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Explaining the Rise of the Left in Latin America

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2022

Luisa Blanco  and
Robin Grier
Luisa Blanco
Affiliation:
Pepperdine University
Robin Grier
Affiliation:
University of Oklahoma
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Abstract

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Latin American politics has taken a left turn in the past decade, with an increasing number of chief executives hailing from left-of-center parties. We investigate the political and socioeconomic factors explaining political ideology of the chief executive in a sample of one hundred elections taking place between 1975 and 2007 in eighteen Latin American countries. We find that the commodity booms in agricultural, mining, and oil are positively and significantly related to the probability that a country will have a chief executive from a left-of-center political party. However, for oil exports, we observe that this effect holds only for Venezuela. We also show that past political discrimination and government crises are positively and significantly associated with a move to more left-wing chief executives. Openness to trade and having a president from the right in the previous presidential term negatively affects the probability of having a more liberal president, although the effect of trade openness disappears when the incumbent president is a conservative. We also find that when a government crisis occurs during a term with a president from the right, the probability of having a president from the left in the following term increases significantly.

Resumen

Resumen

La política en Latinoamérica ha tomado un giro a la izquierda en la última década, donde el número de presidentes de la izquierda y centro-izquierda ha incrementado. Este artículo analiza los factores socioeconómicos y políticos que explican los cambios en la ideología política de los presidentes elegidos con una muestra de cien elecciones desde 1975 al 2007 en dieciocho países latinoamericanos. En este estudio encontramos que la bonanza en el mercado de la materia prima, en específico la agricultura, la minería y el petróleo, tiene una relación positiva con la probabilidad de que un país elija un gobierno de izquierda. Sin embargo, encontramos que en el caso del petróleo, la relación positiva sólo existe en Venezuela. También encontramos que la discriminación política y las crisis de gobierno están positivamente relacionadas con un movimiento hacia la izquierda en el poder ejecutivo. La apertura al comercio internacional y haber tenido un presidente de derecha en el término previo a la elección afecta negativamente la probabilidad de que un gobierno de izquierda sea elegido, pero el efecto de la apertura al comercio internacional desaparece cuando hay un gobierno de derecha en el período anterior. También encontramos que cuando hay una crisis de gobierno y un presidente de derecha está en el poder, la probabilidad de que gane un presidente de izquierda en las próximas elecciones incrementa.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 48 , Issue 1 , 2013 , pp. 68 - 90
Copyright
Copyright © 2013 by the Latin American Studies Association

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