Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-q99xh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T06:05:20.113Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Ethnic Stratification and the Equilibrium of Inequality: Ethnic Conflict in Postcolonial States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 November 2017

Manuel Vogt
Get access

Abstract

Why are ethnic movements more likely to turn violent in some multiethnic countries than in others? Focusing on the long-term legacies of European overseas colonialism, I investigate the effect of distinct ethnic cleavage types on the consequences of ethnic group mobilization. The colonial settler states and other stratified multiethnic states are characterized by an equilibrium of inequality in which historically marginalized groups lack both the organizational strength and the opportunities for armed rebellion. In contrast, ethnic mobilization in the decolonized states and other segmented multiethnic societies is more likely to trigger violent conflict. I test these arguments in a global quantitative study from 1946 to 2009, using new data on the linguistic and religious segmentation of ethnic groups. The results confirm that the extremely unequal colonial settler states experience less violence than the decolonized states and other multiethnic countries. Ethnic conflict is generally more likely the more segmented and less hierarchically structured multiethnic states are. Specifically, stable between-group hierarchies reduce the risk of governmental conflict, whereas segmentation affects secessionist violence.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 72 , Issue 1 , Winter 2018 , pp. 105 - 137
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acemoglu, Daron, Johnson, Simon, and Robinson, James. 2001. The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. The American Economic Review 91 (5):1369–401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, Daron, and Robinson, James. 2012. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty. New York: Crown.Google Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, Devleeschauwer, Arnaud, Easterly, William, Kurlat, Sergio, and Wacziarg, Romain. 2003. Fractionalization. Journal of Economic Growth 8 (2):155–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barth, Fredrik. 1969. Introduction. In Ethnic Groups and Boundaries: The Social Organization of Culture Difference, edited by Barth, Fredrik, 9–38. Bergen: Universitetsforlaget.Google Scholar
Bernhard, Michael, Reenock, Christopher, and Nordstrom, Timothy. 2004. The Legacy of Western Overseas Colonialism on Democratic Survival. International Studies Quarterly 48 (1):225–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanton, Robert, Mason, T. David, and Athow, Brian. 2001. Colonial Style and Post-Colonial Ethnic Conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research 38 (4):473–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blaydes, Lisa, and Paik, Christopher. 2016. The Impact of Holy Land Crusades on State Formation: War Mobilization, Trade Integration, and Political Development in Medieval Europe. International Organization 70 (3):551–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bormann, Nils-Christian, Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Vogt, Manuel. 2017. Language, Religion, and Ethnic Civil War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 61 (4):744–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brancati, Dawn. 2006. Decentralization: Fueling the Fire or Dampening the Flames of Ethnic Conflict and Secessionism? International Organization 60 (3):651–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, David B., and Signorino, Curtis S.. 2010. Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data. Political Analysis 18 (3):271–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Buhaug, Halvard. 2013. Inequality, Grievances and Civil War. New York: Cambridge Univerisity Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, Salehyan, Idean, and Wucherpfennig, Julian. 2013. Transborder Ethnic Kin and Civil War. International Organization 67 (2):389–410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Wimmer, Andreas, and Min, Brian. 2010. Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis. World Politics 62 (1):87–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chandra, Kanchan. 2005. Ethnic Parties and Democratic Stability. Perspectives on Politics 3 (2):235–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collier, Paul. 2009. Wars, Guns, and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places. New York: Harper Perennial.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 2004. Greed and Grievance in Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers 56 (4):563–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coppedge, Michael, Lindberg, Staffan I., Skaaning, Svend-Erik, and Teorell, Jan. 2015. Measuring High Level Democratic Principles Using the V-Dem Data. V-Dem Working Paper Series 2015:6. Available at <https://www.v-dem.net/media/filer_public/61/64/6164b8a0-656c-4840-8ac0-ce9e4a7c2b2f/v-dem_working_paper_2015_6.pdf>. Accessed 18 October 2016..+Accessed+18+October+2016.>Google Scholar
Denny, Elaine K., and Walter, Barbara F.. 2014. Ethnicity and Civil War. Journal of Peace Research 51 (2):199–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, Larry. 1988. Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria: The Failure of the First Republic. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elkins, Caroline, and Pedersen, Susan, eds. 2005. Settler Colonialism in the Twentieth Century. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Esteban, Joan, and Ray, Debraj. 2008. On the Salience of Ethnic Conflict. American Economic Review 98 (5):2185–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David D.. 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. The American Political Science Review 97 (1):75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gamson, William A. 1975. The Strategy of Social Protest. Homewood, IL: Dorsey Press.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Ward, Michael D.. 1999. Interstate System Membership: A Revised List of the Independent States Since 1816. International Interactions 25 (4):393–413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, and Strand, Håvard. 2002. Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39 (5):615–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grandin, Greg. 2000. The Blood of Guatemala. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.Google Scholar
Guelke, Adrian. 2012. Politics in Deeply Divided Societies. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert, Harff, Barbara, Marshall, Monty G., and Scarritt, James R.. 1993. Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert, Jaggers, Keith, and Moore, Will H.. 1989. Polity II Codebook. Boulder, CO: University of Colorado.Google Scholar
Hassner, Ron E. 2009. War on Sacred Grounds. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Hechter, Michael. 1975. Internal Colonialism: The Celtic Fringe in British National Development, 1536–1966. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Hegre, Håvard, and Sambanis, Nicholas. 2006. Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (4):508–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hensel, Paul R. 2014. ICOW Colonial History Data Set, version 1.0. Available at <http://www.paulhensel.org/icowcol.html>. Accessed 4 May 2016..+Accessed+4+May+2016.>Google Scholar
Heston, Alan, Summers, Robert, and Aten, Bettina. 2011. Penn World Table Version 7.0. Philadelphia, PA: Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Philadelphia. Available at <http://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/pwt-releases/pwt-7.0>. Accessed 4 May 2016..+Accessed+4+May+2016.>Google Scholar
Horowitz, Donald L. 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Humphreys, Macartan. 2005. Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanisms. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4):508–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Project, Joshua. 2011. Unreached Peoples of the World. Available at <http://www.joshuaproject.net/>. Accessed 4 December 2014..+Accessed+4+December+2014.>Google Scholar
Juergensmeyer, Mark. 1993. The New Cold War? Religious Nationalism Confronts the Secular State. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44 (2):347–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, and Zeng, Langche. 2001. Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data. Political Analysis 9 (2):137–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laitin, David D. 2000. Language Conflict and Violence: The Straw that Strengthens the Camel's Back. European Journal of Sociology 41 (1):97–137.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lange, Matthew, Mahoney, James, and Hau, Matthias vom. 2006. Colonialism and Development: A Comparative Analysis of Spanish and British Colonies. American Journal of Sociology 111 (5):1412–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, M. Paul, ed. 2009. Ethnologue: Languages of the World. Dallas, TX: SIL International.Google Scholar
Madrid, Raúl. 2012. The Rise of Ethnic Politics in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mahoney, James. 2010. Colonialism and Postcolonial Development: Spanish America in Comparative Perspective. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mann, Michael. 2005. The Dark Side of Democracy: Explaining Ethnic Cleansing. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Marable, Manning. 2007. Race, Reform, and Rebellion: The Second Reconstruction and Beyond in Black America, 1945–2006. 3rd ed. Jackson, MS: University Press of Mississippi.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marx, Anthony W. 1998. Making Race and Nation: A Comparison of South Africa, the United States, and Brazil. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mason, T. David. 2003. Structures of Ethnic Conflict: Revolution Versus Secession in Rwanda and Sri Lanka. Terrorism and Political Violence 15 (4):83–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McAdam, Doug. 1982. Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency, 1930–1970. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
McCarthy, John D., and Zald, Mayer N.. 1977. Resource Mobilization and Social Movements: A Partial Theory. American Journal of Sociology 82 (6):1212–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nunn, Nathan, and Puga, Diego. 2012. Ruggedness: The Blessing of Bad Geography in Africa. Review of Economics and Statistics 94 (1):20–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posner, Daniel N. 2005. Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rabushka, Alvin, and Shepsle, Kenneth. 1972. Politics in Plural Societies: A Theory in Democratic Instability. Columbus, OH: Charles E. Merrill.Google Scholar
Radcliffe-Brown, Alfred R. 1965. Structure and Function in Primitive Society. 6th ed. London, UK: Cohen and West.Google Scholar
Reilly, Benjamin. 2006. Political Engineering and Party Politics in Conflict-Prone Societies. Democratization 13 (5):811–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robinson, James. 2001. Social Identity, Inequality and Conflict. Economics of Governance 2 (1):85–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rogers, William H. 1993. Regression Standard Errors in Clustered Samples. Stata Technical Bulletin 3 (13):88–94.Google Scholar
Saideman, Stephen M. 1997. Explaining the International Relations of Secessionist Conflicts: Vulnerability Versus Ethnic Ties. International Organization 51 (4):721–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sarkees, Meredith R., and Wayman, Frank. 2010. Resort to War: 1816–2007. Washington DC: CQ Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shelef, Nadav G. 2015. Unequal Ground: Homelands and Conflict. International Organization 70 (1):33–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Michael G. 1969. Institutional and Political Conditions of Pluralism. In Pluralism in Africa, edited by Kuper, Leo and Smith, Michael G., 27–65. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Stewart, Frances, ed. 2008. Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies. Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thies, Cameron G. 2010. Of Rulers, Rebels, and Revenue: State Capacity, Civil War Onset, and Primary Commodities. Journal of Peace Research 47 (3):321–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 1978. From Mobilization to Revolution. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 1998. Durable Inequality. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Toft, Monica D. 2003. Indivisible Territory, Geographic Concentration, and Ethnic War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Vail, Leroy. 1989. Introduction: Ethnicity in Southern African History. In The Creation of Tribalism in Southern Africa, edited by Vail, Leroy, 1–19. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Vogt, Manuel. 2016. A New Dawn? Indigenous Movements and Ethnic Inclusion in Latin America. International Studies Quarterly 60 (4):790–801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vreeland, James R. 2008. The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (3):401–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2006. Information, Uncertainty, and the Decision to Secede. International Organization 60 (1):105–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weber, Max. 1976 [1922]. Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft: Grundriss der verstehenden Soziologie [Economy and Society: An Outline of Interpretive Sociology], 5th ed. Tübingen: J.C.B. Mohr.Google Scholar
Weidmann, Nils B. 2009. Geography as Motivation and Opportunity: Group Concentration and Ethnic Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (4):526–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wimmer, Andreas. 2002. Nationalist Exclusion and Ethnic Conflict: Shadows of Modernity. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wimmer, Andreas, Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Min, Brian. 2009. Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Data Set. American Sociological Review 74:316–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wucherpfennig, Julian, Metternich, Nils, Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Gleditsch, Kristian S.. 2012. Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil Wars. World Politics 64 (1):79–115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wucherpfennig, Julian, Weidmann, Nils, Girardin, Luc, Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Wimmer, Andreas. 2011. Politically Relevant Ethnic Groups Across Space and Time: Introducing the GeoEPR Dataset. Conflict Management and Peace Science 28 (5):423–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Young, Crawford. 1994. The African Colonial State in Comparative Perspective. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Vogt supplementary material

Vogt supplementary material 1

Download Vogt supplementary material(File)
File 286.3 KB