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Conditional Cash Transfer Programs, the Economy, and Presidential Elections in Latin America

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2022

Diego Sanches Corrêa
Diego Sanches Corrêa*
Affiliation:
University of São Paulo
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Abstract

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Numerous recent country studies demonstrate that beneficiaries of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs vote for incumbents at higher rates. It is reasonable to expect that, as a consequence, those incumbents will perform better nationally in the next election. This article warns against such an extrapolation. It analyzes an original cross-national data set with information for eighty-four Latin American presidential elections that took place between 1990 and 2010. My results reveal that CCT programs have not improved incumbents' aggregate electoral performances in the region, contradicting common speculative claims of the literature. They also confirm the classic economic voting hypothesis that incumbents are held accountable in the polls for their economic performance.

Resumo

Resumo

Diversos estudos recentes mostram que beneficiários de programas de transferência de renda condicionada (TRC) votam em incumbentes com maior frequência. Consequentemente, é razoável esperar que esses incumbentes tenham um melhor desempenho na eleição seguinte. Este artigo serve de advertência contra este tipo de extrapolação. Nele, eu analiso um banco de dados cross-nacional com informações sobre oitenta e quatro eleições presidenciais latino-americanas que ocorreram entre 1990 e 2010. Meus resultados revelam que programas de TRC não melhoraram o desempenho eleitoral agregado de incumbentes, contradizendo especulações frequentes da literatura. Eles também confirmam a hipótese clássica do voto económico de que incumbentes são chamados a prestar contas nas eleições pelo desempenho da economia.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 50 , Issue 2 , 2015 , pp. 63 - 85
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 by the Latin American Studies Association

Footnotes

I appreciate the advice and suggestions from my former PhD advisor José Cheibub during the time I did the research that led to this article. I also want to thank professors Matthew Winters, Damarys Canache, and Rodolfo Hoffman, as well as three anonymous referees, for their insightful comments and critiques. All shortcomings of this article are my own responsibility.

References

APPENDIX A: SOURCES AND DATES OF INFORMATION ON CCT PROGRAMS

Argentina 2003: Ministerio de Desarrollo SocialGoogle Scholar
Argentina October 2007: Ministerio de Desarrollo Social (Resumen Ejecutivo 2007)Google Scholar
Bolivia 2009: Bono Juancito Pinto: Ministerio de Educación; Bono Juana Azurduy: Ministerio de Salud e Deportes (“Estado del Ministerio de Salud y Deportes, durante la gestión 2005-2008”. Estado Plurinacional de Bolivia - Ministerio de Salud y Deportes). Note: Only the number of granted women and children is published, and not the number of households.Google Scholar
Brazil July 2002: Bolsa Escola: Sistema Bolsa Escola (SIBES), Ministério da Educação; Bolsa Alimentação, Ministério da SaúdeGoogle Scholar
Brazil December 2006: Ministério de Desenvolvimento Social e Combate à FomeGoogle Scholar
Brazil December 2010: Ministério de Desenvolvimento Social e Combate à FomeGoogle Scholar
Chile 2005: Secretaría Ejecutiva del Chile Solidario, Ministerio de PlanificaciónGoogle Scholar
Chile May 2009: Ministerio de PlanificaciónGoogle Scholar
Colombia December 2002: Agencia Presidencial para la Acción Social y para la Cooperación InternacionalGoogle Scholar
Colombia June 6, 2006: Agencia Presidencial para la Acción Social y para la Cooperación InternacionalGoogle Scholar
Colombia June 30, 2010: Agencia Presidencial para la Acción Social y para la Cooperación InternacionalGoogle Scholar
Rica, Costa December 31, 2009: Instituto Mixto de Ayuda SocialGoogle Scholar
Dominican Republic May 2008: Programa Solidaridad: Nómina de Beneficiários 05/2008Google Scholar
Ecuador October 2006: Ministerio de Inclusión Económica y Social (Programa de Protección Social)Google Scholar
Ecuador April 2009: Ministerio de Inclusión Económica y Social (Programa de Protección Social)Google Scholar
Salvador, El March 2009: Fondo de Inversión Social para el Desarrollo LocalGoogle Scholar
Guatemala April 31, 2011: Mi Familia Progresa, Consejo de Cohesión SocialGoogle Scholar
Honduras 1993: Inter-American Development Bank (11/10/1998 Loan Proposal)Google Scholar
Honduras 1997: Inter-American Development Bank (11/10/1998 Loan Proposal)Google Scholar
Honduras 2001: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, United NationsGoogle Scholar
Honduras 2005: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, United NationsGoogle Scholar
Honduras 2009: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, United NationsGoogle Scholar
Mexico May 6, 2000: Secretaría de Desarrollo SocialGoogle Scholar
Mexico May 6, 2006: Secretaría de Desarrollo SocialGoogle Scholar
Nicaragua 2001: Inter-American Development Bank (Informe de Terminación de Proyecto: Red de Protección Social, Fase 1)Google Scholar
Nicaragua 2006: Moore 2009Google Scholar
Panama 2009: Ministerio de Desarrollo Social (Avance al Mes de Julio de 2010)Google Scholar
Paraguay December 2007: Contraloría General de la Republica (Audit Report)Google Scholar
Peru April 2006: Programa Juntos, Portal de Transparencia (Plan Operativo 2008)Google Scholar
Peru March 4, 2011: Programa Juntos, Porta de Transparencia (Plan Operativo 2011 Reformulado) UruguayGoogle Scholar
Peru January 3, 2009: Ministerio de Desarrollo Social, Observatorio Social de Programas e IndicadoresGoogle Scholar

APPENDIX B: SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Argentina: Ministerio del Interior (all elections)Google Scholar
Bolivia: Tribunal Supremo Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar
Brazil: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010); Nohlen 2005b (1989)Google Scholar
Chile: Servicio Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar
Colombia: Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil (1998), 2002, 2006, 2010); Nohlen 2005b (1986, 1990, 1994)Google Scholar
Costa Rica: Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (all elections)Google Scholar
Dominican Republic: Junta Central Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar
Ecuador: Consejo Nacional Electoral (2002), 2006, 2009); Nohlen 2005b (1988, 1992, 1996, 1998)Google Scholar
El Salvador: Tribunal Supremo Electoral (1994, 1999, 2004, 2009); Nohlen 2005a (1989) Guatemala: Tribunal Supremo Electoral (1999, 2003, 2007); Nohlen 2005a (1985, 1990, 1995)Google Scholar
Honduras: Tribunal Supremo Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar
Mexico: Instituto Federal Electoral (1994, 2000, 2006); Nohlen 2005a (1988)Google Scholar
Nicaragua: Consejo Supremo Electoral (2001), 2006); Nohlen 2005a (1984, 1990, 1996)Google Scholar
Panama: Tribunal Electoral (1994, 1999, 2004, 2009), Nohlen 2005a (1989)Google Scholar
Paraguay: Justicia Electoral (1998), 2003, 2008); Nohlen 2005b (1989, 1993)Google Scholar
Peru: Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (all elections)Google Scholar
Uruguay: Corte Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar
Venezuela: Consejo Nacional Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar

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