(1.1) In this paper, acquaintance will be assumed with the basic mechanics of phage/bacterium, antibody/virus interactions; for background reading see, for example, Adams (1959), Bouanchaud (1970), Durham and King (1969) and Fraser (1967).

A general branching process begins with an initial object born at time 0. The initial object lives a random length of time and, during its life-time, has offspring which reproduce and die as independent probabilistic copies of the parent. Number and times of births to a parent are random and, once an object is born, its behavior is assumed to be independent of all other objects, independent of total population size and independent of absolute time. The life span of a parent and the number and times its offspring arrive may be interdependent. Multiple births are allowed. The process continues as long as there are objects alive.

We consider branching processes for which the first three moments of the distribution of offspring exist. Let f(t) andz be, respectively, the generating function of the distribution of offspring and the smallest positive root of the equation f(t) = t. Then if M = f'(z) and fn(t) is equal to the generating function of the distribution of nth generation descendants of a single individual, it is known that, quite generally, (z – fn(0)) / Mn tends toward a constant as n increases. A method is derived for obtaining upper and lower bounds for this constant, which gives an exact solution when there is a geometric distribution of offspring and good bounds when there are Poisson or negative binomial offspring distributions. With some further calculations, one can also obtain finite upper and lower bounds for the mean time to extinction of a line descended from an individual, given there is extinction. These bound apply even ifzis less than 1. Numerical values are given for the Poisson and negative binomial cases.

Let w(t), 0 ≦ t ≦ ∞, be a Brownian motion process, i.e., a zero-mean separable normal process with Pr{w(0) = 0} = 1, E{w(t1)w(t2)}= min (t1, t2), and let a, b denote the boundaries defined by y = a(t), y = b(t), where b(0) < 0 < a(0) and b(t) < a(t), 0 ≦ t ≦ T ≦ ∞. A basic problem in many fields such as diffusion theory, gambler's ruin, collective risk, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics, cumulative-sum methods, sequential analysis and optional stopping is that of calculating the probability that a sample path of w(t) crosses a or b before t = T. This paper shows how this probability may be computed for sufficiently smooth boundaries by numerical solution of integral equations for the first-passage distribution functions. The technique used is to approximate the integral equations by linear recursions whose coefficients are estimated by linearising the boundaries within subintervals. The results are extended to cover the tied-down process subject to the condition w(1) = 0. Some related results for the Poisson process and the sample distribution function are given. The procedures suggested are exemplified numerically, first by computing the probability that the tied-down Brownian motion process crosses a particular curved boundary for which the true probability is known, and secondly by computing the finite-sample and asymptotic powers of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test against a shift in mean of the exponential distribution.

In a standard age-dependent branching process, let Rn(t) denote the proportion of the population belonging to the nth generation at time t. It is shown that in the supercritical case the distribution {Rn(t); n = 0, 1, …} has asymptotically, for large t, a (non-random) normal form, and that the mean ΣnRn(t) is asymptotically linear in t. Further, it is found that, for large n, Rn(t) has the shape of a normal density function (of t).

Two other random functions are also considered: (a) the proportion of the nth generation which is alive at time t, and (b) the proportion of the nth generation which has been born by time t. These functions are also found to have asymptotically a normal form, but with parameters different from those relevant for {Rn(t)}.

For the critical and subcritical processes, analogous results hold with the random variables replaced by their expectations.

The concepts of distribution operator, stochastic independence, convergence in distribution and normal distribution are formulated for pairs of canonically conjugate quantum-mechanical momentum and position operators. It is shown that if the sequence (pn, qn), n = 1, 2, ··· is stochastically independent and identically distributed with finite covariance and zero mean then the sequence of pairs of canonical observables converges in distribution to a normal limit distribution.

Consider the classical Galton-Watson process described by Harris ((1963), Chapter 1). Recently this model has been generalized in Smith (1968), Smith and Wilkinson (1969), and Wilkinson (1967). They removed the restrictive assumption that the particles always divide in accordance with the same p.g.f. Instead, they assumed that at each unit of time, Nature be allowed to choose a p.g.f. from a class of p.g.f.'s, independently of the population, past and present, and the previously selected p.g.f.'s, which would then be assigned to the present population. Each particle of the present population would then split, independently of the others, in accordance with the selected p.g.f. This process, called a branching process in a random environment (BPRE), is clearly more applicable than the Galton-Watson process. Moreover, Smith and Wilkinson have found necessary and sufficient conditions for almost certain extinction of the BPRE which are almost as easy to verify as those for the Galton-Watson process.

A general class of spatial-temporal Markov processes is defined leading to the standard spatial equilibrium distribution for nearest-neighbour models on a multi-dimensional lattice. Physical properties are obtainable from the marginal spatial spectral function. However, only the simplest one-dimensional case corresponds to a linear model with a readily derived spectrum. Non-linear models corresponding to two- and three-dimensional lattices are presented in their simplest terms, and a preliminary discussion of approximate solutions is included.

Suppose that a new hospital is to be planned or an existing one reorganized according to the modern Progressive Patient Care System (Hartley et al. (1968)). In this system, there are three types of wards, viz.

Consider a branching process in which each individual reproduces independently of all others and has probability aj (j = 0, 1, ···) of giving rise to j progeny in the following generation, and in which there is an independent immigration component where, with probability bj (j = 0, 1, ···) j objects enter the population at each generation. Then letting Xn (n = 0, 1, ···) be the population size of the nth generation, it is known (Heathcote (1965), (1966)) that {Xn} defines a Markov chain on the non-negative integers and it is called a branching process with immigration (b.p.i.). We shall call the process sub-critical or super-critical according as the mean number of offspring of an individual, , satisfies α < 1 or α > 1, respectively. Unless stated specifically to the contrary, we assume that the following condition holds.

The stochastic model consists of a two-dimensional random walk with unit steps, each step being a Bernoulli trial. Two sets of possible conditions arising from astronomical theory give rise to two different barriers in the plane of the walk which cause a return to the origin. Another barrier indicates the formation of a planet and also causes a return to the origin. Consideration of the composition of the planets formed at this barrier allows their orbital distances and direction of rotation to be calculated. The predictions of one of the two models were found to be in close agreement with the observed planetary distances and masses in the solar system.

In this note we consider multi-type branching processes where certain terminal types of particles, once created, are subject neither to death nor to further reproduction.

A number of items are to be distributed among n individuals, arranged in a line and labelled by the integers 1, 2, ···, n, in such a way that the distance between any two members presented should be at least d, a given number, but otherwise any subset of the population should have the same probability of each of its members being presented. The number of items thus distributed is a random variable X(d, n) and it turns out that X(d, n) is asymptotically a fixed percentage of the population size n. This fact makes it possible to apply the model in a number of situations. For example, if in a foreign aid program a number of tools are offered and to be distributed in a fair way but, for lack of sufficient quantity, one tool is expected to be used by a number of neighbours, the model is applicable if the amount of aid is not fixed in advance but may vary within certain limits. A similar situation arises in cases of disaster (floods, earthquakes, etc.) when the victims are sent gifts, again in an insufficient quantity, hence for the sake of justice, a family of a smaller size is supposed to receive only one gift. In many other similar cases, the model can be used.

The model considered in this paper describes a queueing system in which the station is dismantled at the end of a busy period and re-established on arrival of a new customer, in such a way that the closing-down process consists of N1 phases of random duration and that a customer 𝒞n who arrives while the station is being closed down must wait a random time idn(i = 1, ···, N1) if the ith phase is going on at the arrival instant. (For each fixed index i, the random variables idn are identically distributed.) A customer 𝒞n arriving when the closing-down of the station is already accomplished has to wait a random time (N1 + 1)dn corresponding to the set up time of the station. Besides, a customer 𝒞n who arrives when the station is busy has to wait an additional random time 0dn. We thus have (N1 + 2) types of “delay” (additional waiting time). Similarly, we consider (N2 + 2) types of service time and (N3 + 2) probabilities of joining the queue. This may be formulated as a model with (N + 2) types of triplets (delay, service time, probability of joining the queue). We consider the general case where the random variables defining the model all have an arbitrary distribution.

The process {wn}, where wn denotes the waiting time of customer 𝒞n if he joins the queue at all, is not necessarily Markovian, so that we first study (by algebraic considerations) the transient behaviour of a Markovian process {vn} related to {wn}, and then derive the distribution of the variables wn.

This paper was initially motivated by a problem raised earlier by the author (Seneta (1969), Section 5.3) viz. that of the existence and uniqueness of an invariant measure for a supercritical Galton-Watson process with immigration; and, indeed, in the sequel we show that such a measure always exists, but is not in general unique.

Fixed-cycle traffic light queues have been investigated by probabilistic methods by many authors. Beckmann, McGuire and Winsten (1956) considered a discrete time queueing model with binomial arrivals and regular departure headways and derived a relation between the stationary mean delay per vehicle and the stationary mean queue-length at the beginning of a red period of the traffic light. Haight (1959) and Buckley and Wheeler (1964) considered models with Poisson arrivals and regular departure headways and investigated certain properties of the queue-length. Newell (1960) dealt with the model proposed by the first authors and obtained the probability generating function of the stationary queue-length distribution. Darroch (1964) discussed a more general discrete time model with stationary, independent arrivals and regular departure headways and derived a necessary and sufficient condition for the stationary queue-length distribution to exist and obtained its probability generating function. The above two authors, Little (1961), Miller (1963), Newell (1965), McNeil (1968), Siskind (1970) and others gave approximate expressions for the stationary mean delay per vehicle for fixed-cycle traffic light queues of various types. All of the authors mentioned above dealt with the queue-length.

We consider a single server queueing system M/G/1 in which customers arrive in a Poisson process with mean λt, and the service time has distribution dB(t), 0 < t < ∞. Let W(t) be the virtual waiting time process, i.e., the time that a potential customer arriving at the queueing system at time t would have to wait before beginning his service. We also let the random variable denote the first busy period initiated by a waiting time u at time t = 0.

In this paper mathematical methods are given for finding the distributions of the virtual waiting time and the occupation time for single-server queues in which the interarrival times and the service times are discrete random variables taking on positive or non-negative integral values. First we shall consider deterministic queues in which the interarrival times and the service times are numerical (non-random) quantities and deduce a fundamental relation for such queues. Then we shall consider random queues with recurrent input and general service times and study the time dependent behavior of such queues.

It is possible to interpret the classical central limit theorem for sums of independent random variables as a convergence rate result for the law of large numbers. For example, if Xi, i = 1, 2, 3, ··· are independent and identically distributed random variables with EXi = μ, var Xi = σ2 < ∞ and then the central limit theorem can be written in the form This provides information on the rate of convergence in the strong law as . (“a.s.” denotes almost sure convergence.) It is our object in this paper to discuss analogues for the super-critical Galton-Watson process.

Equilibrium behavior of a stochastic system with two types of input of different statistical nature and with linear continuous output is investigated. The results have applications in queueing theory, storage theory and insurance-risk theory.