Calving date affects feed costs, calf weaning weights, marketing dates, labor availability, and, potentially, calf health. Employing recent estimates of calf weaning weights and surveys of producers, feedlot operators, and veterinarians, we model expected profits as a function of calving date. January-calving herds had the highest annualized net returns, a result driven by older weaning dates and heavier weaning weights. However, survey results show March and April were the most common calving months. This may be due to both weather and labor demand concerns. If weaning ages are restricted to 205 days, January calving was the least profitable because of higher feed costs.

Faced with risky yields and returns, risk-averse farmers require a premium to take risks. In this paper, we estimate individual farmers’ degrees of risk aversion to adjust for the risk premium in returns and to replace the farmers’ realized returns with their certainty equivalent returns in the production function. In that way, the effect of the inputs on returns will automatically be risk-adjusted, i.e., we obtain risk-adjusted marginal effects of inputs, which can be used in decision-making support of farmers’ input choices in production. Using farm-level data from organic basmati rice smallholders in India, we illustrate this method using nonparametric production functions. The results show that the input elasticities and returns-to-scale estimates change when the farmers’ degree of risk aversion is taken into consideration.

This study formally links the literature on R&D-driven productivity growth to studies which examine GHG emission benefits from increased farm productivity growth. Using a global agricultural model and estimates from the literature, this study examines the impact of greater US public agricultural R&D spending over 2025−2035. The results show that roughly doubling public R&D investments in US agriculture could provide greater economic gains relative to its costs over the period 2017−2050. The GHG mitigation co-benefits from these investments also can be enhanced by combining R&D policies with strategies aimed at directly reducing farm inputs.

This study investigates the effects of genetic improvement policies on dairy production, with a particular emphasis on Artificial Insemination projects. Furthermore, we evaluate the major barriers and challenges of Artificial Insemination projects including water scarcity. Using the data-driven synthetic control method, we found evidence that the Artificial Insemination projects caused milk production to increase by 59 thousand tons on average from 2008 to 2018. This could be correlated with food security (i.e., synergies), but increased dairy production may also place strain on Senegal’s water resources (i.e. trade-offs). To achieve a more efficient outcome, Senegalese dairy policies should consider the negative externalities of these projects on water resources.

We examined the effect of using input and output quantities as compared with costs and revenues when estimating farm-level efficiency scores and ranking. We used farm-level data from the 2015 Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (ERSS) where production inputs and outputs in quantities as well as monetary units could be distinguished. Average technical efficiency scores of 72.2% and 68.6%, respectively, were found for analysis based on quantities and on costs and revenues. Efficiency ranking differed significantly. Results suggest that type of data compilation introduces bias to the efficiency assessment and that conclusions may be unclear, which complicates policy advice.

The United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service (USDA AMS) began publishing formula base price information in August 2021. Considerable variation in the types of cattle priced via formula has raised questions about the level of base price transparency that can be gleaned from formula base price reports. This study employs 6 years of transactions to estimate hedonic models assessing the capability of existing data to describe variation in formula base prices. Results suggest factors beyond those reported to USDA AMS by packers influence base prices. We offer suggestions for improved data collection to make hedonic modeling of base prices more effective for reporting market information.

Although South Africa accounts for half of the alternative meat market for the African continent, there remains a lack of information about consumer demand for plant-based and lab-cultured meat and its market potential domestically. This study reports the results of a nationwide survey of 649 South African consumers who completed a choice experiment in which they selected among conventional beef and three alternative burger patties at varying prices. Results indicate that holding prices constant and conditional on choosing a food product, 21% of the market share was estimated for plant-based meat alternatives and 38% for lab-cultured meat.

We investigate the role of optimism bias in bull price expectations using incentivized lab-in-the-field experiments with Alabama and Tennessee cattle producers. We develop bull price prediction tasks and reward accurate predictions. We find that the EPD information provision prevents optimism bias from contaminating price expectations in the whole sample. However, we also document that, unlike buyers, sellers are prone to unrealistic optimistic expectations, and our results reveal that optimism bias can be moderated by the type of expected progeny difference information utilized, breed characteristics, and regional differences in cattle operations. We contribute to the literature by documenting the role of behavioral biases.

As food producers face increasing costs, many greenhouse growers are turning to controlled environment agriculture. The use of light-emitting diode (LED) supplemental lighting systems may increase a producer’s profitability, but it also comes with a unique set of externalities. Using an online survey, we found that showing images of light pollution from supplemental LED lighting sources facilitated respondents to want more regulation with state government being the desired regulator. Several significant factors influenced survey respondents’ posttreatment preference outcomes for different levels of regulation and regulators including demographic characteristics as well as initial attitudes toward LED lighting systems before treatment.

This study examines the impact of the row planting method on maize productivity and risk exposure using panel datasets from Ethiopia. A flexible moment-based production function is fitted to capture the expected yield, yield variance, and exposure to downside risk. A Mundlak–Chamberlain approach is combined with a switching regression treatment effects model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity. The study shows that adopters of the row planting method significantly reduced exposure to downside risk while increasing expected yield. The analysis also identified some household and environmental conditions that affect the gain from the row planting method.

This study employs a hedonic price model on slaughter goat auction data to examine the factors affecting U.S. meat goat prices. Wether-kids and wethers with superior muscularity receive high premiums in the auction markets. We find a non-linear relationship between average price and average weight, with the average price declining with increasing average weight within the reasonable weight range. The results reveal a seasonal effect on U.S. meat goat prices, primarily due to the seasonality of goat supply caused by goat breeding practices. Our results do not show a significant effect of the foreign-born population on meat goat auction prices.

We develop and analyze an unexplored mechanism to reduce biorefinery supply chain costs when the feedstock is a perennial crop: adjusting the age structure, and hence yield, of the perennial feedstock. The non-monotonicity of the age-yield function introduces a non-convexity to the cost minimization problem. We show that, despite this, the problem has a solution and present analytic and numeric comparative statics, finding that larger refineries are most likely to benefit from optimizing age structure. The model is calibrated to the sugarcane industry in Brazil. The cost reductions from optimizing age, compared to the observed regional average age, are less than 1%.

Land expansion by existing smallholder farmers (SHFs), aka stepping-up, is a major pathway to the rise of medium-scale farmers (MSFs) in Africa. In this paper, we investigate if and how armed conflicts constrain the ability of SHFs to transition to MSFs. We find that increased conflict intensity reduces the likelihood that a SHF will expand to a larger scale, especially for farmers who rely mostly on farm incomes, rather than off-farm incomes, for their livelihoods. These findings uphold other evidence that peace and stability influence private investment, including land-based investments, that are associated with economic transformation.

The profitability of U.S. meat producers and the utility of U.S. meat consumers are impacted by the trade of meat. USDA publishes the most prominent publicly available meat trade projections. This study finds USDA projections typically underpredict meat export volumes and overpredict meat import volumes. USDA projections outperform naïve projections for beef and pork exports, but naïve projections at times outperform USDA projections for chicken exports and beef and pork imports, especially at shorter horizons. USDA projections exclude variety cuts, which comprise a sizeable share of beef and pork exports. There remains room for improvement in projecting U.S. meat trade.

The United States has a long history of providing ad hoc disaster assistance to agricultural producers. The latest version – the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) – follows five consecutive years of appropriations for disaster assistance. In response to ongoing appropriations, there is growing interest in establishing a permanent disaster program. However, with that comes concerns over the impact it could have on the existing farm safety net, particularly crop insurance. In this paper, we characterize the likely effects on crop insurance coverage levels of a permanent authorization of ERP. We assume that corn and soybean producers choose a coverage level based on the effects of that choice on the distribution of future ending wealth reflecting crop revenue, insurance indemnities, and ERP payments. We find very modest effects on crop insurance coverage level choices and crop insurance premiums collected.

We estimate the economic cost of nutrient reductions from riparian buffers in two counties in western Maryland. The costs and gains for farmers are estimated for establishing riparian buffers under the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program. For nutrient reductions, we utilize nitrogen and phosphorus mitigation loads from the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model and own estimates from our synoptic studies. We show that costs of reducing nutrients vary based on buffer type, its location, and the nutrient pollutant. We also show that installing riparian buffers alongside existing forests could be a more cost-effective practice for reducing nitrogen than other riparian buffers.

We estimate the benefits of the saturated thickness (water-bearing porous material) of the alluvial aquifer in Arkansas through an application of the hedonic price model to the sale of agricultural land. There is evidence from the first-stage analysis of diminishing returns from increasing saturated thickness. Using a survey of farmer operators’ preferences and socioeconomic characteristics, we recover the underlying demand function for saturated thickness in a second-stage analysis. Shifts in the demand function reveal that produced/social capital can be a substitute or a complement to saturated thickness, and human capital is a substitute for saturated thickness.