Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-t5tsf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-05T11:31:18.322Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Rebel Groups, International Humanitarian Law, and Civil War Outcomes in the Post-Cold War Era

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 May 2020

Jessica A. Stanton Open the ORCID record for Jessica A. Stanton [Opens in a new window]
Get access

Abstract

Do rebel group violations of international humanitarian law during civil war—in particular, attacks on noncombatant civilians—affect conflict outcomes? I argue that in the post-Cold War era, rebel groups that do not target civilians have used the framework of international humanitarian law to appeal for diplomatic support from Western governments and intergovernmental organizations. However, rebel group appeals for international diplomatic support are most likely to be effective when the rebel group can contrast its own restraint toward civilians with the government's abuses. Rebel groups that do not target civilians in the face of government abuses, therefore, are likely to be able to translate increased international diplomatic support into more favorable conflict outcomes. Using original cross-national data on rebel group violence against civilians in all civil wars from 1989 to 2010, I show that rebel groups that exercise restraint toward civilians in the face of government violence are more likely to secure favorable conflict outcomes. I also probe the causal mechanism linking rebel group behavior to conflict outcomes, showing that when a rebel group exercises restraint toward civilians and the government commits atrocities, Western governments and intergovernmental organizations are more likely to take coercive diplomatic action against the government. The evidence shows that rebel groups can translate this increased diplomatic support into favorable political outcomes.

Keywords

Civil warscivilian targetingviolence against civiliansinternational humanitarian law
Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 74 , Issue 3 , Summer 2020 , pp. 523 - 559
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abrahms, Max. 2012. The Political Effectiveness of Terrorism Revisited. Comparative Political Studies 45 (3):366–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amnesty International. 1985. East Timor Violations of Human Rights: Extrajudicial Executions, “Disappearances,” Torture and Political Imprisonment. Amnesty International.Google Scholar
Amnesty International. 2004. Uganda: Stop the Slaughter. Amnesty International Report.Google Scholar
Aspinall, Edward. 2009. Islam and Nation: Separatist Rebellion in Aceh, Indonesia. Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aydin, Aysegul. 2012. Foreign Powers and Intervention in Armed Conflicts. Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Balcells, Laia. 2017. Rivalry and Revenge: The Politics of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balch-Lindsay, Dylan, Enterline, Andrew J., and Joyce, Kyle A.. 2008. Third-Party Intervention and the Civil War Process. Journal of Peace Research 45 (3):345–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bellamy, Alex J., and Williams, Paul D.. 2011. The New Politics of Protection? Côte d'Ivoire, Libya and the Responsibility to Protect. International Affairs 87 (4):825–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bird, Annie R. 2015. US Foreign Policy on Transitional Justice. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bob, Clifford. 2005. The Marketing of Rebellion: Insurgents, Media, and International Activism. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bovcon, Maja. 2009. France's Conflict Resolution Strategy in Côte d'Ivoire and its Ethical Implications. African Studies Quarterly 11 (1):1–24.Google Scholar
Braumoeller, Bear. 2004. Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms. International Organization 58 (4):807–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brunnée, Jutta, and Toope, Stephen J.. 2010. Legitimacy and Legality in International Law: An Interactional Account. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coggins, Bridget. 2011. Friends in High Places: International Politics and the Emergence of States from Secessionism. International Organization 65 (3):433–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cunningham, David E. 2011. Barriers to Peace in Civil War. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cunningham, David E., Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Salehyan, Idean. 2009. It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (4):570–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher. 2011. Divide and Conquer or Divide and Concede: How Do States Respond to Internally Divided Separatists? American Political Science Review 105 (2):275–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeRouen, Karl, and Chowdhury, Ishita. 2018. Mediation, Peacekeeping and Civil War Peace Agreements. Defence and Peace Economics 29 (2):130–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeRouen, Karl, and Sobek, David. 2004. The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome. Journal of Peace Research 41 (3):303–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Donno, Daniela. 2010. Who Is Punished? Regional Intergovernmental Organizations and the Enforcement of Democratic Norms. International Organization 64 (4):593–625.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downes, Alexander B. 2007. Draining the Sea by Filling the Graves: Investigating the Effectiveness of Indiscriminate Violence as a Counterinsurgency Strategy. Civil Wars 9 (4):420–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doyle, Michael W., and Sambanis, Nicholas. 2006. Making War and Building Peace: United Nations Peace Operations. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Drezner, Daniel. 1999. The Sanctions Paradox: Economic Statecraft and International Relations. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eck, Kristine, and Hultman, Lisa. 2007. One-Sided Violence Against Civilians in War: Insights from New Fatality Data. Journal of Peace Research 44 (2):233–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fazal, Tanisha M. 2018. Wars of Law: Unintended Consequences in the Regulation of Armed Conflict. Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (3):379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James. 2004. Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others? Journal of Peace Research 41 (3):275–301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James, and Laitin, David. 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review 97 (1):75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Findley, Michael G., and Teo, Tze Kwang. 2006. Rethinking Third-Party Interventions into Civil Wars: An Actor-Centric Approach. Journal of Politics 68 (4):828–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fortna, Virginia Page. 2009. Where Have All the Victories Gone? Peacekeeping and War Outcomes. Paper presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Toronto.Google Scholar
Fortna, Virginia Page. 2015. Do Terrorists Win? Rebels’ Use of Terrorism and Civil War Outcomes. International Organization 69 (3):519–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gates, Scott, and Strand, Havard. 2006. Modeling the Duration of Civil Wars: Measurement and Estimation Issues. Working Paper. PRIO: Centre for the Study of Civil War.Google Scholar
Gibler, Douglas M. 2009. International Military Alliances, 1648–2008. CQ Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2002. Expanded Trade and GDP Data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (5):712–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, and Strand, Havard. 2002. Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39 (5):615–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gorjao, Paulo. 2001. The End of a Cycle: Australian and Portuguese Foreign Policies and the Fate of East Timor. Contemporary Southeast Asia 23 (1):101–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greig, J. Michael, and Regan, Patrick M.. 2008. When Do They Say Yes? An Analysis of the Willingness to Offer and Accept Mediation in Civil Wars. International Studies Quarterly 52 (4):759–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. 2008. Sticks and Stones: Naming and Shaming the Human Rights Enforcement Problem. International Organization 62 (4):689–716.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hayner, Priscilla. 2018. The Peacemaker's Paradox: Pursuing Justice in the Shadow of Conflict. Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hazen, Jennifer M. 2013. What Rebels Want: Resources and Supply Networks in Wartime. Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henckaerts, Jean-Marie and Doswald-Beck, Louise. 2005. Customary International Humanitarian Law, Volume 1: Rules. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hendrix, Cullen S. 2010. Measuring State Capacity: Theoretical and Empirical Implications for the Study of Civil Conflict. Journal of Peace Research 47 (3):273–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hogbladh, Stina, Pettersson, Therese, and Themner, Lotte. 2011. External Support in Armed Conflict, 1975–2009. Paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Meeting, Montreal.Google Scholar
Howse, Robert, and Teitel, Ruti. 2010. Beyond Compliance: Rethinking Why International Law Really Matters. Global Policy 1 (2):127–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huang, Reyko. 2016. Rebel Diplomacy in Civil War. International Security 40 (4):89–126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hultman, Lisa. 2007. Battle Losses and Rebel Violence: Raising the Costs for Fighting. Terrorism and Political Violence 19 (2):205–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hultman, Lisa. 2012. Attacks on Civilians in Civil War: Targeting the Achilles Heel of Democratic Governments. International Interactions 38 (2):164–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Human Rights Watch. 1998. Sowing Terror: Atrocities Against Civilians in Sierra Leone. Human Rights Watch Report 10 (3).Google Scholar
Human Rights Watch. 2002. Back to the Brink: War Crimes by Liberian Government and Rebels. Human Rights Watch Report 14 (4).Google Scholar
Hurd, Ian. 2017. How to Do Things with International Law. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul, Croco, Sarah, and Appel, Benjamin. 2011. Does International Law Promote the Peaceful Settlement of International Disputes? Evidence from the Study of Territorial Conflicts Since 1945. American Political Science Review 105 (2):415–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul, Croco, Sarah, and Appel, Benjamin. 2012a. Law and the Use of Force in World Politics: The Varied Effects of Law on the Exercise of Military Power in Territorial Disputes. International Studies Quarterly 56 (1):17–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul, Croco, Sarah, and Appel, Benjamin. 2012b. Bringing Law to the Table: Legal Claims, Focal Points, and the Settlement of Territorial Disputes Since 1945. American Journal of Political Science 57 (1):90–103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
International Crisis Group. 2002a. Liberia: The Key to Ending Regional Instability. ICG Africa Report 43.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group. 2002b. Liberia: Unravelling. ICG Africa Briefing 10.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group. 2003. Tackling Liberia: The Eye of the Regional Storm. ICG Africa Report 62.Google Scholar
Jo, Hyeran. 2015. Compliant Rebels: Rebel Groups and International Law in World Politics. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Käihkö, Ilmari. 2015. “Taylor Must Go”—The Strategy of the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy. Small Wars and Insurgencies 26 (2):248–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis N. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keck, Margaret E., and Sikkink, Kathryn. 1998. Activists Beyond Borders: Advocacy Networks in International Politics. Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44 (2):347–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuperman, Alan J. 2008. The Moral Hazard of Humanitarian Intervention: Lessons from the Balkans. International Studies Quarterly 52 (1):49–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lacina, Bethany, and Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 2005. Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset of Battle Deaths. European Journal of Population 21 (2):145–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lebovic, James H., and Voeten, Erik. 2006. The Politics of Shame: The Condemnation of Country Human Rights Practices in the UNCHR. International Studies Quarterly 50 (4):861–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, Ritter, Jeffrey, Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, and Long, Andrew. 2002. Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815–1944. International Interactions 28 (3):237–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lemke, Douglas, and Regan, Patrick M.. 2004. Interventions as Influence. In The Scourge of War: New Extensions on an Old Problem, edited by Diehl, Paul, 145–68. University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lyall, Jason. 2009. Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechnya. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (3):331–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marcus, Aliza. 2007. Blood and Belief: the PKK and the Kurdish Fight for Independence. NYU Press.Google Scholar
Marker, Jamsheed. 2003. East Timor: A Memoir of the Negotiations for Independence. McFarland.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., and Jaggers, Keith. 2009. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2007. Center for Systemic Peace.Google Scholar
Mason, T. David, and Fett, Patrick. 1996. How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach. The Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (4):546–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, T. David, Weingarten, Joseph, and Fett, Patrick. 1999. Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars. Political Research Quarterly 52 (2):239–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McAdams, Richard, and Nadler, Janice. 2008. Coordinating in the Shadow of the Law. Law and Society Review 42 (4):865–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, T. Clifton, Bapat, Navin, and Kobayashi, Yoshiharu. 2014. Threat and Imposition of Economic Sanctions 1945–2005: Updating the TIES Dataset. Conflict Management and Peace Science 31 (5):541–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D. 2014. Order Within Anarchy: The Laws of War as an International Institution. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murdie, Amanda, and Peksen, Dursun. 2013. The Impact of Human Rights INGO Activities on Economic Sanctions. The Review of International Organizations 8 (1):33–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murdie, Amanda, and Peksen, Dursun. 2014. The Impact of Human Rights INGO Shaming on Humanitarian Interventions. The Journal of Politics 76 (1):215–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murphy, Ann Marie. 2010. US Rapprochement with Indonesia: From Problem State to Partner. Contemporary Southeast Asia 32 (3):362–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nilsson, Desirée, and Kovacs, Mimmi Söderberg. 2005. Breaking the Cycle of Violence? Promises and Pitfalls of the Liberian Peace Process. Civil Wars 7 (4):396–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orford, Anne. 2011. International Authority and the Responsibility to Protect. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prorok, Alyssa K. 2016. Leader Incentives and Civil War Outcomes. American Journal of Political Science 60 (1):70–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prorok, Alyssa K., and Appel, Benjamin J.. 2014. Compliance with International Humanitarian Law: Democratic Third Parties and Civilian Targeting in Interstate War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (4):713–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramos-Horta, José. 1987. Funu: The Unfinished Saga of East Timor. Red Sea Press.Google Scholar
Regan, Patrick. 2002. Civil Wars and Foreign Powers: Outside Intervention in Intrastate Conflict. University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Regan, Patrick, and Aydin, Aysegul. 2006. Diplomacy and Other Forms of Intervention in Civil Wars. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (5):736–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ron, James, Ramos, Howard, and Rodgers, Kathleen. 2005. Transnational Information Politics: NGO Human Rights Reporting, 1986–2000. International Studies Quarterly 49 (3):557–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salehyan, Idean, Siroky, David, and Wood, Reed M.. 2014. External Rebel Sponsorship and Civilian Abuse: A Principal-Agent Analysis of Wartime Atrocities. International Organization 68 (3): 633–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simmons, Beth. 2010. Treaty Compliance and Violation. Annual Review of Political Science 13 (1):273–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simmons, Beth, and Danner, Allison. 2010. Credible Commitments and the International Criminal Court. International Organization 64 (2):225–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stanton, Jessica A. 2013. Terrorism in the Context of Civil War. The Journal of Politics 75 (4):1009–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stanton, Jessica A. 2016. Violence and Restraint in Civil War: Civilian Targeting in the Shadow of International Law. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, John G. 1999. East Timor: The Price of Freedom. Zed Books.Google Scholar
Teitel, Ruti. 2011. Humanity's Law. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thomas, Jakana. 2014. Rewarding Bad Behavior: How Governments Respond to Terrorism in Civil War. American Journal of Political Science 58 (4):804–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Toft, Monica Duffy. 2009. Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Toft, Monica Duffy, and Zhukov, Yuri M.. 2012. Denial and Punishment in the North Caucasus: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Coercive Counter-Insurgency. Journal of Peace Research 49 (6):785–800.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
UN Commission on Human Rights. 1993. 49th Session, Summary Record of the 52nd Meeting, Second Part, held 3 March 1993 (E/CN.4/1993/SR.52/Add.1).Google Scholar
UN Commission on Human Rights, Sub-Commission on Prevention of Discrimination and Protection of Minorities. 1993. 45th Session, Summary Record of the 13th Meeting, held 11 August 1993 (EN/CN.4/Sub.2/1993/SR.13).Google Scholar
Valentino, Benjamin, Huth, Paul, and Balch-Lindsay, Dylan. 2004. “Draining the Sea”: Mass Killing and Guerrilla Warfare. International Organization 58 (2):375–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2002. Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2009. Reputation and Civil War: Why Separatist Conflicts Are So Violent. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weinstein, Jeremy M. 2007. Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Wood, Reed M. 2014. From Loss to Looting? Battlefield Costs and Rebel Incentives for Violence. International Organization 68 (4): 979–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wood, Reed M., and Kathman, Jacob D.. 2014. Too Much of a Bad Thing? Civilian Victimization and Bargaining in Civil War. British Journal of Political Science 44 (3):685–706.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Stanton dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/5PEDGW
Link
Supplementary material: File

Stanton supplementary material

Stanton supplementary material 1

Download Stanton supplementary material(File)
File 16.3 KB
Supplementary material: PDF

Stanton supplementary material

Stanton supplementary material 2

Download Stanton supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 561.4 KB