Asperity-scale pad deformation and dynamic pad-wafer contact area are crucial to the fundamental understanding of material removal and defect formation mechanisms in CMP. Pad asperity stress and strain are also central to characterizing pad wear rate during polishing and cut rate during conditioning. While it is very difficult to isolate and measure stress and strain in individual asperities, finite element modeling may be used in conjunction with experimental surface characterization to predict asperity-scale deformation and pad-wafer contact. Asperity sub-domains up to 1270 microns across are reproduced from three-dimensional point cloud data on porous polyurethane CMP pads obtained by confocal microscopy, meshed to high resolution, and analyzed using ABAQUS finite element software. Physical properties are derived from dynamic mechanical experiments. Pad stacks are simulated both with and without sub-pads. Results show that while a sub-pad increases pad-wafer contact area overall, it limits the local spreading of individual contact regions as polishing load increases. This finding identifies a direct mechanical origin of the trade-off in pad design between wafer-scale and die-scale planarity. As expected, the real contact area between a pad and wafer is much smaller than the cross-sectional or “bearing” area, but the difference is notably greater when a sub-pad is present. Values of asperity stress and strain under typical CMP polishing pressures reveal that plastic deformation takes place both on and beneath the contacting surface. Hence upon release of the polishing load the asperities do not fully rebound to their pre-compressed shapes. Each pass under the wafer thus reshapes the pad asperities such that a slightly different texture is presented upon the next pass. These deformation mechanics clarify the impact of top pad and sub-pad properties on real contact area, allowing better optimization of CMP pad performance.