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The Economic Impact of the Nigerian Civil War: a Comment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 November 2008

F. S. O'Brien
F. S. O'Brien
Affiliation:
Institute of Administration, University of Ife, Ibadan
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Extract

In a recent issue of this Journal, x, 2, July 1972, pp. 223–45, Dr E. Wayne Nafziger assessed ‘The Economic Impact of the Nigerian Civil War’. The article is, in general, an excellent summary and analysis of the available statistical information on the Nigerian economy for the war period, June 1967 to January 1970, as well as the years leading up to and immediately following the hostilities. However, the author has made an error in his interpretation of the Nigerian gross domestic product series which has led him to seriously understate the decline in aggregate economic activity associated with the war.

Type
Africana
Information
The Journal of Modern African Studies , Volume 11 , Issue 3 , September 1973 , pp. 460 - 463
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1973

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References

Page 460 note 1 The Nigerian fiscal year beginning s April 1967 and ending on 31 March 1968 is designated ‘fiscal year 1967–8’. Nafziger uses the phrase ‘fiscal year 1967', but I find this confusing and prefer the official designation. He has, in fact, been tripped up by his own terminology, because he has reported the figure of £NI,605·0 million as the G.D.P. (in current prices) for the fiscal year 1967, when this is actually for 1966–7 which should be his fiscal year 1966.

Page 460 note 2 The 1963 Nigerian census gave the Eastern Region 12·4 million, or 22 per cent of the total population of 55·7 million. These figures may have been inflated by as much as 25 per cent, but there is no reason to assume that the degree of over-enumeration was greater in this Region than elsewhere. In addition, there was a return migration of Ibos from other parts of the Federation during 1966 and 1967 which swelled the Region's population. For an analysis of these results, see Ekanem, I. I., The 1963 Nigerian Census, A Critical Appraisal (Benin, 1972).Google Scholar

Page 461 note 1 The Biafran Economic Planning Commission estimated that the Eastern Region's share of Nigerian G.D.P. was 32 per cent during the pre-war years 1962–3 to 1965–6, in contrast to the Federal Office of Statistics estimate of only 20–25 per cent. See Aboyade, O. and Ayida, A., ‘The War Economy in Perspective’, in The Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies (Ibadan), XIII, 1, 03 1971, pp. 16–18.Google Scholar

Page 461 note 2 See Nafziger, loc. cit. p. 227, fn. 2.

Page 461 note 3 Federal Ministry of Information, Second National Development Plan, 1970–74 (Lagos, 1970), pp. 43–4.Google Scholar

Page 462 note 1 Federal Ministry of Information, Second National Development Plan, 1970–74, pp. 50 and 52.

Page 462 note 2 Federal Ministry of Information, Economic and Statistical Review, 1970, pp. 1, and 3.Google Scholar

Page 462 note 3 Federal Office of Statistics, Digest of Statistics, XXI, 101 1972, p. 109.Google Scholar

Page 462 note 4 Central Planning Office, Federal Ministry of Economic Development and Reconstruction, Second National Development Plan, First Progress Report, p. 10.

Page 462 note 5 Central Planning Office, Federal Ministry of Economic Development and Reconstruction, Economic and Statistical Review, 1971, p. 4.Google Scholar