Article contents
International interdependence: Some long-term trends and recent changes
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 22 May 2009
Abstract
This paper provides data on long-term changes in international interdependence. Transactions exchanged between societies and states are one possible means of interdependence. Two decades ago Karl Deutsch collected a substantial amount of data which illustrated a long-term decline in transactions since the beginning of the twentieth century. An extension of his time series data points to a possibly important reversal of that trend in recent years. This conclusion is in agreement with other empirical measures of international interdependence.
- Type
- Articles
- Information
- Copyright
- Copyright © The IO Foundation 1975
References
1 Cooper, Richard N., The Economics of Interdependence: Economic Policy in the Atlantic Community (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1968)Google Scholar. Cooper, , “Economic Interdependence and Foreign Policy in the Seventies,” World Politics 24, 2 (01 1972): 159–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Keohane, Robert O. and Nye, Joseph S. Jr, (eds.), Transnational Relations and World Politics (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1972)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Morse, Edward L., “Transnational Economic Processes,” in Keohane, and Nye, , Transnational Relations, pp. 23–47Google Scholar. Waltz, Kenneth N., “The Myth of Interdependence,” in Kindleberger, Charles P. (ed.), The International Corporation (Cambridge, Mass.: M. I. T. Press, 1970), pp. 205–23Google Scholar. Rosecrance, Richard N. and Stein, Arthur, “Interdependence: Myth or Reality,” World Politics 26, 1 (10 1973): 1–27CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Many of the important articles on international interdependence will be reprinted in a forthcoming volume edited by Rosecrance and Stein, Interdependence in World Politics (tentative title).
2 Katzenstein, Peter J., “International Relations and Domestic Structures: Foreign Economic Policies of Advanced Industrial States,” International Organization 29, no. 4, 1975. (In press.)Google Scholar
3 See, for example, Morse, , “Transnational Economic Processes,” pp. 34–45Google Scholar and Rosecrance, and Stein, , “Interdependence,” pp. 5–18Google Scholar.
4 For example, see Deutsch, Karl W., “Power and Communication in International Society,” in de Reuek, A. V. S. and Knight, Julie, (eds.), Ciba Foundation Symposium on Conflict in Society (London: A. Churchill, 1966), pp. 300–1Google Scholar.
5 Young, Oran R., “Interdependencies in World Politics,” International Journal 24, 1 (Winter 1968–1969): 734Google Scholar.
6 Morse, Edward L., “The Politics of Interdependence,” International Organization 23, 2 (Spring 1969): 318CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
7 Cooper, The Economics of Interdependence.
8 Rosecrance, and Stein, , “Interdependence,” pp. 6–7Google Scholar.
9 Cooper, , The Economics of Interdependence, p. 3Google Scholar; Bergsten, C. Fred, “The Future of the International Economic Order: An Agenda for Research,” in Bergsten, C. Fred (ed.), The Future of the International Economic Order: An Agenda for Research (Lexington, Mass.: D. C. Heath, 1973), p. 3Google Scholar.
10 Kuznets, Simon, Modern Economic Growth: Rate Structure and Spread (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1966), pp. 326–7Google Scholar.
11 Calleo, David P. and Rowland, Benjamin M., America and the World Political Economy: Atlantic Dreams and National Realities (Bloomington, Ind.: Indiana University Press, 1973), p. 163Google Scholar.
12 Keohane, Robert O. and Nye, Joseph S., “World Politics and the International Economic System,” in Bergsten, , The Future of the International Economic Order, p. 140Google Scholar; Raymond Vernon, “A Program of Research on Foreign Direct Investment,” ibid., p. 93; Bergsten, ibid., p. 3.
13 Russell, Robert W., “Crisis Management in the International Monetary System, 1960–1973,” Paper prepared for delivery at the International Studies Association Convention, New York City, 03 16, 1973, p. 35Google Scholar.
14 Kuznets, p. 52.
15 Morse, , “Transnational Economic Processes,” p. 35Google Scholar.
16 Angell, Robert C., Peace on the March: Transnational Participation (New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Co., 1969)Google Scholar.
17 Deutsch, Karl W. and Eckstein, Alexander, “National Industrialization and the Declining Share of the International Economic Sector, 1890–1959,” World Politics 13, 2 (01 1961): 267–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Deutsch, Karl W., “Social Mobilization and Political Development,” American Political Science Review 55, 3 (09 1961): 500–1CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
18 Deutsch, Karl W., “International Communications: The Media and Flows,” Public Opinion Quarterly 20, 1 (Spring 1956): 147Google Scholar. Wilhelm, John, “The Re-appearing Foreign Correspondent: A World Survey,” Journalism Quarterly, (Spring, 1963): 152–3Google Scholar.
19 Calculated from the “Dimensionality of Nations,” data tape, R. J. Rummel, Senior Investigator.
20 Deutsch, Karl W., The Nerves of Government: Models of Political Communication and Control (New York: The Free Press, 1966)Google Scholar.
21 Deutsch, and Eckstein, , “National Industrialization,” pp. 272–92Google Scholar; Deutsch, Karl W. and Russett, Bruce M., “International Trade and Political Independence,” The American Behavioral Scientist 6, 7 (03 1963): 18–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Deutsch, Karl W., Bliss, Chester I. and Eckstein, Alexander, “Population, Sovereignty and the Share of Foreign Trade,” Economic Development and Cultural Change 10, 4 (07 1962): 353–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
22 Deutsch, Karl W., “International Communications,” pp. 150–6Google Scholar. Deutsch, Karl W., “The Propensity to International Transactions,” Political Studies 8, 2 (1960): 151CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
23 Calculated from the data tape of “World Handbook II,” Charles L. Taylor and Michael C. Hudson, Senior Investigators.
24 Calculated from Union Postale Universelle, Statistique des Services Postaux 1969.
25 Kuznets, pp. 316–9; Deutsch, and Eckstein, , “National Industrialization,” pp. 275–88Google Scholar. The interpretation of these findings is affected by the measurement of foreign trade in current rather than constant prices. If measured in constant prices the foreign trade ratio has remained roughly constant between the 1920s and the 1950s; in five instances in table V the ratio increased and in the other five it declined. See Kuznets, pp. 313–4.
26 Bergsten, p. 3; Waltz, p. 209; Cooper, , The Economics of Interdependence, p. 3Google Scholar; Russett, Bruce M., International Regions and the International System: A Study in Political Ecology (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1967), p. 223Google Scholar.
27 Calculated from the “Dimensionality of Nations,” and “World Handbook II.” 1955 data are taken from Deutsch, and Russett, , “International Trade,” p. 19Google Scholar.
28 Deutsch, and Russett, , “International Trade,” p. 19Google Scholar; U.N. Statistical Yearbook 1972, pp. 398–405; US Department of Commerce, “Selected USSR and Eastern European Economic Data,” 06 1973, p. 43Google Scholar; Agency for International Development, “Gross National Product: Growth Rates and Trend Data by Region and Country,” 05 1972Google Scholar.
29 1971 data, Agency for International Development as reported in The World Almanac and Book of Facts 1974, pp. 619–20Google Scholar. U.N. Yearbook of National Accounts Statistics 1972, vol. 3, pp. 3–7. The shift in the source was made in order to replicate as fully as possible the analysis of Deutsch and Russett.
30 Deutsch, , “Propensity to Transactions,” p. 155Google Scholar.
- 31
- Cited by