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A mathematical modelling approach for treatment and control of Echinococcus multilocularis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 January 2020

Aisha Khan ,
Haroon Ahmed Open the ORCID record for Haroon Ahmed [Opens in a new window] ,
Ayesha Sohail ,
Fatima Alam  and
Sami Simsek Open the ORCID record for Sami Simsek [Opens in a new window]
Aisha Khan
Affiliation:
Department of Biosciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan
Haroon Ahmed*
Affiliation:
Department of Biosciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan
Ayesha Sohail
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, Pakistan
Fatima Alam
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus, Pakistan
Sami Simsek
Affiliation:
Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Firat, Elazig, Turkey
*
Author for correspondence: Haroon Ahmed, E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
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Abstract

Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a zoonotic parasitic diseases caused by a cestode parasite known as Echinococcus multilocularis. The parasite has a wildlife cycle with definitive hosts (foxes) and small mammals as intermediate hosts (rodents) while humans are the accidental hosts. Parasite infection pressure relation to time of the year and age dependent infection pressure for parasite abundance also depend on the urbanization. The aim of current work is forecasting the thresholds via the computational analysis of the disease spread which is a useful approach since it can help to design the experimental settings with better planning and efficiency. Network analysis when interlinked with the computational techniques provides better insight into the spatial and temporal heterogeneities. In the present study, a mathematical framework that describes the transmission dynamics and control measures of E. multilocularis in foxes is documented. We used treatment of foxes with baits for the prevention of the E. multilocularis infection. A novel approach of networking, called Petri net (PN), based on density dependent differential equations, is utilized during this research. The accurate description of the transmission of the parasite and the effect of drug on it is provided to the readers in this article. The transitions, which are difficult to analyse theoretically, are presented with the aid of the discrete approach of networking. A discrete mathematical framework can prove to be an accurate and robust tool to analyse and control the parasite dynamics.

Keywords

ControlEchinococcus multilocularisfoxmodellingPetri net
Type
Research Article
Information
Parasitology , Volume 147 , Issue 3 , March 2020 , pp. 376 - 381
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Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019

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