Consider the problem of a benevolent government that needs to finance the provision of a public good with distortionary taxes and cannot commit to policies beyond the current period. In such a case, public expenditure is inefficiently low. If the government further loses the ability to set tax rates before production in the period takes place, then it will not internalize how its policy choices distort current factor markets. Thus, to counterbalance the costs of future distortions, it increases public good provision. For a calibrated economy, removing within-period commitment implies a welfare gain worth half a percent of yearly consumption. A similar gain can be obtained if instead, capital depreciation is allowed to be fully deducted from taxable income.

We aim at establishing whether the institutional adoption of inflation targeting has changed the conduct of monetary policy. To do so, we test the hypothesis of inflation targeting translating into a stronger response to inflation in a Taylor rule with three alternative econometric models: a structural break model, a time-varying parameter model with stochastic volatility, and a Markov-switching VAR model. We conclude that inflation targeting has not led to a stronger response to inflation in the reaction function of the monetary authority. This result suggests that inflation targeting being meant to anchor inflation expectations through enhanced credibility and accountability, it may enable a central bank to stabilize inflation without pursuing aggressive action toward inflation variations.

Time series analysis of macroeconomic and financial variables requires a deep understanding of many econometric pitfalls if an empirical researcher hopes to avoid making spurious inferences. This understanding is the hallmark of Charles Nelson's research over four decades and it develops out of a healthy skepticism about “conventional wisdom,” yet a pragmatic belief that, despite the econometric hurdles, it is possible to learn from data. The papers in this special issue build on Charles Nelson's research legacy to address many important empirical questions related to business cycles, financial markets, and inflation, always with respect for the data, but wary of spurious inferences.

Since 1997, the Department of Economics of the University of Crete has organized an annual international conference on macroeconomic analysis and international finance. The articles included in this special issue are refereed versions of papers presented at the 17th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance held at the University Campus, Rethymno, 30 May–1 June 2013, and submitted to Macroeconomic Dynamics in an open call for papers. The central theme of this Special Issue is Growth, Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and Financial Frictions. The topics discussed in this issue are endogenous growth and public investment and taxation; optimal inflation and fiscal and monetary policy; foreign reserve accumulation and China's exchange rate policy; and liquidity shocks and financial frictions. We begin the Special Issue with an overview of these papers.

A time-varying-parameter VAR for real output growth and inflation is estimated with annual U.S. series dating back to 1870. Volatility for both variables rises quickly with World War I and its aftermath, stays high until the end of World War II, and drops rapidly until the 1960s. This Postwar Moderation yields the largest decline in volatilities, surpassing the Great Moderation. Conditional on temporary shocks, inflation and output growth are positively correlated. Our model implies that aggregate demand played a key role in inflation volatility fluctuations. Conversely, the two variables are negatively correlated conditional on permanent shocks. Our model suggests that aggregate supply played an important role in output volatility fluctuations. Most impulse responses support an aggregate supply interpretation for permanent shocks. However, before World War I, a permanent increase in output raised the price level at longer horizons, and these responses are frequently statistically significant. This evidence supports the hypothesis that aggregate demand had a long-run positive effect on output during the pre–World War I period.

We explore real-time adaptive nonlinear learning dynamics in stochastic macroeconomic systems. Rather than linearizing nonlinear Euler equations where expectations play a role around a steady state, we instead approximate the nonlinear expected values using the method of parameterized expectations. Further, we assume that these approximated expectations are updated in real time as new data become available. We argue that this method of real-time parameterized expectations learning provides a plausible alternative to real-time adaptive learning dynamics under linearized versions of the same nonlinear system, and we provide a comparison of the two approaches.

This study addresses two significant limitations in the literature on cross-country expenditure comparisons: (a) treatment of all countries, large and small, as single entities with no spatial differences inside the countries, and (b) use of Divisia price indices, rather than Rank 3 preference-based “exact price” indices, in the expenditure comparisons. This paper compares alternative preference consistent methods for estimating spatial price differences in a large heterogeneous country, namely India, that are benchmarked against the spatial prices generated by the Laspyeres and Tornqvist price indices. Unlike the use of conventional price indices, the use of demand-systems-based methods allows the incorporation of price-induced substitution effects between items. The paper illustrates the usefulness of the methodology by using the “exact” spatial price indices, in conjunction with the inequality-sensitive welfare measure due to Sen, to rank the Indian states and examine changes in ranking during one of the most significant periods in independent India. The results have methodological and empirical implications that extend far beyond India.

This paper builds a small-open-economy nonscale-growth model with negative population growth and investigates the relationship between trade patterns and per capita consumption growth. Under free trade, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is small, the home country becomes an agricultural country. Then the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on the world population growth rate. On the other hand, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is large, the home country becomes a manufacturing country. Then the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on both the home country and the world population growth rates. Moreover, the home country is better off under free trade than under autarky in terms of per capita consumption growth irrespective of whether the population growth is positive or negative.

This paper employs the state-space model to reexamine the fundamental issue in finance of whether it is the expected returns or the expected dividends growth that is primarily responsible for stock price variations. We use Bayesian methods to show that there is a substantial uncertainty about the contributions of expected returns and expected dividends to fluctuations in the price–dividend ratio when the aggregate returns and dividends data are used. The substantial uncertainty of the contributions results from the model being weakly identified. Our finding challenges the notion long held in the existing literature that it is the expected returns that contribute most to price–dividend variations.

This paper seeks to provide a theoretical explanation for the weak association between measures of financial structure—as defined by the mixture of bank-based and market-based financial systems in an economy—and economic development. Lenders fund risky investment projects of firms by drawing up loan contracts in the presence of an informational asymmetry. An optimal contract entails the issue of debt, equity, or a mix of the two. The equilibrium choice of contract and the financial structure depend on the state of the economy, which in turn depends on the contracting regime. Based on this analysis, the paper provides a theory that can explain the wide diversity of financial structure among middle-income countries.

This paper explores the introduction of collective risk-reallocation elements into defined-contribution pension contracts. We consider status-contingent, age-contingent, and asset-contingent arrangements to reallocate risk among participants. Eliminating asset market risk for the retired raises their welfare, whereas it lowers the welfare of the workers, despite the fact that they benefit later from the same arrangement. Overall welfare falls. The welfare effects are largest when personal and pension portfolios are optimally chosen. Allowing for intragenerational heterogeneity, the highest-skilled retirees benefit most, whereas the highest-skilled workers lose most. Our main results are qualitatively robust to a number of model variations and extensions.

This paper analyzes government spending multipliers in a two-country model of a monetary union with price stickiness and home bias in consumption where monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Government spending multipliers under this constraint are computed and compared with fiscal multipliers in normal times, that is, where the central bank sets the nominal interest rate via a Taylor rule. The trade elasticity and the parameter measuring home bias in consumption play an important role in determining the size of the multiplier. The multipliers are not necessarily large under the ZLB constraint. However, compared with the fiscal multipliers when the central bank sets the nominal interest rate according to a Taylor rule, the multipliers under the ZLB are bigger. Moreover, the persistence parameter of the binding ZLB plays a crucial role.

Although a number of economists have tried to revive the idea of nominal GDP targeting since the financial crisis of 2008, very little has been said about how this objective might be achieved in practice. This paper adopts and extends a strategy first outlined by Holbrook Working and later employed in the P-Star model. It presents a series of theoretical and empirical results to argue that Divisia monetary aggregates can be controlled by the Federal Reserve and that the trend velocities of these aggregates exhibit the stability required to make long-run targeting of a nominal objective feasible.

This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a two-sector small open economy to analyze how the Maastricht criteria modify a fully credible optimal monetary policy in the Economic and Monetary Union accession countries. We show that if the country is not constrained by the criteria, optimal policy should stabilize fluctuations in PPI inflation, in the aggregate output gap, and in the domestic and international terms of trade. The optimal policy constrained permanently by the Maastricht criteria is characterized by reduced variability of the nominal exchange rate, CPI inflation, and the nominal interest rate and by lower optimal targets for CPI inflation and nominal interest rate. This policy results in higher variability and nonzero means for both PPI inflation and output gap, thus leading to additional, but small, welfare costs compared with the unconstrained policy.

We investigate sources of economic fluctuations in Chile during 1998–2007 within the framework of a standard neoclassical growth model with time-varying frictions (wedges). We analyze the relative importance of efficiency, labor, investment, and government/trade wedges for business cycles in Chile. The purpose of this exercise is twofold: (i) focusing the policy discussion on the most important wedges in the economy and (ii) identifying which broad class of models would present fruitful avenues for further research. We find that different wedges have played different roles during our studied period, but that the efficiency, labor, and investment wedges have had the greatest impact. We also compare our results with existing studies on emerging and developed economies.

This paper uses hedonic regression techniques to decompose the price of a house into land and structure components using real estate sales data for Tokyo. To get sensible results, a nonlinear regression model using data that covered multiple time periods was used. Collinearity between the amounts of land and structure in each residential property leads to inaccurate estimates for the land and structure value of a property. This collinearity problem was solved by using exogenous information on the rate of growth of construction costs in Tokyo in order to get useful constant-quality subindices for the price of land and structures separately.

The limited asset-market participation hypothesis has triggered a debate on DSGE models' determinacy when the central bank implements a standard Taylor rule. We reconsider the issue here in the context of an exogenous money supply rule, documenting the role of nominal and real frictions in determining these results. A general conclusion is that frictions matter for stability insofar as they redistribute income between Ricardian and non-Ricardian households when shocks hit the economy. Finally, we extend the model to allow for the possibility that consumers who do not participate in the market for interest-bearing securities hold money. In this case, endogenous monetary transfers between the two groups make it possible to smooth consumption differences, and the model is determinate, provided that the non-negativity constraint on individual money holdings is satisfied.

In this paper, I analyze an optimal loan contract between a risk-neutral financial intermediary and a risk-averse household, where the household receives a stochastic endowment stream that grows over time and is unable to commit to the contract. I examine the household's welfare in the equilibrium contract, and find that, first, under sufficiently rapid endowment growth, the presence of uncertainty in endowment may improve the household's welfare through relaxation of its commitment problem, and second, regardless of the endowment growth rate, the household's welfare is nonincreasing in the persistence of endowment. Numerical analysis suggests that welfare improvement from uncertainty may occur under reasonable parameters. These results have potentially important practical implications—for example, for developing countries that rely on external borrowing.

We propose a unified identification scheme to identify monetary shocks and track their propagation through the economy. We combine three approaches dealing with the consequences of monetary shocks. First, we adjust a state space version of the P-star type model employing money overhang as the driving force of inflation. Second, we identify the contemporaneous impact of monetary policy shocks by applying a sign restriction identification scheme to the reduced form given by the state space signal equations. Third, to ensure that our results are not distorted by the measurement error exhibited by the official monetary data, we employ the Divisia M4 monetary aggregate provided by the Center for Financial Stability. Our approach overcomes one of the major difficulties of previous models by using a data-driven identification of equilibrium velocity. Thus, we are able to show that a P-star model can fit U.S. data and money did indeed matter in the United States.

In this paper, we study the positive and normative implications of financial shocks in a standard New Keynesian model that includes banks and frictions in the market for bank capital. We show how such frictions influence materially the effects of bank liquidity shocks and the properties of optimal policy. In particular, they limit the scope for countercyclical monetary policy in the face of these shocks. A fiscal policy instrument can complement monetary policy by offsetting the balance-sheet effects of these shocks, and jointly optimal policies attain the same equilibrium that monetary policy (alone) could attain in the absence of equity-market frictions.