Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7czq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T22:08:54.699Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Systemic Instability and the Emergence of Border Disputes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 December 2020

Scott F Abramson  and
David B. Carter
Get access

Abstract

Although evidence shows that territorial disputes fundamentally shape relations among states, we know surprisingly little about when territorial claims are made. We argue that revisionist states have incentives to make territorial claims when the great powers that manage the system are in crisis. We identify five main sources of systemic instability and develop measures of each of them, demonstrating that the majority of territorial claims in Europe are drawn at times when regional great powers are embroiled in crisis, for example, 1848 or 1870 during the nineteenth century. The claims that emerge at these times are not necessarily among states involved in the crises that generated turmoil (e.g., Prussia and France in 1870). We use a newly developed spatial measure of historical boundary precedents in Europe from 1650 to 1790 to demonstrate that the effect of this known spatial correlate of where claims are drawn matters only when the European system is in crisis. We further demonstrate that this claim-timing pattern is general to the global system of states. In the appendix we corroborate our explanation of our findings with a detailed case study of the territorial claims that led to the contemporary Italian state's formation.

Keywords

Territoryterritorial disputegreat powerhegemonysystemic instabilityregional instability
Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 75 , Issue 1 , Winter 2021 , pp. 103 - 146
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramson, Scott F. 2017. The Economic Origins of the Territorial State. International Organization 71 (1):97–130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramson, Scott F., and Carter, David B.. 2016. The Historical Origins of Territorial Disputes. American Political Science Review 110 (4):675–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, Daron, Johnson, Simon, and Robinson, James A.. 2002. Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (4):1231–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Achen, Christopher H. 2005. Let's Put Garbage-Can Regressions and Garbage-Can Probits Where They Belong. Conflict Management and Peace Science 22 (4):327–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Altman, Dan. 2017. By Fait Accompli, Not Coercion: How States Wrest Territory from Their Adversaries. International Studies Quarterly 61 (4):881–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Altonji, Joseph G., Elder, Todd E., and Taber, Christopher R.. 2005. Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools. Journal of Political Economy 113 (1):151–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bairoch, P., Batou, J., and Pierre, C.. 1988. Population des villes européennes de 800 à 1850: banque de données et analyse sommaire des résultats (la). Librairie Droz.Google Scholar
Beales, Derek Edward Dawson. 1961. England and Italy, 1859–60. T. Nelson.Google Scholar
Bevan, Alan A., and Estrin, Saul. 2004. The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment into European Transition Economies. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4):775–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boulding, Kenneth. 1962. Conflict and Defense: A General Theory. Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Brambor, Thomas, Roberts Clark, William, and Golder, Matt. 2005. Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis 14 (1):63–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braumoeller, Bear F. 2004. Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms. International Organization 58 (4):807–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brooks, Stephen G., and Wohlforth, William C.. 2008. World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, David B. 2010. The Strategy of Territorial Conflict. American Journal of Political Science 54 (4):969–987.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, David B. 2017. History as a Double-Edged Sword: Historical Boundaries and Territorial Claims. Politics, Philosophy and Economics 16 (4):400–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, David B., and Goemans, H.E.. 2011. The Making of the Territorial Order: New Borders and the Emergence of Interstate Conflict. International Organization 65 (2):275–310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, David B., Wellhausen, Rachel, and Huth, Paul K.. 2019. International Law, Territorial Disputes, and Foreign Direct Investment. International Studies Quarterly 63 (1):58–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, Nick. 1997. Hudson, Malmesbury and Cavour: British Diplomacy and the Italian Question, February 1858 to June 1859. The Historical Journal 40 (2):389–413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chanda, Areendam, and Putterman, Louis. 2007. Early Starts, Reversals and Catch-up in the Process of Economic Development. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 109 (2):387–413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daniels, Kelly, and Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin. 2017. Bones of Democratic Contention: Maritime Disputes. International Area Studies Review 20 (4):293–310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Disdier, Anne-Célia, and Head, Keith. 2008. The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics 90 (1):37–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
FAO, IIASA. 2000. Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ).Google Scholar
Fazal, Tanisha M. 2004. State Death in the International System. International Organization 58 (2):311–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fravel, M. Taylor. 2008. Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China's Territorial Disputes. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frederick, Bryan A., Hensel, Paul R., and Macaulay, Christopher. 2017. The Issue Correlates of War Territorial Claims Data, 1816–2001. Journal of Peace Research 54 (1):99–108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gibler, Douglas M. 2008. International Military Alliances, 1648–2008. CQ Press.Google Scholar
Gibler, Douglas M. 2012. The Territorial Peace: Borders, State Development, and International Conflict. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goemans, Hein E., and Schultz, Kenneth A. 2017. The Politics of Territorial Claims: A Geospatial Approach Applied to Africa. International Organization 71 (1):31–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gunitsky, Seva. 2014. From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century. International Organization 68 (3):561–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hainmueller, Jens, Mummolo, Jonathan, and Xu, Yiqing. 2019. How Much Should We Trust Estimates from Multiplicative Interaction Models? Simple Tools to Improve Empirical Practice. Political Analysis 27 (2):163–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hensel, Paul R. 2000. Territory: Theory and Evidence on Geography and Conflict. In What Do We Know About War? edited by Vasquez, John A., 57–84. Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Hensel, Paul R. 2001. Contentious Issues and World Politics: The Management of Territorial Claims in the Americas, 1816–1992. International Studies Quarterly 45 (1):81–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hensel, Paul R. 2013. General Codebook: Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Project. University of North Texas (Version 1.1).Google Scholar
Hensel, Paul R., Allison, Michael E., and Khanani, Ahmed. 2009. Territorial Integrity Treaties and Armed Conflict Over Territory. Conflict Management and Peace Science 26 (2):120–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holsti, Kalevi J. 1991. Peace and War: Armed Conflicts and International Order. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1996. Standing Your Ground: Territorial Disputes and International Conflict. University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul K., Croco, Sarah E., and Appel, Benjamin J.. 2011. Does International Law Promote the Peaceful Settlement of International Disputes? Evidence from the Study of Territorial Conflicts Since 1945. American Political Science Review 105 (2):415–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ikenberry, G. John. 2001. After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ikenberry, G. John. 2011. Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Keegan, John. 1994. A History of Warfare. Vintage.Google Scholar
Lee, Hoon, and Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin. 2012. Foreign Direct Investment and Territorial Disputes. Journal of Conflict Resolution 56 (4):675–703.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lemke, Douglas. 1995. The Tyranny of Distance: Redefining Relevant Dyads. International Interactions 21 (1):23–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin. 2002. A Kantian System? Democracy and Third-Party Conflict Resolution. American Journal of Political Science 46 (4):749–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, and Hensel, Paul R.. 2007. International Institutions and Compliance with Agreements. American Journal of Political Science 51 (4):721–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, and Thyne, Clayton L.. 2010. Contentious Issues as Opportunities for Diversionary Behavior. Conflict Management and Peace Science 27 (5):461–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nussli, Christos. 2010. Euratlas Historical Atlas and Gazetteer of Europe. Available at <www.euratlas.com>..>Google Scholar
Oster, Emily. 2019. Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 39 (2):1–18.Google Scholar
Oswiak, Andrew P., Cuttner, Allison K., and Buck, Brent. 2018. The International Border Agreements Dataset. Conflict Management and Peace Science 35 (5):559–76.Google Scholar
Reed, Frank. 2008. Centennia Historical Atlas. Available at <www.historicalatlas.com>..>Google Scholar
Reinhart, Carmen M., and Rogoff, Kenneth S.. 2009. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Sarkees, Meredieth Reid, and Wayman, Frank. 2010. Resort to War: 1816–2007. Correlates of War. CQ Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2015. Borders, Conflict, and Trade. Annual Review of Political Science 18:125–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2017. Mapping Interstate Territorial Conflict: A New Data Set and Applications. Journal of Conflict Resolution 61 (7):1565–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schweller, Randall L. 1994. Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In. International Security 19 (1):72–107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Senese, Paul D., and Vasquez, John A.. 2008. The Steps to War: An Empirical Study. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shaver, Andrew, Carter, David B., and Shawa, Tsering Wangyal. 2019. Terrain Ruggedness and Land Cover: Improved Data for Most Research Designs. Conflict Management and Peace Science 36 (2):191–218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simmons, Beth A. 2005. Rules Over Real Estate; Trade, Territorial Conflict and International Borders as Institutions. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (6):823–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart, and Stuckey, John. 1972. Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965. In Peace, War, and Numbers, edited by Russett, Bruce M., 19–48. Sage.Google Scholar
Spector, Paul E. 1992. Summated Rating Scale Construction: An Introduction. Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sprandel, R. 1968. Das Eisengewerbe im Mittelalter. A. Hiersemann.Google Scholar
Strachan, Hew. 1983. European Armies and the Conduct of War. George Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
Tooze, Adam. 2014. The Deluge: The Great War, America, and the Remaking of the Global Order, 1916–1931. Penguin.Google Scholar
Vasquez, John, and Henehan, Marie T.. 2001. Territorial Disputes and the Probability of War, 1816–1992. Journal of Peace Research 38 (2):123–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vasquez, John A. 2009. The War Puzzle Revisited. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. McGraw Hill.Google Scholar
Wolf, Nikolaus. 2005. Path Dependent Border Effects: The Case of Poland's Reunification (1918–1939). Explorations in Economic History 42 (3):414–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wood, Simon N. 2006. Low-Rank Scale-Invariant Tensor Product Smooths for Generalized Additive Mixed Models. Biometrics 62 (4):1025–36.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wright, Owen J. 2008. British Representatives and the Surveillance of Italian Affairs, 1860–70. The Historical Journal 51 (3):669–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zacher, Mark W. 2001. The Territorial Integrity Norm: International Boundaries and the Use of Force. International Organization 55 (2):215–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Abramson and Carter supplementary material

Abramson and Carter supplementary material

Download Abramson and Carter supplementary material(File)
File 9 MB
Supplementary material: Link

Abramson and Carter Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/SYJZNG
Link