current distribution of suitable climate areas for haemosporidians in the study region.

Keywords

Avian haemosporidiaavian malariaclimate change modelsdisease ecologylandscape parasitology
Type
Research Article
Information
Parasitology , Volume 149 , Issue 8 , July 2022 , pp. 1129 - 1144
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Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press

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