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The development of the UK economy over the past four years has been marked by a very favourable and unexpected combination of steady growth and low inflation with prices growing on average at about the same rate as real income. In addition, claimant unemployment has fallen by over 800,000 since its peak at the beginning of 1993 and the current account deficit of the balance of payments has remained small and, somewhat erratically, declined.
The forecast was compiled using the latest version of the National Institute Domestic Econometric Model. I am grateful to Martin Weale, Nigel Pain and Ray Barrell for helpful comments and discussion and to Sarah Leeming for help with the database and charts. The forecast was completed on October 11 1996, some subsequent information is incorporated in the text.