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Further significance tests

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 October 2008

Harold Jeffreys
Harold Jeffreys
Affiliation:
St John's College
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Extract

In a previous paper (afterwards referred to as Paper I) tests have been given for the significance of some quantities found statistically. The results are given in the form P(q | θh)/P (˜ q|θh); here h denotes the previous knowledge and θ the experimental evidence used, while q is the hypothesis that all the variations outstanding can be attributed to accidental error or random variation, and ˜q the hypothesis that at least part of them is systematic. It has been supposed in the analysis that q and ˜q are equally probable on the information h; but if they are not, the only alteration is that the ratios evaluated now represent

If successive batches of relevant information are available the total effect on the probability of q can therefore be got by multiplying the values of

given by the investigations separately. In each case the assumption that q has prior probability ½ is really a practical working rule rather than a statement of fact.

Type
Research Article
Information
Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society , Volume 32 , Issue 3 , October 1936 , pp. 416 - 445
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge Philosophical Society 1936

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References

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