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Climate Change and Grapevines: A Simulation Study for the Mediterranean Basin*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 December 2014

Roberto Ferrise ,
Giacomo Trombi ,
Marco Moriondo  and
Marco Bindi
Roberto Ferrise*
Affiliation:
Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy
Giacomo Trombi
Affiliation:
Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy; e-mail: [email protected].
Marco Moriondo
Affiliation:
CNR-IBIMET, Via G. Caproni 8, 50145 Florence, Italy; e-mail: [email protected].
Marco Bindi
Affiliation:
Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy; e-mail: [email protected].
*
(corresponding author). e-mail: [email protected].
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Abstract

The present paper aims to assess the impacts of climate change on grapevine cultivation in the Mediterranean basin by using three regional climatic models (RCMs), which were designed specifically for high-resolution simulation of climate in that region. RCM outputs were used to feed a grapevine growth simulation model, which was developed, tested, and calibrated for the Sangiovese variety. The study area was identified by implementing a bioclimatic classification of the regions based on the Winkler Index (ranging from 1,700 to 1,900 thermal units). The results indicated that the projected increasing temperatures will result in a general acceleration and shortening of the phenological stages compared to the present period. Accordingly, the reduction in time for biomass accumulation negatively affected the final yield. Few exceptions were found in the northern and central regions of the study area (southern France and western Balkans) for which changes in climatic conditions were not limiting and the crop benefited from the enhanced atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. (JEL Classifications: Q100, Q540)

Keywords

Climate changecrop modelgrapevineMediterranean basin
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Wine Economics , Volume 11 , Issue 1 , May 2016 , pp. 88 - 104
Copyright
Copyright © American Association of Wine Economists 2014 

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Footnotes

*

This work was supported by the CIRCE EU FP6 Integrated Project, under Contract GOCE-036961. The authors thank Dr. Anne Whittaker for her proofreading as well as the anonymous reviewer for his/her comments and suggestions on an earlier version of the manuscript.

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