Climate change is now unequivocal, particularly in terms of increasing temperature, increasing CO2 concentration, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level, while the increase in the frequency of drought is very probable but not as certain.

However, climate changes are not new and some of them have had dramatic impacts, such as the appearance of leaves about 400 million years ago as a response to a drastic decrease in CO2 concentration, the birth of agriculture due to the end of the last ice age about 11 000 years ago and the collapse of civilizations due to the late Holocene droughts between 5000 and 1000 years ago.

The climate changes that are occurring at present will have – and are already having – an adverse effect on food production and food quality with the poorest farmers and the poorest countries most at risk. The adverse effect is a consequence of the expected or probable increased frequency of some abiotic stresses such as heat and drought, and of the increased frequency of biotic stresses (pests and diseases). In addition, climate change is also expected to cause losses of biodiversity, mainly in more marginal environments.

Plant breeding has addressed both abiotic and biotic stresses. Strategies of adaptation to climate changes may include a more accurate matching of phenology to moisture availability using photoperiod-temperature response, increased access to a suite of varieties with different duration to escape or avoid predictable occurrences of stress at critical periods in crop life cycles, improved water use efficiency and a re-emphasis on population breeding in the form of evolutionary participatory plant breeding to provide a buffer against increasing unpredictability. ICARDA, in collaboration with scientists in Iran, Algeria, Jordan, Eritrea and Morocco, has recently started evolutionary participatory programmes for barley and durum wheat. These measures will go hand in hand with breeding for resistance to biotic stresses and with an efficient system of variety delivery to farmers.

The reality of climate change has rarely been questioned in Europe in the last few years as a consensus has emerged amongst a wide range of national to local environmental and resource policy makers and stakeholders that climate change has been sufficiently demonstrated in a number of sectors. A number of site-based studies evaluating change of attainable yields of various crops have been conducted in Central Europe, but studies that evaluate agroclimatic potential across more countries in the region are rare. Therefore, the main aim of the present study was to develop and test a technique for a comprehensive evaluation of agroclimatic conditions under expected climate conditions over all of Central Europe with a high spatial resolution in order to answer the question posed in the title of the paper ‘Is rainfed crop production in central Europe at risk?’ The domain covers the entire area of Central Europe between latitudes 45° and 51·5°N and longitudes 8° and 27°E, including at least part of the territories of Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland and Ukraine. The study is based on a range of agroclimatic indices that are designed to capture complex relations existing between climate and crops (their development and/or production) as well as the agrosystems as a whole. They provide information about various aspects of crop production, but they are not meant to compete with other and sometimes more suitable tools (e.g. process-based crop models, soil workability models, etc.). Instead, the selected indices can be seen as complementary to crop modelling tools that describe aspects not fully addressed or covered by crop models for an overall assessment of crop production conditions. The set of indices includes: sum of effective global radiation, number of effective growing days, Huglin index, water balance during the period from April to June (AMJ) and during the summer (JJA), proportion of days suitable for harvesting of field crops in June and July, and proportion of days suitable for sowing in early spring as well as during the autumn. The study concluded that while the uncertainties about future climate change impacts remain, the increase in the mean production potential of the domain as a whole (expressed in terms of effective global radiation and number of effective growing days) is likely a result of climate change, while inter-annual yield variability and risk may also increase. However, this is not true for the Pannonian (the lowlands between the Alps, the Carpathian Mountains and the Dinaric Alps) and Mediterranean parts of the domain, where increases in the water deficit will further limit rainfed agriculture but will probably lead to an increase in irrigation agriculture if local water resources are dwindling. Increases in the severity of the 20-year drought deficit and more substantial water deficits during the critical part of the growing season are very likely over the central and western part of the domain. Similarly, the inter-annual variability of water balance is likely to increase over the domain. There is also a chance of conditions for sowing during spring deteriorating due to unfavourable weather, which might increase the preference given to winter crops. This is already likely due to their ability to withstand spring drought stress events. Harvesting conditions in June (when harvest of some crops might take place in the future) are not improving beyond the present level, making the planning of the effective harvest time more challenging. Based on the evidence provided by the present study, it could be concluded that rainfed agriculture might indeed face more climate-related risks, but the overall conditions will probably allow for acceptable yield levels in most seasons. However, the evidence also suggests that the risk of extremely unfavourable years, resulting in poor economic returns, is likely to increase.

Climate represents one of the main inputs necessary for plants to complete their vegetative–productive cycle, having a direct effect on the onset and duration of phenological stages and development of crops. Equally important are its indirect effects, affecting field operations such as the application of fertilizer, pruning and crop protection, finally determining the yield.

In the present study, phenological stages of the Sangiovese grapevine for the production of Nobile di Montepulciano wine were analysed and related to historical series of meteorological information (since 1970 in Tuscany, Italy). Weather conditions were described through large-scale meteorological information; in particular geopotential height at the 500 hPa level (500 hPa GPH) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index were considered. All data were provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (NOAA-CIRES) Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA, available from the NOAA-CIRES website (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/) and processed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis Project. Conventional meteorological data, such as air temperature and cumulated rainfall, from ground weather stations were also used.

The effects of meteorological parameters on crop phenology (bud-break, flowering and harvest time) were investigated by means of regression analysis, while teleconnections between phenological data and large-scale meteo-climatological data were analysed through correlation maps created using the interactive plotting and analysis link from the NOAA-CIRES website (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov). All correlations were calculated on a monthly to a multi-monthly basis, and also in relation to the different physiological stages of the crop, from 1970 to 2006.

The climate change and variability impact on the crop was investigated by trend analysis of meteorological information and its effect on the onset of grapevine phenological stages.

The results demonstrated that large-scale meteorological information has a significant effect on the onset of the phenological stages of grapevine. In particular, winter NAO was negatively correlated with bud-break and flowering dates, while GPH of February–March, March–May and May–September were negatively correlated with bud-break, flowering and harvest dates, respectively. The trend analysis demonstrated that the change and variability of climate, due to global warming, directly affects the development of grapevine leading to an anticipation of all considered phenophases.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and optimizing energy consumption are important for mitigating climate change and improving resource use efficiency. Strawberry (Fragaria xananassa Duch) crops are a key component of the UK soft fruit sector and potentially resource-intensive crops. This is the first study to undertake a detailed environmental impact assessment of all methods of UK strawberry production. A total of 14 systems with six additional sub-systems grown for between 1 and 3 years were identified. They were defined by the growing of short-day (Junebearer) or everbearer varieties, organic production, covering with polytunnels or grown in the open, soil-grown (with or without fumigation) or container-grown (with peat or coir substrate) and summer or spring planted. Pre-harvest, the global warming potential varied between 1·5 and 10·3 t CO2 equiv/ha/crop or 0·13 and 1·14 t CO2 equiv/t of class 1 fruit. Key factors included the use of tunnels, mulch and irrigation, sterilization of soil with fumigants and the use of peat substrate. Seasonal crops without covers grown where rotation of sufficient length reduced Verticillium (system 4) were the most efficient. System 4a (that did not use mulch) emitted 0·13 t CO2 equiv/t of class 1 fruit. A second or third cropping year in soil-grown systems prolonged the effect of mulch and soil fumigants. Greenhouse gases from system 4 (with mulch) averaged 0·30 t CO2 equiv/t of class 1 fruit after 3 years of cropping compared to 0·63 and 0·36 t CO2 equiv/t after 1 and 2 years, respectively.

Various adaptation strategies are available that will minimize or negate predicted climate change-related increases in yield loss from phoma stem canker in UK winter oilseed rape (OSR) production. A number of forecasts for OSR yield, national production and subsequent economic values are presented, providing estimates of impacts on both yield and value for different levels of adaptation. Under future climate change scenarios, there will be increasing pressure to maintain yields at current levels. Losses can be minimized in the short term (up to the 2020s) with a ‘low’-adaptation strategy, which essentially requires some farmer-led changes towards best management practices. However, the predicted impacts of climate change can be negated and, in most cases, improved upon, with ‘high’-adaptation strategies. This requires increased funding from both the public and private sectors and more directed efforts at adaptation from the producer. Most literature on adaptation to climate change has had a conceptual focus with little quantification of impacts. It is argued that quantifying the impacts of adaptation is essential to provide clearer information to guide policy and industry approaches to future climate change risk.

Estimates of inbreeding effects in a landrace are necessary in order to acquire information on the presence of different types of gene action for important traits. Twelve lines with different levels of inbreeding coefficients (F=0, 0·25, 0·50 or 0·75) were developed from three phenotypically selected families of a winter squash landrace (Cucurbita moschata Duchesne) between 2000 and 2002 in the area of Thermi-Thessaloniki, Greece. During 2003, a field experiment was established at this location to evaluate the lines. The agronomical characters measured were: the number and weight of total commercial fruits, days to first female blossom, seed weight, size of pollen grains and water-stress tolerance. Comparisons were also made of morphological characters, the dry matter, the total soluble solids and the pH of fruits. Lines with inbreeding coefficient F=0·50 were found to have the highest values for most of the measured characteristics. Significant family×inbreeding interactions were found, revealing different trends for the linear, quadratic and cubic components of each family with inbreeding coefficients. Three F=0·50 lines selected from within each representative family were evaluated along with four winter squash landraces from the C. moschata collection of the Greek Gene Bank, during 2004 in the area of Thermi. These F=0·50 lines showed a superior performance of three components contributing to yield, indicating that one generation of selfing improved the agronomic performance maintaining concurrently the substantial characteristics of the landrace.

A simulated grazing system was set up in Huanxian County, Gansu province, on the Loess Plateau of Northwest China, involving the purchase of 18-month-old wether lambs in June of each year at c. 20 kg body weight (BW) and sale 6 months later at c. 35 kg BW. Three stocking rate (SR) treatments of 2·7, 5·3 and 8·7 wether lambs/ha were evaluated on geographically separated warm season (WS) and cold season (CS) paddocks c. 1 km apart; 3 years' data are reported (2004–2006). The metabolizable energy (ME) yield of the grazing system, calculated from the weight of animals fed and their weight gain, averaged 1·7, 3·3 and 4·7 GJ/ha/year for 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively, in the WS and 0·9, 1·9, and 2·7 GJ/ha/year, respectively, in the CS for SR of 2·7, 5·3 and 8·7 animals/ha. Detailed grazing behaviour records were kept in order to elucidate intake dynamics. In these grazing systems, bite weight was typically c. 0·04 g/bite, lower than for temperate grazing systems at comparable herbage mass. A hypothesis for further study is proposed that this may relate to the distribution of a similar herbage mass over a greater sward height range in steppe vegetation than in temperate grass pasture. Sheep increased their bite rate (bites/min) and the number of steps/min at higher SR to compensate, such that intake/animal was reduced by not more than 10% with a threefold increase in SR. At higher SR, herbage ground cover on grazed plots was still lower than on ungrazed plots, 1 year after a 90-day summer grazing period or a 48-day winter grazing period. The significance of the findings for management of these systems is briefly discussed.

The current study was conducted to determine chemical composition, nutrient content and availability, metabolizable energy (ME) content and nutritive value of sainfoin hay for ruminants. Three ruminally cannulated Holstein cows were used for in situ and in vivo experiments, to determine rumen degradability and digestibility of sainfoin hay. Apparent total tract digestibility of nutrients was determined with feeding of sainfoin hay as the sole diet to achieve 10% more than maintenance energy requirements. Six Zandi ewes were used in the palatability experiment. Means for dry matter (DM), organic matter (OM), crude protein (CP), neutral detergent fibre (NDF), acid detergent fibre (ADF) and condensed tannins (CTs) of sainfoin hay were: 940·4 g/kg and 93·43, 12·13, 47·87, 43·33 and 2·13 g/kg DM, respectively. In situ effective degradability of CP and DM were 0·38 and 0·54 g/g with a ruminal outflow rate of 0·05/h, respectively. OM apparent digestibility was in the range of 0·592–0·689, respectively, for Tilley & Terry and total faecal collection assays. ME content of sainfoin hay, according to different methods (gas production, in vitro and in vivo determined digestible organic matter in dry matter (DOMD)) was in the range 6·87–10·11 MJ/kg DM. Metabolizable protein (MP) content was 483·4 g/kg CP. Sainfoin was more palatable than alfalfa for sheep. It was concluded that sainfoin has a potential use in ruminant rations, especially if environmental conditions are not suitable for alfalfa production.