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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 31 July 2008
Matrices are derived for converting the proportions of couples wanting various completed family sizes to proportions attaining given sizes of families at a given time, based on a simulation model in which couples commence the regular use of contraception as soon as the decision is made to have not more than one further child. The matrices are adapted to include a proportion of ‘prospective aborters’ who are prepared to have recourse to abortion if contraception fails. A measure of consistency between the family size preferences estimated for different durations of marriage is introduced. This measure, together with the conversion matrices, is used to estimate the distribution of aborters and of family size preferences among a cohort of women married in England and Wales in 1920–24 at ages 20–24.