Hostname: page-component-f554764f5-nwwvg Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-12T01:52:23.477Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Do Democracies Make Inferior Counterinsurgents? Reassessing Democracy's Impact on War Outcomes and Duration

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2010

Jason Lyall
Jason Lyall
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Yale University, New Haven, Conn. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

A core proposition from decades of research on internal wars asserts that democracies, with their casualty-averse publics, accountable leaders, and free media, are uniquely prone to losing counterinsurgency (COIN) wars. Yet one should question this finding, for two reasons. First, existing studies overwhelmingly adopt no-variance research designs that only examine democracies, leaving them unable to assess their performance relative to autocracies. Second, these studies do not control for confounding factors that bias causal estimates. Democracies, for example, typically fight wars of choice as external occupiers, while most autocracies face homegrown insurgencies, a function in part of divergent levels of state capacity possessed by democratic and autocratic combatants. This study corrects for both problems using a new dataset of insurgencies (1800–2005) and matching to test whether democracies experience significantly higher rates of defeat and shorter wars. No relationship between democracy and war outcomes or duration is found once regime type is varied and inferential threats are addressed.

Type
Research Notes
Information
International Organization , Volume 64 , Issue 1 , January 2010 , pp. 167 - 192
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

REFERENCES

Abrahms, Max. 2007. Why Democracies Make Superior Counterterrorists. Security Studies 16 (2):223–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arreguín-Toft, Ivan. 2005. How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Art, Robert J., and Richardson, Louise. 2007. Democracy and Counterterrorism: Lessons from the Past. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
Ashworth, Scott, Clinton, Joshua D., Meirowitz, Adam, and Ramsay, Kristopher W.. 2008. Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. American Political Science Review 102 (2):269–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, W. Lance. 1990. Toward a Theory of Press-State Relations in the United States. Journal of Communication 40 (2):103–27.Google Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott, and Stam, Allan C. III 1998. The Declining Advantages of Democracy: A Combined Model of War Outcomes and Duration. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42 (3):344–66.Google Scholar
Berrebi, Claude, and Klor, Esteban F.. 2008. Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate. American Political Science Review 102 (3):279–301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Biddle, Stephen. 2006. Seeing Baghdad, Thinking Saigon. Foreign Affairs 85 (2):2–14.Google Scholar
Biddle, Stephen, and Long, Stephen. 2004. Democracy and Military Effectiveness: A Deeper Look. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (4):525–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blaufarb, Douglas. 1977. The Counterinsurgency Era: U.S. Doctrine and Performance, 1950 to the Present. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Boot, Max. 2002. The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of American Power. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Jones, Bradford S.. 2004. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan, and Dickson, Eric. 2007. The Propaganda of the Deed: Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Mobilization. American Journal of Political Science 51 (2):364–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Byman, Daniel, and Waxman, Matthew. 2002. The Dynamics of Coercion: American Foreign Policy and the Limits of Military Might. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Claessen, Erik. 2007. Discouraging Hearts and Minds: Democracies and Insurgencies. Military Review (May–June):97–103.Google Scholar
Clodfelter, Michael. 2002. Warfare and Armed Conflicts: A Statistical Reference to Casualty and Other Figures, 1500–2000. New York: McFarland and Co.Google Scholar
Cohen, Eliot. 1984. Constraints on America's Conduct of Small Wars. International Security 9 (2):151–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Samy. 2008. Democracies at War Against Terrorism: A Comparative Perspective. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collier, David, and Levitsky, Steven. 1997. Democracy with Adjectives: Conceptual Innovation in Comparative Research. World Politics 49 (3):430–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 2004. Greed and Grievance in Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers 56 (4):563–95.Google Scholar
Correlates of War. 2006. Inter-State War Data, 1816–1997. Available at ⟨http://www.correlatesofwar.org⟩. Version 3.0. Accessed 7 October 2009.Google Scholar
Desch, Michael C. 2002. Democracy and Victory: Why Regime Type Hardly Matters. International Security 27 (2):5–47.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry. 2005. Lessons from Iraq. Journal of Democracy 16 (1):9–23.Google Scholar
Dobbins, James, McGinn, John G., Crane, Keith, Jones, Seth G., Lal, Rollie, Rathmell, Andrew, Swanger, Rachel M., and Timilsina, Anga R.. 2003. America's Role in Nation-Building: From Germany to Iraq. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND.Google Scholar
Downes, Alexander B. 2007. Restraint or Propellant? Democracy and Civilian Fatalities in Interstate Wars. Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (6):872–904.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downes, Alexander B. 2008. Targeting Civilians in War. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Downes, Alexander B. 2009. Are Democracies as Smart and Tough as We Think They Are? Reassessing Theories of Democratic Victory in War. International Security 33 (4):9–51.Google Scholar
Eckstein, Harry. 1975. Case Study and Theory in Political Science. In Handbook of Political Science, edited by Greenstein, Fred and Polsby, Nelson, 79–138. Vol. 7. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Edelstein, David M. 2008. Occupational Hazards: Success and Failure in Military Occupation. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Eggenberger, David. 1985. An Encyclopedia of Battles: Accounts of Over 1,560 Battles from 1479 B.C. to the Present. London: Dover.Google Scholar
Engelhardt, Michael. 1992. Democracies, Dictatorships and Counterinsurgency: Does Regime Type Really Matter? Conflict Quarterly 12 (3):52–63.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David D.. 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review 97 (1):75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feaver, Peter D., and Gelpi, Christopher. 2004. Choosing Your Battles: American Civil-Military Relations and the Use of Force. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Finnemore, Martha. 1996. National Interests in International Society. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Fortna, Page. 2004. Where Have All the Victories Gone? War Outcomes in Historical Perspective. Paper presented at the 100th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September, Chicago.Google Scholar
Freedom House. 2008. Freedom in the World Index. Available at ⟨http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=15⟩. Accessed 7 October 2009.Google Scholar
Galula, David. 2006a. Counterinsurgency Warfare. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Galula, David. 2006b. Pacification in Algeria, 1956–58. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND.Google Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund. 2008. The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War: An Experimental Approach. American Political Science Review 102 (1):95–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Barbara. 2003. Paradigms and Sandcastles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, Feaver, Peter D., and Reifler, Jason. 2005/06. Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq. International Security 30 (3):7–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Ward, Michael D.. 2006. Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization. International Organization 60 (4):911–33.Google Scholar
Hammes, Thomas X. 2004. The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century. New York: Zenith Press.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline A., and Hoddie, Matthew. 2007. Crafting Peace: Power-Sharing Institutions and the Negotiated Settlement of Civil Wars. University Park: Pennsylvania University Press.Google Scholar
Hashim, Ahmed S. 2006. Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency in Iraq. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Hegre, Håvard, Ellingsen, Tanja, Gates, Scott, and Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 2001. Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992. American Political Science Review 95 (1):33–48.Google Scholar
Ho, Daniel E., Imai, Kosuke, King, Gary, and Stuart, Elizabeth A.. 2007. Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference. Political Analysis 15 (3):199–236.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ho, Daniel E., Imai, Kosuke, King, Gary, and Stuart, Elizabeth A.. 2009. MatchIt: Nonparametric Preprocessing for Parametric Causal Inference. Available at ⟨http://gking.harvard.edu/matchit⟩. Accessed 7 October 2009.Google Scholar
Hoffmann, Stanley, Huntington, Samuel P., May, Ernest R., Neustadt, Richard N., and Schelling, Thomas C.. 1981. Vietnam Reappraised. International Security 6 (1):3–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horne, Alistair. 1977. A Savage War of Peace: Algeria, 1954–1962. New York: New York Review Book.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Shale, and Sharma, Deepti. 2008. Democracies Fighting Ethnic Insurgencies: Evidence from India. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 31 (8):749–73.Google Scholar
Imai, Kosuke, King, Gary, and Stuart, Elizabeth A.. 2008. Misunderstandings among Experimentalists and Observationalists About Causal Inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 171 (2):481–502.Google Scholar
Inbar, Efraim. 2003. Democracies and Small Wars. Portland, Ore.: Frank Cass.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, Radha, and Monten, Jonathan. 2008. Is There an “Emboldenment” Effect? Evidence from the Insurgency in Iraq. NBER Working Paper No. 13839. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Jebb, Cindy R., Liotta, P. H., Sherlock, Thomas, and Beitler, Ruth Margolies. 2006. The Fight for Legitimacy: Democracy vs. Terrorism. Westport, Conn.: Praeger.Google Scholar
Jentleson, Bruce. 1992. The Pretty Prudent Public: Post-Vietnam American Opinion on the Use of Military Force. International Studies Quarterly 36 (1):49–74.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis N. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kilcullen, David. 2006. Twenty-Eight Articles: Fundamentals of Company-Level Counterinsurgency. Military Review (May-June):103–8.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44 (2):347–61.Google Scholar
King, Gary, and Zeng, Langche. 2006. The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals. Political Analysis 14 (2):131–59.Google Scholar
Krepinevich, Andrew F. Jr. 1986. The Army and Vietnam. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Krepinevich, Andrew F. Jr. 2005. How to Win in Iraq. Foreign Affairs 84 (5):87–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krueger, Alan B., and Laitin, David D.. 2008. Kto Kogo?: A Cross-Country Study of the Origins and Targets of Terrorism. In Terrorism, Economic Development, and Political Openness, edited by Keefer, Philip and Loayza, Norman, 148–73. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Laird, Melvin R. 2005. Iraq: Learning the Lessons of Vietnam. Foreign Affairs 84 (6):22–43.Google Scholar
Lake, David A. 1992. Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War. American Political Science Review 86 (1):24–37.Google Scholar
Lyall, Jason. 2009. Does Indiscriminate Repression Incite Insurgent Violence? Evidence from Chechnya. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (3):331–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyall, Jason, and Wilson, Isaiah III 2009. Rage Against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in Counterinsurgency Wars. International Organization 63 (1):67–106.Google Scholar
Mack, Andrew. 1975. Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars: The Politics of Asymmetric Conflict. World Politics 27 (2):175–200.Google Scholar
Malkasian, Carter. 2006. Signaling Resolve, Democratization, and the First Battle of Fallujah. Journal of Strategic Studies 29 (3):423–52.Google Scholar
Manski, Charles F. 1995. Identification Problems in the Social Sciences. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., and Jaggers, Keith. 2006. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2006. Available at ⟨http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm⟩. Accessed 7 October 2009.Google Scholar
Marston, Daniel, and Malkasian, Carter. 2008. Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare. New York: Osprey Publishing.Google Scholar
Merom, Gil. 2003. How Democracies Lose Small Wars: State, Society, and the Failures of France in Algeria, Israel in Lebanon, and the United States in Vietnam. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Morgan, Stephen L., and Winship, Christopher. 2007. Counterfactuals and Causal Inference: Methods and Principles for Social Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 2007. When Do States Follow the Laws of War? American Political Science Review 101 (3):559–72.Google Scholar
Mueller, John E. 1973. War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. New York: Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Mueller, John E. 1994. Policy and Opinion in the Gulf War. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Munck, Gerardo L., and Verkuilen, Jay. 2002. Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices. Comparative Political Studies 35 (1):5–34.Google Scholar
Nagl, John A. 2005. Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaysia and Vietnam: Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Pape, Robert A. 2005. Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Parker, Tom. 2007. Fighting an Antaean Enemy: How Democratic States Unintentionally Sustain the Terrorist Movements They Oppose. Terrorism and Political Violence 19 (2):155–79.Google Scholar
Polk, William R. 2007. Violent Politics: A History of Insurgency, Terrorism, and Guerrilla War, from the American Revolution to Iraq. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, and Limongi, Fernando. 1997. Modernization: Theories and Facts. World Politics 49 (2):155–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Record, Jeffrey. 2007. Beating Goliath: Why Insurgencies Win. Washington, D.C.: Potomac Books.Google Scholar
Regan, Patrick M. 2002. Third-Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (1):55–73.Google Scholar
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan C.. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan C.. 2003. Understanding Victory: Why Political Institutions Matter. International Security 28 (1):168–79.Google Scholar
Ricks, Thomas E. 2006. Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq. New York: Penguin.Google Scholar
Rubin, Donald B. 2006. Matched Sampling for Causal Effects. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce, and Oneal, John R.. 2001. Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Saunders, Elizabeth. 2007. Wars of Choice: Leadership, Threat Perception and Military Interventions. Ph.D. diss., Yale University.Google Scholar
Sekhon, Jasjeet S. 2006. Alternative Balance Metrics for Bias Reduction in Matching Methods for Causal Inference. Available at: ⟨http://sekhon.berkeley.edu/matching⟩. Accessed 7 October 2009.Google Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2004. How Initiators End Their Wars: The Duration of Warfare and the Terms of Peace. American Journal of Political Science 48 (4):813–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stephan, Maria, and Chenoweth, Erica. 2008. Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict. International Security 33 (1):7–44.Google Scholar
Summers, Harry G. Jr. 1982. On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War. New York: Presidio Press.Google Scholar
Thompson, Robert. 1966. Defeating Communist Insurgency: Experiences from Malaya and Vietnam. London: Chatto and Windus.Google Scholar
Tomz, Michael, Wittenberg, Jason, and King, Gary. 2003. Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results. Version 2.1. Available at: ⟨http://gking.harvard.edu⟩. Accessed 7 October 2009.Google Scholar
Trinquier, Roger. 2006. Modern Warfare: A French View of Counterinsurgency. Westport, Conn.: Praeger.Google Scholar
U.S. Army. 2007. Field Manual No. 3–24. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Valentino, Benjamin, Huth, Paul, and Balch-Lindsay, Dylan. 2004. “Draining the Sea”: Mass Killing and Guerrilla Warfare. International Organization 58 (2):375–407.Google Scholar
Wade, Sarah Jackson, and Reiter, Dan. 2007. Does Democracy Matter? Regime Type and Suicide Terrorism. Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (2):329–48.Google Scholar
Weeks, Jessica. 2008. Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signaling Resolve. International Organization 62 (1):35–64.Google Scholar
Weinberg, Leonard. 2008. Democratic Responses to Terrorism. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Wilkinson, Paul. 2006. Terrorism Versus Democracy: The Liberal State Response. 2d ed.New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Zaller, John, and Chiu, Dennis. 2000. Government's Little Helper: U.S. Press Coverage of Foreign Policy Crises, 1946–1999. In Decisionmaking in a Glass House, edited by Nacos, Brigitte L., Shapiro, Robert Y., and Isernia, Pierangelo, 61–84. New York: Roman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Zhukov, Yuri. 2007. Examining the Authoritarian Model of Counter-Insurgency: The Soviet Campaign Against the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. Small Wars and Insurgencies 18 (3):439–66.Google Scholar