Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rcrh6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-29T10:22:17.406Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Endogenous Growth, Trend Output, and the Industrial Revolution: Reply to Crafts and Mills

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 March 2009

David Greasley  and
Les Oxley
David Greasley
Affiliation:
Reader in Economic History, Department of Economic History, 50 George Square, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9JY, Scotland.
Les Oxley
Affiliation:
Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Waikato, New Zealand.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

The origins of this exchange stem from an important paper by N. F. R. Crafts, Steven Leybourne, and Terence Mills, which argues that underlying trends in British industrial output for the period 1700 to 1913 are stochastic rather than linearly deterministic. Using parsimonious methods, we propose an alternative view that the output series have alternating stochastic properties. Specifically we distinguish the period 1780 to 1851 as an Industrial Revolution epoch during which shocks had long-term effects. Out model simplifies to help understand the complexities of the Industrial Revolution, and we agree with Clive Granger and Zhuanxin Ding, that “While it is correct to search over a specific set of parsimonious models … the model so achieved is, at best, an approximation to the truth”.

Type
Articles
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 57 , Issue 4 , December 1997 , pp. 957 - 960
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 1997

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Crafts, N. F. R. “Exogenous or Endogenous Growth? The Industrial Revolution Reconsidered.” this JOURNAL 55, no. 4 (1995): 745–772.Google Scholar
Crafts, N. F. R., Leybourne, Steven J., and Mills, Terence C.. “Trends and Cycles in British Industrial Production 1700–1913.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 152, no. 1 (1989): 43–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crafts, N. F. R., and Mills, Terence C.. “Engdogenous Innovation, Trend Growth and the British Industrial Revolution.” this JOURNAL 57, no. 4 (1997): 000-00.Google Scholar
Granger, Clive W. J. “Long Memory Relationships and the Aggregation of Dynamic Models.” Journal of Econometrics 14 no.2 (1980): 227–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granger, C. W. J., and Morris, M. J.. “Time Series Modelling and Interpretation.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society ser. A 139 no. 2 (1976): 246–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granger, C. W. J., and Ding, Zhuanxin. “Varieties of Long Memory Models.” Journal of Econometrics 73 no. 1 (1996): 61–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granger, C. W. J., and Swanson, Norman R., “An Introduction to Stochastic Unit Root Processes.” Journal of Econometrics 73 no.1 (1997): 35–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greasley, David, and Oxley, Les. “Rehabilitation Sustained: The Industrial Revolution as a Macroeconomic Epoch.” Economic History Review 47, no. 4 (1994): 760–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greasley, David, and Oxley, Les. “Technological Epochs and British Industrial Production, 1700–1992.” Scottish Journal of Political Economy 43, no.3 (1996): 258–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harvey, Andrew C., and Jaeger, A.. “Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 8 no. 3 (1993): 231–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Korosi, Gabor, Lovrics, Laszlo, and Matayas, Laszlo. “Aggregation and the Long Run Behaviour of Time Series.” Monash Econometrics Department Working Paper no. 12 (1993).Google Scholar
Lee, Dongin, and Schmidt, Peter. “On the Power of the KPSS Test of Stationarity Against a Fractionally Integrated Alternative.” Economics Letters 53 no. 3 (1996): 285–302.Google Scholar
Leybourne, S. J., Newbold, P., and Vouglas, D.. “Unit Roots and Smooth Transitions.” Journal of Time Series Analysis 18 (1997): forthcoming.Google Scholar
Mills, T. C., and Crafts, N. F. R.. “Trend Growth in British Industhal Output 1700–1913: A Reappraisal.” Explorations in Economic History 33, no.3 (1996): 277–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rossana, Robert J., and Seater, John J.. “Aggregation, Unit Roots, and the Time Series Structure of Manufacturing Real Wages.” International Economic Review 33 no. 2 (1992): 159–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Watson, Mark W. “Univariate Detrending Methods with Staochastic Trends.” Journal of Monetary Economics 18 no. 1 (1986): 49–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar