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Simple epidemiological model predicts the relationships between prevalence and abundance in ixodid ticks

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 October 2006

M. STANKO ,
B. R. KRASNOV ,
D. MIKLISOVA  and
S. MORAND
M. STANKO
Affiliation:
Institute of Zoology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Lofflerova 10, SK-04001 Kosice, Slovakia
B. R. KRASNOV
Affiliation:
Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Sede-Boqer Campus, 84990 Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel Ramon Science Center, P.O. Box 194, Mizpe Ramon 80600, Israel
D. MIKLISOVA
Affiliation:
Institute of Zoology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Lofflerova 10, SK-04001 Kosice, Slovakia
S. MORAND
Affiliation:
Center for Biology and Management of Populations, Campus International de Baillarguet, CS 30016 34988 Montferrier-sur-Lez cedex, France
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Abstract

We tested whether the prevalence of ticks can be predicted reliably from a simple epidemiological model that takes into account only mean abundance and its variance. We used data on the abundance and distribution of larvae and nymphs of 2 ixodid ticks parasitic on small mammals (Apodemus agrarius, Apodemus flavicollis, Apodemus uralensis, Clethrionomys glareolus and Microtus arvalis) in central Europe. Ixodes trianguliceps is active all year round, occurs in the study area in the mountain and sub-mountain habitats only and inhabits mainly host burrows and nests, whereas Ixodes ricinus occurs mainly during the warmer seasons, occupies a large variety of habitats and quests for hosts outside their shelters. In I. ricinus, the models with k values calculated from Taylor's power law overestimated prevalences. However, if moment estimates of k corrected for host number were used instead, expected prevalences of both larvae and nymphs I. ricinus in either host did not differ significantly from observed prevalences. In contrast, prevalences of larvae and nymphs of I. trianguliceps predicted by models using parameters of Taylor's power law did not differ significantly from observed prevalences, whereas the models with moment estimates of k corrected for host number in some cases under-estimated relatively lower larval prevalences and over-estimated relatively higher larval prevalences, but predicted nymphal prevalences well.

Keywords

abundanceepidemiological modelmammalsprevalenceticks
Type
Research Article
Information
Parasitology , Volume 134 , Issue 1 , January 2007 , pp. 59 - 68
Copyright
© 2006 Cambridge University Press

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