The behavior of agricultural commodity markets can arguably result in markedly asymmetric price cycles, that is, downward cycles of substantially different length and breadth than upward cycles. This study assesses whether asymmetric-cycle models can enhance the understanding of the dynamics and provide for a better forecasting of U.S. soybeans and Brazilian coffee prices. The forecasts from asymmetric cycle models are found to be substantially mode precise than those obtained from standard autoregressive models. The asymmetric cycle models also provide useful insights on the markedly different dynamics of the upward vs. the downward cycles exhibited by the prices of these two commodities.

In recent times, few concepts have enjoyed as much exposure or suffered more abuse than Community Resource Development. Social scientists have dissected its components with the skill of the surgeon's hand and too frequently with the clarity and understanding associated with UFO's (unidentified flying objects).

The “novice expert” has contributed greatly to the “popular parade” of information on Community Resource Development. Among his more notable contributions have been complicated frameworks, models, approaches, strategies and processes - - all guaranteed to foster community growth and progress.

Agricultural pesticide use has come under an intensive attack from an environmentally aware society. The Environmental Protection Agency has placed restrictions on use of selected pesticides, including DDT. The use of pesticide is a paradox in itself. Without feasible alternative insecticide strategies, such as biological control, restrictions on the use of pesticides will decrease agricultural output and food costs will increase. However, with pesticide use, social costs in the form of environmental damages may occur. To make an equitable decision as to the future of pesticides, researchers and policy-makers have tried to determine the optimal level of use, optimal timing of application, extent of economic benefits, extent of social costs, and the effects on the economy of pesticide restrictions.

The general economic meanings and mathematical structure of the dual of a primal mathematical programming model have been discussed for many years. However, within the mathematical programming realm, many interesting formulization variations have developed partly in response to variations in particulars of problems.

A number of authors have discussed the economic meaning and mathematical structure of the primal of a linear cost minimizing transportation model. Some authors discussed the economic meaning and mathematical structure of the dual as well as the primal of the transportation model. Several authors discussed cost minimizing transshipment models. Recently, greater interest has been shown in specific economic meanings of the dual of the cost minimizing transshipment model.

Two seemingly unrelated topics are discussed—an outlook for biofuels in the southern United States, along with an overview of the important role that information technology is playing in the fuel ethanol industry. The outlook discussion is limited to issues involving the two principal biofuels, fuel ethanol and biodiesel, and their respective feed stocks, corn and soybean oil. The two topics are linked with a description of how information technology (IT) has enabled the development of the fuel ethanol franchise and a discussion of how IT is changing the very nature of biofuel operations.

An analysis of the characteristics of farm businesses by size of FCS direct lending association suggests that further consolidation of FCS lending should have limited negative impacts on credit availability. Commercial-sized farm businesses with FCS real estate debt appeared similar to those who obtained credit from competing lenders, but smaller associations and those with fewer stockholders per branch appeared to serve larger and more wealthy commercial-sized farms.

Stocker cattle operations are an important part of the nation's cattle industry. Many producers do not realize the profit potential in new technological advances, and some feed their cattle on uneconomic planes of nutrition. Stocker cattle producers can benefit from results of animal science and agronomic research if they are presented in a framework suited to use in decision-making. Analyses prepared by agricultural economists often ignore many of the factors determining gain because of lack of data and complexity of the relationships. Thus, a system for economic analysis that accounts for more factors and improves growth predictions would be highly useful. The purpose of this study is to develop and provide computerized analytical procedures to estimate physical and economic results of alternative stocker production systems.

Production function models for cotton lint yields, seed yields, turnout, and lint quality characteristics are developed for the Texas High Plains. They are used to evaluate the impacts of quality considerations and of climate/weather information on the management decisions and on the profitability and risk of irrigated cotton production systems. It is concluded that both quality considerations and improved climatic/weather information could have substantial effects on expected profitability and risk. These effects mainly occur because of changes in optimal variety selection and irrigation water use levels. Quality considerations in particular result in significantly lower irrigation water use levels regardless of the climate/weather information assumption, which has important scarce-resource use implications for the Texas High Plains.

Although interest in cross-disciplinary research is not new, expressions of the importance of collaboration are increasing. A focus on agricultural sustainability issues, which explicitly recognizes the links among agricultural production activities, the environment, and communities, is an example of this interest. Among agricultural economists, a 1996 Council on Food, Agriculture, and Resource Economics (C-FARE) survey regarding professional priorities indicated that the profession overwhelmingly (92%) believes there is a need for more cross-disciplinary collaboration. This view is common across all sciences (physical and social), and not limited to the agricultural sciences.

It was a humbling and unexpected surprise when I was notified of my selection for a Lifetime Achievement Award from the Southern Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA). My colleagues continually ride me about moving into administration and losing touch with “the real world.“ Given my eight years in a series of administrative positions, they may be partly right. Fortunately, my economics and business training hold me in good stead when addressing the issues that face the Texas AgriLife Extension Service. I want to thank the colleagues who nominated me and the Association for granting me this honor. It is greatly appreciated.

In past decades, agricultural policy was always thought of as policy toward farmers who produce our food and fiber or other rural people who depend on farmers for their livelihood. Accordingly, past policies were translated into programs of research, education, electrification, price supports, and related commodity programs.

After a time, it was realized that many farmers did not benefit from price and income programs in particular. They lacked the resources to enter the commercial market through which price programs operated. It was decided that the problems facing these people called for credit and other special programs to help them graduate into the commercial field.

Virtually every economic situation in agriculture has an unmatched pair of implications that may be called the proximate and the ultimate. Devaluation of the fixed assets of agriculture has a meaning of enormous significance in the here-and-now — the proximate. It bears not so much on impersonal gross measures of productivity and output but on the human element. Loss of farm asset values is a major blow to the hopes and aspirations of hundreds of thousands of farmers, bringing intense emotional distress and even suicides.

A state-level analysis of the Re-enrollment and Extension (REX) program on southern states indicates a positive relationship between percentage of tree acreage and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) re-enrollment for states in which conservation acreage is dominated by trees. However, the relationship depends on crop mix where CRP acreage is dominated by grass. County-level analysis suggests that states will differ in how quickly they opt out of CRP. Of the states examined, Arkansas is the most likely to move land to corn, with Mississippi the least likely. Arkansas and Kentucky will switch to soybean first, followed by Mississippi and Georgia.

The Agricultural Risk Management Simulator (ARMS) is a microcomputer program designed to help users evaluate strategies for managing yield and price risk in crop farming operations. Risk management strategies are defined by choices regarding crop mix, the purchase of multiple peril crop insurance, and the use of forward contracting. Probabilistic budgeting is used to determine the net cash flow probability distribution for each strategy considered. Flexibility with regard to both sources of probabilistic information and the form of yield and price probability distributions is a noteworthy feature of the program.

Risk analysis continues to emphasize price and yield variability as the principal components of the decisionmaker's risk environment. This research demonstrates the relative importance of financial risk for a representative cotton farm in Arizona. For highly leveraged operations, financial risk may account for 70 percent of the total risk faced by the producer. Implications for future risk analysis are discussed in light of these findings.

This note describes an approach for teaching undergraduate students basic properties of cost and production functions with the aid of computer-generated illustrations. Parameters of a third degree polynomial are derived by making use of both the theoretical restrictions and the specific agricultural production process. The function is then used as the basis for the development of a simple computer graphics program which generates illustrations of the corresponding MPP, AC, and MC functions. Such illustrations can be used to make technically accurate visual aids.

The federal government program for wetlands regulation is administered by the United States Army Corps of Engineers pursuant to Section 404 of the Clean Water Act. Proposals for amending and/or reforming the Section 404 program are included in Congressional deliberations regarding Clean Water Act reauthorization. Specific issues of public policy include the definition of “waters of the United States”, criteria for delineation of jurisdictional wetlands, definition of activities exempt from regulation, mitigation and classification of wetlands, and issues of property rights.

Microenterprise programs (MEPs) have become an important research concern and rural development strategy in international development circles. The basic premise of this approach is that microenterprises , that is firms with fewer than 10 employees, can be provided with a series of small loans that allow them to start or expand productive activities and thereby increase incomes and escape poverty. Governments and donor agencies have expanded funding for microfinance programs in low-income countries and more articles appear in the Western media about the success of this new approach in assisting the poor.