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Can Castro Survive?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2018

Donald E. Schulz
Donald E. Schulz*
Affiliation:
Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College
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Extract

There is a moment in “I, Claudius” where Claudius, the king, looks back at all that had happened during his lifetime and before and decides that it is all rotten and has to be destroyed. And he makes a statement. He says: “Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out.”

In a very real sense, Claudius’ curse sums up much of what has happened in Cuba during the last several years. All of the weaknesses and pathologies of the Castro regime, many of which had been hidden beneath its monolithic façade, have come to the surface. The revolution has soured. The situation has grown so bad that most political observers today assume that the regime is in its “final hour.” Cuba is “collapsing,” and the only real questions are when and how Fidel will go and what will replace him.

While Castro must leave sooner or later, reports of his impending demise have been much exaggerated. A golpe de estado is possible, but not probable.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs , Volume 35 , Issue 1 , Spring 1993 , pp. 89 - 118
Copyright
Copyright © University of Miami 1993

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