In this paper, we answer the multiple calls for systematic analysis of paradigms and subdisciplines in political science—the search for coherence within a fragmented field. We collected a large dataset of over seven hundred thousand writings in political science from Web of Science since 1946. We found at least two waves of political science development, from behaviorism to new institutionalism. Political science appeared to be more fragmented than literature suggests—instead of ten subdisciplines, we found 66 islands. However, despite fragmentation, there is also a tendency for integration in contemporary political science, as revealed by co-existence of several paradigms and coherent and interconnected topics of the “canon of political science,” as revealed by the core-periphery structure of topic networks. This was the first large-scale investigation of the entire political science field, possibly due to newly developed methods of bibliometric network analysis: temporal bibliometric analysis and island methods of clustering. Methodological contribution of this work to network science is evaluation of islands method of network clustering against a hierarchical cluster analysis for its ability to remove misleading information, allowing for a more meaningful clustering of large weighted networks.

In relational event networks, endogenous statistics are used to summarize the past activity between actors. Typically, it is assumed that past events have equal weight on the social interaction rate in the (near) future regardless of the time that has transpired since observing them. Generally, it is unrealistic to assume that recently past events affect the current event rate to an equal degree as long-past events. Alternatively one may consider using a prespecified decay function with a prespecified rate of decay. A problem then is that the chosen decay function could be misspecified yielding biased results and incorrect conclusions. In this paper, we introduce three parametric weight decay functions (exponential, linear, and one-step) that can be embedded in a relational event model. A statistical method is presented to decide which memory decay function and memory parameter best fit the observed sequence of events. We present simulation studies that show the presence of bias in the estimates of effects of the statistics whenever the decay, as well as the memory parameter, are not properly estimated, and the ability to test different memory models against each other using the Bayes factor. Finally, we apply the methodology to two empirical case studies.

Within US professional sports, trades within one’s own division are often perceived to be disadvantageous. We ask how common this practice is. To examine this question, we construct a date-stamped network of all trades in the National Basketball Association between June 1976 and May 2019. We then use season-specific weighted exponential random graph models to estimate the likelihood of teams avoiding within-division trade partners, and how consistent that pattern is across the observed period. In addition to the empirical question, this analysis serves to demonstrate the necessity and difficulty of constructing the proper baseline for statistical comparison. We find limited-to-no support for the popular perception.

We investigate structural features and processes associated with the onset of systemic conflict using an approach which integrates complex systems theory with network modeling and analysis. We present a signed network model of cooperation and conflict dynamics in the context of international relations between states. The model evolves ties between nodes under the influence of a structural balance force and a dyad-specific force. Model simulations exhibit a sharp bifurcation from peace to systemic war as structural balance pressures increase, a bistable regime in which both peace and war stable equilibria exist, and a hysteretic reverse bifurcation from war to peace. We show how the analytical expression we derive for the peace-to-war bifurcation condition implies that polarized network structure increases susceptibility to systemic war. We develop a framework for identifying patterns of relationship perturbations that are most destabilizing and apply it to the network of European great powers before World War I. We also show that the model exhibits critical slowing down, in which perturbations to the peace equilibrium take longer to decay as the system draws closer to the bifurcation. We discuss how our results relate to international relations theories on the causes and catalysts of systemic war.

When subjected to a sudden, unanticipated threat, human groups characteristically self-organize to identify the threat, determine potential responses, and act to reduce its impact. Central to this process is the challenge of coordinating information sharing and response activity within a disrupted environment. In this paper, we consider coordination in the context of responses to the 2001 World Trade Center (WTC) disaster. Using records of communications among 17 organizational units, we examine the mechanisms driving communication dynamics, with an emphasis on the emergence of coordinating roles. We employ relational event models (REMs) to identify the mechanisms shaping communications in each unit, finding a consistent pattern of behavior across units with very different characteristics. Using a simulation-based “knock-out” study, we also probe the importance of different mechanisms for hub formation. Our results suggest that, while preferential attachment and pre-disaster role structure generally contribute to the emergence of hub structure, temporally local conversational norms play a much larger role in the WTC case. We discuss broader implications for the role of microdynamics in driving macroscopic outcomes, and for the emergence of coordination in other settings.

This paper provides an examination of inter-organizational collaboration in the UK research system. Data are collected on organizational collaboration on projects funded by four key UK research councils: Arts and Humanities Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council. The organizational partnerships include both academic and nonacademic institutions. A collaboration network is created for each research council, and an exponential random graph model is applied to inform on the mechanisms underpinning collaborative tie formation on research council-funded projects. We find that in the sciences, collaborative patterns are much more hierarchical and concentrated in a small handful of actors compared to the social sciences and humanities projects. Institutions that are members of the elite Russell Group (a set of 24 high-ranking UK universities) are much more likely to be involved in collaborations across research councils.

Undirected, binary network data consist of indicators of symmetric relations between pairs of actors. Regression models of such data allow for the estimation of effects of exogenous covariates on the network and for prediction of unobserved data. Ideally, estimators of the regression parameters should account for the inherent dependencies among relations in the network that involve the same actor. To account for such dependencies, researchers have developed a host of latent variable network models; however, estimation of many latent variable network models is computationally onerous and which model is best to base inference upon may not be clear. We propose the probit exchangeable (PX) model for undirected binary network data that is based on an assumption of exchangeability, which is common to many of the latent variable network models in the literature. The PX model can represent the first two moments of any exchangeable network model. We leverage the EM algorithm to obtain an approximate maximum likelihood estimator of the PX model that is extremely computationally efficient. Using simulation studies, we demonstrate the improvement in estimation of regression coefficients of the proposed model over existing latent variable network models. In an analysis of purchases of politically aligned books, we demonstrate political polarization in purchase behavior and show that the proposed estimator significantly reduces runtime relative to estimators of latent variable network models, while maintaining predictive performance.

The hypothesis that violence—especially gang violence—behaves like a contagious disease has grown in popularity in recent years. Scholars have long observed the tendency for violence to cluster in time and space, but little research has focused on empirically unpacking the mechanisms that make violence contagious. In the context of gang violence, retaliation is the prototypical mechanism to explain why violence begets violence. In this study, we leverage relational event models (REMs)—an underutilized yet particularly well-suited modeling technique to study the dynamics of inter-gang violence. We use REMs to examine gang violence’s tendency to replicate—for which retaliation is but one plausible mechanism—and its tendency to diffuse to other groups. We rely on data on conflicts between gangs in a region of Los Angeles over 3 years. We consider how the characteristics of gangs, their spatial proximity, networks of established rivalries, and the evolving history, directionality, and structure of conflicts predict future inter-gang conflicts. While retaliation is an important mechanism for the replication of violence, established rivalries, and inertia—a gang’s tendency to continue attacking the same group—are more important drivers of future violence. We also find little evidence for an emerging pecking order or status hierarchy between gangs suggested by other scholars. However, we find that gangs are more likely to attack multiple gangs in quick succession. We propose that gang violence is more likely to diffuse to other groups because of the boost of internal group processes an initial attack provides.