Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-07T18:39:27.382Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

War Games: North Korea'S Reaction to US and South Korean Military Exercises

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 January 2016

Vito D'Orazio
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Since 1976, the militaries of the United States and South Korea have been holding routine joint military exercises (JMEs) for the purposes of military training and deterrence against North Korea. These exercises are frequently cited as a cause of tension on the peninsula, causing North Korea to escalate its conflictual rhetoric and behavior. I empirically assess this claim using new data on US-ROK JMEs and machine-coded event data collected by the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System. The findings show that North Korea does not systematically escalate its conflictual rhetoric or behavior during or near the occurrence of JMEs. The results hold for both low- and high-intensity exercises and for rhetoric that has the United States and South Korea as its target.

Keywords

joint military exerciseconflictdeterrenceescalationevent dataNorth Korea
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of East Asian Studies , Volume 12 , Issue 2 , May 2012 , pp. 275 - 294
Copyright
Copyright © East Asia Institute 

References

France-Presse, Agence. 2002. “US and South Korea Kick Off Biggest Military Drills.” March 21.Google Scholar
Alt, James, King, Gary, and Signorino, Curt S.. 2001. “Aggregating Among Binary, Count and Duration Models: Estimating the Same Quantities from Different Levels of Data.” Political Analysis 9, 1: 21–44.Google Scholar
BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation). 2011. “White Paper of the National Reunification Institute—We Condemn the United States and the Puppet Warmongers' War Exercise Manoeuvre of Northward Aggression.” BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific , March 12.Google Scholar
Blackwill, Robert D., and Legro, Jeffrey W.. 1989. “Constraining Ground Force Exercises of NATO and the Warsaw Pact.” International Security 14, 3: 68–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cameron, Colin A., and Trivedi, Pravin K.. 1998. Regression Analysis of Count Data. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Chu, John S. 2006. “Military Exercises in Korea: A Provocation or a Deterrent to War?” Newport, RI: Naval War College.Google Scholar
Duvall, Robert D., and Thompson, William R.. 1980. “Reconsidering the Aggregate Relationship Between Size, Economic Development, and Some Types of Foreign Policy Behavior.” American Journal of Political Science 24, 3: 511–525.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farrell, John F. 2009. “Team Spirit: A Case Study on the Value of Military Exercises as a Show of Force in the Aftermath of Combat Operations.” Air and Space Power Journal 23, 3: 95–106.Google Scholar
Garamone, Jim. 2010. “U.S.-Korean Defense Leaders Announce Exercise Invincible Spirit.” American Forces Press Service, July 20. Available at www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=60074 (accessed January 27, 2012).Google Scholar
Gerner, Deborah J., Schrodt, Philip A., Francisco, Ronald A., and Weddle, Judith L.. 1994. “The Machine Coding of Events from Regional and International Sources.” International Studies Quarterly 38: 91–119.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Joshua S. 1992. “A Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Events Data.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36, 2: 369–385.Google Scholar
Gurtov, Mel. 1996. “South Korea's Foreign Policy and Future Security.” Pacific Affairs 69, 1: 8–31.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul. 1988. “Extended Deterrence and the Outbreak of War.” American Political Science Review 82, 2: 423–443.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul, and Russett, Bruce. 1984. “What Makes Deterrence Work: Cases from 1900–1980.” World Politics 36, 4: 496–526.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kim, Kwang-Tae. 2008. “SKorea, US Begin Annual Military Maneuvers Amid NKorean Protests.” Associated Press, March 3.Google Scholar
Morgan, Patrick M. 1983. Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis. 2nd ed. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
North-South Joint Declaration. 2000. Signed June 15. Available at www.usip.org/files/file/resources/collections/peace_agreements/n_skore06152000.pdf (accessed January 27, 2012).Google Scholar
Oberdorfer, Don. 2001. The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History. 2nd ed. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
O'Brien, Sean. 2010. “Crisis Early Warning and Decision Support: Contemporary Approaches and Thoughts on Future Research.” International Studies Review 12, 1: 87–104.Google Scholar
Pevehouse, Jon C., and Goldstein, Joshua S.. 1999. “Serbian Compliance or Defiance in Kosovo? Statistical Analysis and Real-Time Predictions.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 43, 4: 538–546.Google Scholar
Rabiroff, Jon. 2010. “Experts Assess Merit, Risks of U.S.–South Korea Exercise.” Stars and Stripes , July 23.Google Scholar
Sang-hun, Choe. 2008a. “North Korea Faults South in Death of Tourist and Rejects Talks Offer.” New York Times–Asia Pacific , July 13. Available at www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/world/asia/13korea.html (accessed January 27, 2012).Google Scholar
Sang-hun, Choe. 2008b. “South Korea Plays Down Missile Test by the North.” New York Times–Asia Pacific , March 29. Available at www.nytimes.com/2008/03/29/world/asia/29korea.html (accessed January 27, 2012).Google Scholar
Schrodt, Philip A. 2009. TABARI: Textual Analysis by Augmented Replacement Instructions. Available at http://web.ku.edu/~keds/tabari.dir/tabari.manual.0.7.3b3.pdf (accessed January 27, 2012).Google Scholar
Schrodt, Philip A., and Gerner, Deborah J.. 1994. “Validity Assessment of a Machine-Coded Event Data Set for the Middle East, 1982–1992.” American Journal of Political Science 38: 825–854.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schrodt, Philip A., and Gerner, Deborah J.. 2000. “Cluster-Based Early Warning Indicators for Political Change in the Contemporary Levant.” American Political Science Review 94, 4: 803–817.Google Scholar
Schrodt, Philip A., and Yilmaz, Omur. 2007. “Conflict and Mediation Event Observations (CAMEO) Codebook.” Available at http://web.ku.edu/~keds/cameo.dir/CAMEO.CDB.09b5.pdf (accessed January 27, 2012).Google Scholar
Sharp, Walter L. 2011. Statement Before the Senate Armed Services Committee, April 12. Available at http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2011/04%20April/Sharp%2004-12-11.pdf (accessed February 10, 2012).Google Scholar
Shellman, Stephen. 2004. “Time Series Intervals and Statistical Inference: The Effects of Temporal Aggregation on Event Data Analysis.” Security Studies 12, 1: 97–104.Google Scholar
Shellman, Stephen. 2006. “Process Matters: Conflict and Cooperation in Sequential Government-Dissident Interactions.” Security Studies 15, 4: 563–599.Google Scholar
Yoon, Jong-Han. 2011. “The Effect of US Foreign Policy on the Relationship Between South and North Korea: Time Series Analysis of the Post–Cold War Era.” Journal of East Asian Studies 11, 2: 255–287.Google Scholar