1. The term “structural” is itself perhaps not the most felicitous one to use, since it is employed so frequently and with a wide variety of meanings. However, there exists no better substitute. The leading rival, “microeconomic,” also is not quite satisfactory because it excludes formulations such as balance-of-power theories, which are not part of microeconomics per se. It is also misleading because some research programs within microeconomics do not adopt the orthodox assumptions. See, for example, Katona, George, Psychological Economics (New York: Elsevier, 1977)Google Scholar; Alhadeff, David A., Microeconomics and Human Behavior: Toward a New Synthesis of Economics and Psychology (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1980).Google Scholar

2. Since much balance-of-power writing is not very theoretically self-conscious, it is not clear that all such writings can be described as “structural.”

3. See, for example, Lake, David A., “Beneath the Commerce of Nations: A Theory of International Economic Structures,” International Studies Quarterly 28 (06 1984), pp. 143–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar; “International Economic Structures and American Foreign Economic Policy, 1887–1934,” World Politics 35 (July 1983), pp. 517–43.Google Scholar

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14. The notion of reference level is similar to but broader than that of an aspiration level.

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17. A situation in which the precise nature of the decision-making process is unimportant would likely be one in which a goal-seeking entity exists in a relatively placid and simple environment.

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19. For example, it might be the case that decisions concerning the application of military force are more suited to analysis in terms of orthodox maximization frameworks than are other decisions where the requirements for following an orthodox maximization process are not met so well. (These requirements at a minimum would seem to consist of actors possessing a clear sense of the possible outcomes; preferences defined over the set of outcomes; a clear sense of available alternatives.)

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22. Cyert, Richard M. and Simon, Herbert A., “The Behavioral Approach: With Emphasis on Economics,” Behavioral Science 28 (04 1983), pp. 95–108CrossRefGoogle Scholar. The empirical performance of the neoclassical theory of the firm seems particularly relevant to an assessment of the efficacy of modeling the behavior of states as if they were firmlike entities. Given that their existence in a capitalist system subjects firms to institutional “rules of the game,” and given the calculational advantages of frequently being able to attach monetary values to outcomes, we may expect expected-utility models to predict the behavior of firms more accurately than they predict the behavior of nations. The less than impressive results actually obtained after decades of work by economists do not bode well for the success of a corresponding effort applied to states.

23. Moreover, for simple navigational problems, a geocentric model of the cosmos is used even today, because it is accurate enough for the purpose at hand, and because it is a much simpler theory than the Copernican theory. See Kuhn, Thomas S., The Copernican Revolution (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1957), p. 38Google Scholar. Thus, if our purpose were limited to this application, we would have no reason to abandon the geocentric model. Only if the domain of prediction were enlarged or the requirements for accuracy strengthened would we have any reason to question the geocentric system or to develop a more accurate account of the processes generating outcomes of interest.

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32. Waltz, , Theory of International Politics, p. 137Google Scholar; Ibid., pp. 137–38; Starbuck, William H., “Organizational Growth and Development,” in Starbuck, , ed., Organizational Growth and Development (Middlesex, England: Penguin, 1971), p. 31.Google Scholar

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34. Winter, , “Economic ‘Natural Selection’”Google Scholar; and Waltz, , Theory of International Politics, pp. 121–22.Google Scholar

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43. Ibid., p. 389.

44. Johnson, Harry G., “Optimum Tariffs and Retaliation,” Review of Economics Studies 21 (1954)Google Scholar; Ibid., p. 153; Schelling, Thomas C., “Hockey Helmets, Concealed Weapons, and Daylight Saving: A Study of Binary Choice with Externalities,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 17 (09 1973), pp. 381–428CrossRefGoogle Scholar. This latter conclusion points to the danger of attempting to generalize from the two-country to the n-country world, as Scitovsky attempted to do in his sketch. The defection of a few countries from free trade might not be a sufficient condition for the defection of all countries.

45. Kuga, Kiyoshi, “Tariff Retaliation and Policy Equilibrium,” Journal of International Economics 3 (11 1973), pp. 351–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Otani, Yoshiko, “Strategic Equilibrium of Tariffs and General Equilibrium,” Econometrica 48 (04 1980), pp. 643–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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47. Becker, Gary, The Economics of Discrimination (Chicago: Aldine, 1957).Google Scholar

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50. While Gilpin has presented an embryonic theory of hegemonic rise and decline, the argument contains no feedback loop running from the opening of the trading system to the strength of the hegemonic state—except perhaps the implicit argument that the leader's technological advantage diffuses more rapidly in an open system than in a less open one. However, if diffusion of technology proceeds via such mechanisms as direct foreign investment and university training of foreigners, then the nature of the trade regime may not be very important. Nor does Gilpin's argument attempt to relate the appearance of new hegemons to a certain set of international “structural” conditions.

51. A related difficulty in modeling global tariff changes is that showing that some nations will gain from free trade is not sufficient to “explain” tariff reductions; conversely, showing that some nations will lose from free trade does not explain tariff increases. Since world imports equal world exports, if some country is experiencing increased exports (hence, a greater interest in lowering trade barriers), some other country or countries must be experiencing increases in imports (hence, more resistance to liberalization is likely in these countries). Unless the gaining country has more political influence than the losing country, one has no basis for predicting changes in overall tariff levels simply as a result of shifts in export surpluses.

52. Conybeare, John, “A Comparative Study of Selected Trade Wars: Anglo-Hanse, Late 19th Century European, Hawley Smoot, Chickens and Steel” (Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,Washington, D.C.,September 1984)Google Scholar; Keohane, , After Hegemony, pp. 135–81Google Scholar; Katzenstein, Peter J., Corporatism and Change: Austria, Switzerland, and the Politics of Industry (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984).Google Scholar

53. Kindleberger, Charles P., “Group Behavior and International Trade,” Journal of Political Economy 13 (1951)Google Scholar; Lavergne, Real P., The Political Economy of U.S. Tariffs: An Empirical Analysis (Toronto: Academic, 1983)Google Scholar, provides the most useful summary of economists' empirical work.

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55. McKeown, Timothy J., “Firms and Tariff Regime Change: Explaining the Demand for Protection,” World Politics 36 (1984)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Another intriguing alternative to unitary utility-maximization treatments not discussed in this article is provided by the rapidly expanding area of artificial intelligence models of the foreign-policy decision-making process. For an introduction to this literature, see Sylvan, Donald A. and Steve, Chan, eds., Foreign Policy Decision Making: Perception, Cognition, and Artificial Intelligence (New York: Praeger, 1984).Google Scholar