The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition calculates trend and cycle for an integrated time series. However, there are two ways to interpret the results from the decomposition. One interpretation is that the optimal long-run forecast (minus any deterministic drift) used to calculate the Beveridge–Nelson trend corresponds to an estimate of an unobserved permanent component. The other interpretation is that the optimal long-run forecast defines an observable permanent component. This paper examines some issues surrounding these two interpretations and provides empirical support for interpreting the Beveridge–Nelson trend as an estimate when considering macroeconomic data.

An increase in inflation causes people to hold smaller real balances and to speed up their spending. Virtually all monetary models capture the first—inflation tax—effect. Few capture the second—hot potato—effect. Those that do associate negative welfare consequences with the hot potato effect. Because both the inflation tax and the hot potato effect imply that inflation has negative effects on welfare, an optimal monetary policy is characterized by the Friedman rule. In the model presented here, there is a hot potato effect, but—all else held constant—the hot potato effect has positive consequences for welfare. As a result, a departure from the Friedman rule can be socially desirable.

This paper seeks to answer the following questions: Do oil price shocks affect firms' investment decisions? Do oil price shocks affect investment decisions differentially depending on firm-specific uncertainty? Over what time horizon do oil price shocks affect high-uncertainty firms? Is the intensity of the oil price shock important, or just its existence? It is found that oil price shocks depress firms' investment decisions, and do so differentially by depressing investment more for more uncertain firms. Oil shocks affect investment for at least the first and second year after the shock. In the short term, the mere existence of a shock drives most of the effect. In the long term, the intensity of the oil shock is also important. Bloom, Bond, and Van Reenan's result [Review of Economic Studies 74, 391–415 (2007)] regarding responsiveness to demand shocks being eroded at more uncertain firms for data on U.K. firms is replicated using data on U.S. firms and persists after oil shocks are considered.

A canonical flexible-price international real–business cycle model with incomplete financial markets can address the exchange rate–volatility puzzle, the exchange rate–persistence puzzle, and the consumption real–exchange rate anomaly, as well as the quantity anomaly. Crucial for the success of the model is the choice of the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign produced goods. The paper shows that the range of this parameter that allows the model to address these international macroeconomics anomalies is very narrow. Furthermore, the paper highlights an anomalous relationship between real–exchange rate persistence and the elasticity of substitution between home- and foreign-produced goods.

We study a generic optimal control problem with a stock that accumulates with constant delay. We show that the optimal system dynamics reduces to a system of ordinary differential equations, implying monotonic optimal paths, if the objective function is additively separable in the stock and the control. This is, however, not true for general objective functions, which may exhibit nonmonotonic and oscillatory optimal paths. The reason is that the impact of the stock on the objective depends on the current level of the control, whereas the control influences the dynamics of the stock with a delay.

Throughout the second half of the 20th century, women in the United States decided to move increasingly into the labor market. This paper investigates the growth of the service sector as an explanation for the increase in women's employment. It develops an economic model that can account for the increase in women's employment and the growth of the service sector at the same time. A growth model with two sectors and a home production technology is constructed in order to quantitatively assess the contribution of sectoral productivity differences to the change in women's employment decision. The sectoral productivities are taken from the data. This model demonstrates that a higher rate of productivity growth in market services compared to home services can account for a large fraction of the observed increase in women's labor supply from 1950 to 2005.

We study a competitive dynamic financial market subject to a transient selling pressure when market makers face a capacity constraint on their number of trades per unit of time with outside investors. We show that profit-maximizing market makers provide liquidity in order to manage their trading capacity constraint optimally over time: they use slack trading capacity early to accumulate assets when the selling pressure is strong in order to relax their trading capacity constraint and sell to buyers more quickly when the selling pressure subsides. When the trading capacity constraint binds, the bid–ask spread is strictly positive, widening and narrowing as market makers build up and unwind their inventories. Because the equilibrium asset allocation is constrained Pareto-optimal, the time variations in bid–ask spread are not a symptom of inefficient liquidity provision.

In this paper we investigate whether a standard life-cycle model in which households purchase nondurable consumption and consumer durables and face idiosyncratic income and mortality risk as well as endogenous borrowing constraints can account for two key patterns of consumption and asset holdings over the life cycle. First, consumption expenditures on both durable and nondurable goods are hump-shaped. Second, young households keep very few liquid assets and hold most of their wealth in consumer durables. In our model durables play a dual role: they both provide consumption services and act as collateral for loans. A plausibly parameterized version of the model predicts that the interaction of consumer durables and endogenous borrowing constraints induces durables accumulation early in life and higher consumption of nondurables and accumulation of financial assets later in the life cycle, of an order of magnitude consistent with observed data.

We compare two stylized frameworks for the implementation of monetary policy. The first framework relies only on standing facilities, whereas the second framework relies only on open-market operations. We show that the Friedman rule cannot be implemented when the central bank uses standing facilities only. For a given rate of inflation, we show that standing facilities unambiguously achieve higher welfare than just conducting open-market operations. We conclude that elements of both frameworks should be combined. Also, our results suggest that any monetary policy implementation framework should remunerate both required and excess reserves.

In this paper we investigate the effects of oil price uncertainty and its asymmetry on real economic activity in the United States, in the context of a bivariate vector autoregression with GARCH-in-mean errors. The model allows for the possibilities of spillovers and asymmetries in the variance–covariance structure for real output growth and the change in the real price of oil. Our measure of oil price uncertainty is the conditional variance of the oil price–change forecast error. We isolate the effects of volatility in the change in the price of oil and its asymmetry on output growth and employ simulation methods to calculate generalized impulse response functions and volatility impulse response functions to trace the effects of independent shocks on the conditional means and the conditional variances, respectively, of the variables. We find that oil price uncertainty has a negative effect on output, and that shocks to the price of oil and its uncertainty have asymmetric effects on output.

We develop an overlapping-generations model for a closed economy with uncertainty on labor income and mortality risk to show that unfunded social security programs may increase welfare in economies where agents are affected by self-control problems à la Gul and Pesendorfer (2001, Econometrica 69, 1403). We depart from the existing literature by setting the agent's preference parameters to match target levels of macro-variables observed in the real U.S. economy. In our approach, economies with tempted and nontempted agents are indistinguishable in terms of aggregate consumption, labor, and saving behavior when social security provides a replacement rate of 40% (as in the United States). This situation makes agents bear costly self-control problems over more years. Our simulations indicate that social security improves welfare with degrees of temptation equal to 11% or higher. A social security program with a replacement rate of 40% finds support for degrees of temptation not lower than 15%.

This paper provides an assessment of public capital spending within a macroeconomic policy model with explicit monetary and fiscal interactions, in contrast to most of the existing analyses of public investment that utilize “real” general equilibrium models. As such, we are able to consider the interactions of public investment with inflation, taxation, and public debt. Our results indicate that a clear trade-off exists between the costs and benefits of public investment, as is the case in the existing literature. However, the use of a monetary-fiscal policy model rather than a “real” general equilibrium one enables us to trace the macroeconomic channels including monetary ones through which these costs and benefits are transmitted to the rest of the economy. To the extent that these costs and benefits vary between countries, our results provide a potential explanation for the mixed empirical findings on the real effects of public capital spending.

This paper tests the three leading specifications of asymmetric and possibly nonlinear feedback from the real price of oil to U.S. industrial production and its sectoral components. We show that the evidence for such feedback is sensitive to the estimation period. Support for a nonlinear model is strongest for samples starting before 1973. Instead, using post-1973 data only, the evidence against symmetry becomes considerably weaker. For example, at the aggregate level, there is no evidence against the hypothesis of symmetric responses to oil price innovations of typical magnitude, consistent with results of Kilian and Vigfusson [Quantitative Economics, 2(3), 419–453 (2011)] for U.S. real GDP. There is strong evidence of asymmetries at the disaggregate level, however, especially for industries that are energy-intensive in production (such as chemicals) or that produce goods that are energy-intensive in use (such as transportation equipment). Our analysis suggests that these asymmetries may be obscured in the aggregate data and highlights the importance of developing multisector models of the transmission of oil price shocks.

We show that the introduction of a constant tariff or subsidy levied on foreign energy can lead to a rich set of endogenous fluctuations around the unique steady state, including stable 2-, 4-, 8-, and 15-cycles, quasiperiodic orbits, and chaos. This is demonstrated in a standard neoclassical growth model with social increasing returns to scale. Numerical exercises could be viewed from a methodological perspective as illustrating that capital income taxes and tariffs are equivalent in generating endogenous fluctuations because Guo and Lansing [Guo, J.T. and K.J. Lansing (2002) Fiscal policy, increasing returns and endogenous fluctuations. Macroeconomic Dynamics 6, 633–664] show that a constant capital tax or subsidy has the same effect on the model dynamics in a one-sector closed economy.