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A Comparison of Subjective and Historical Crop Yield Probability Distributions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

James W. Pease
James W. Pease*
Affiliation:
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
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Abstract

Forecast distributions based on historical yields and subjective expectations for 1987 expected crop yields were compared for 90 Western Kentucky grain farms. Different subjective probability elicitation techniques were also compared. In many individual cases, results indicate large differences between subjective and empirical moments. Overall, farmer expectations for 1987 corn yields were below those predicted from their past yields, while soybean expectations were above the historical forecast. Geographical location plays a larger role than crop in comparisons of relative variability of yield. Neither elicitation technique nor manager characteristics have significant effects on the comparisons of the forecasts.

Keywords

subjective probabilityprobability elicitationriskdecision support
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 24 , Issue 2 , December 1992 , pp. 23 - 32
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1992

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