Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-j824f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-05T10:12:13.209Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Dangerous Contenders: Election Monitors, Islamic Opposition Parties, and Terrorism

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 November 2019

Kerim Can Kavakli Open the ORCID record for Kerim Can Kavakli [Opens in a new window]  and
Patrick M. Kuhn Open the ORCID record for Patrick M. Kuhn [Opens in a new window]
Get access

Abstract

How do international observers decide whether to criticize or condone electoral fraud in a country? We argue that this decision depends on the identity of the victims of electoral fraud. A monitoring organization is more likely to overlook fraud committed against groups that are deemed dangerous by its sponsor. Based on this insight, we hypothesize that in the post-Cold War era election monitors are more tolerant of fraud against Islamic challengers, especially when Islamic movements are perceived as a threat to political stability. In support of our hypothesis, we find that outside monitors are more likely to endorse an election in countries with an Islamic opposition party and an ongoing Islamist terrorist campaign. Furthermore, we find that the effect is driven by Western monitoring organizations and becomes stronger after the September 11 attacks. Our findings provide a simple yet powerful insight: the calculus of outside observers depends not only on who they wish to see in power, but also who they want to keep from power.

Keywords

Democracy promotioninternational election observationforeign election interventioninternational securityelections in developing countriesIslamic political partiesIslamist terrorism
Type
Research Note
Information
International Organization , Volume 74 , Issue 1 , Winter 2020 , pp. 145 - 164
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Altonji, Joseph G., Elder, Todd E., and Taber, Christopher R.. 2005. Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools. Journal of Political Economy 113 (1):151–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Angrist, Joshua D., and Pischke, Jörn-Steffen. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, Robert J., and McCleary, Rachel M.. 2003. Religion and Economic Growth Across Countries. American Sociological Review 68 (5):760–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel. 2015. Estimating Grouped Data Models With a Binary Dependent Variable and Fixed Effects: What Are the Issues? Working Paper. New York University.Google Scholar
Bellows, John, and Miguel, Edward. 2009. War and Local Collective Action in Sierra Leone. Journal of Public Economics 93 (11):1144–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brents, Barbara G., and Mshigeni, Deo S.. 2004. Terrorism in Context: Race, Religion, Party and Violent Conflict in Zanzibar. The American Sociologist 35 (2):60–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brumberg, Daniel. 2002. The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy. Journal of Democracy 13 (4):56–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bubeck, Johannes, and Marinov, Nikolay. 2017. Process or Candidate: The International Community and the Demand for Electoral Integrity. American Political Science Review 111 (3):535–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bush, Sarah. 2015. The Taming of Democracy Assistance. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bush, Sarah Sunn, and Prather, Lauren. 2017a. The Promise and Limits of Election Observers in Building Election Credibility. The Journal of Politics 79 (3):921–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bush, Sarah Sunn, and Prather, Lauren. 2017b. Who's There? Election Observer Identity and the Local Credibility of Elections. International Organization 72 (3):659–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cammett, Melani, and Luong, Pauline Jones. 2014. Is There an Islamist Political Advantage? Annual Review of Political Science 17:187–206.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Carothers, Thomas. 1997. The Observers Observed. Journal of Democracy 8 (3):17–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corstange, Daniel, and Marinov, Nikolay. 2012. Taking Sides in Other People's Elections: The Polarizing Effect of Foreign Intervention. American Journal of Political Science 56 (3):655–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cruz, Cesi, Keefer, Philip, and Scartascini, Carlos. 2016. Database of Political Institutions Codebook, 2015 Update. Inter-American Development Bank. Available at <http://www.iadb.org/en/research-and-data/publication-details,3169.html?pub_id=IDB-DB-121>. Accessed 26 July 2017..+Accessed+26+July+2017.>Google Scholar
Gaddis, John Lewis. 2006. The Cold War: A New History. Penguin.Google Scholar
Gerges, Fawaz A. 1999. America and Political Islam: Clash of Cultures or Clash of Interests? Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerges, Fawaz A. 2013. The Islamist Moment: From Islamic State to Civil Islam? Political Science Quarterly 128 (3):389–426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamid, Shadi. 2011. Arab Islamist Parties: Losing on Purpose? Journal of Democracy 22 (1):68–80.Google Scholar
Haynes, Jeffrey. 2005. Islamic Militancy in East Africa. Third World Quarterly 26 (8):1321–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heckman, James J. 1979. Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error. Econometrica 47 (1):153–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Human Rights Watch. 2002. “The Bullets Were Raining”: The January 2001 Attack on Peaceful Demonstrators in Zanzibar. Technical Report.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1996. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Hyde, Susan D. 2011. Catch Us If You Can: Election Monitoring and International Norm Diffusion. American Journal of Political Science 55 (2):356–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hyde, Susan D., and Marinov, Nicolay. 2012. Which Elections Can Be Lost? Political Analysis 20 (2):191–201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hyde, Susan D., and Marinov, Nikolay. 2014. Information and Self-Enforcing Democracy: The Role of International Election Observation. International Organization 68 (2):329–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jamal, Amaney A. 2012. Of Empires and Citizens: Pro-American Democracy or No Democracy At All. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jones, Seth G., and Libicki, Martin C.. 2008. How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering Al Qa'ida. RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis N. 2000. Commitment Problems in Emerging Democracies: The Case of Religious Parties. Comparative Politics 32 (4):379–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelley, Judith G. 2009. D-minus Elections: The Politics and Norms of International Election Observation. International Organization 63 (4):765–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelley, Judith G. 2010. Election Observers and Their Biases. Journal of Democracy 21 (3):158–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelley, Judith G. 2012. Monitoring Democracy: When International Election Observation Works, and Why It Often Fails. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kersting, Erasmus K., and Kilby, Christopher. 2016. With a Little Help from My Friends: Global Electioneering and World Bank Lending. Journal of Development Economics 121:153–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kew, Darren. 1999. Democrazy—Dem Go Craze, O: Monitoring the 1999 Nigerian Elections. African Issues 27 (1):29–33.Google Scholar
Kurzman, Charles, and Naqvi, Ijlal. 2010. Do Muslims Vote Islamic? Journal of Democracy 21 (2):50–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kydd, Andrew, and Walter, Barbara F.. 2002. Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence. International Organization 56 (2):263–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Way, Lucan. 2005. International Linkage and Democratization. Journal of Democracy 16 (3):20–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., Jaggers, Keith, and Gurr, Ted Robert. 2002. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2002. Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland College Park.Google Scholar
Masoud, Tarek. 2008. Islamist Parties and Democracy: Are They Democrats? Does It Matter? Journal of Democracy 19 (3):19–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Masoud, Tarek. 2013. The Political Economy of Islam and Politics. In The Oxford Handbook of Islam and Politics, edited by Esposito, John L. and Shahin, Emad El-Din, 89–111. Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
McIntire, Mike, and Gettleman, Jeffrey. 2009. A Chaotic Kenya Vote and a Secret US Exit Poll. New York Times, 30 January.Google Scholar
Mueller, John E. 2006. Overblown: How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats and Why We Believe Them. Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Ploch, Lauren. 2010. Countering Terrorism in East Africa: The US Response. Congressional Research Service.Google Scholar
RAND. 2015. RAND Database of Worldwide Terrorism Incidents. Available at <http://www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/terrorism-incidents.html>. Accessed 29 May 2015..+Accessed+29+May+2015.>Google Scholar
Robinson, William I. 1996. Promoting Polyarchy: Globalization, US Intervention, and Hegemony. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ross, Michael L. 2013. Oil and Gas Data, 1932–2011. Harvard Dataverse Network.Google Scholar
Smith, Tony. 2012. America's Mission: The United States and the Worldwide Struggle for Democracy. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sunstein, Cass R., and Zeckhauser, Richard. 2011. Overreaction to Fearsome Risks. Environmental and Resource Economics 48 (3):435–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walt, Stephen M. 2001. Beyond Bin Laden: Reshaping US Foreign Policy. International Security 26 (3):56–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wegner, Eva. 2011. Islamist Opposition in Authoritarian Regimes: The Party of Justice and Development in Morocco. Syracuse University Press.Google Scholar
Weinberg, Leonard, Pedahzur, Ami, and Perliger, Arie. 2008. Political Parties and Terrorist Groups, 2nd ed. Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wickham, Carrie Rosefsky. 2002. Mobilizing Islam: Religion, Activism and Political Change in Egypt. Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Bank, World. 2017. World Development Indicators. World Bank Publications. Available at <http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators>. Accessed on 26 July 2017..+Accessed+on+26+July+2017.>Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Kavakli and Kuhn supplementary material

Kavakli and Kuhn supplementary material 1

Download Kavakli and Kuhn supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 719.9 KB
Supplementary material: File

Kavakli and Kuhn supplementary material

Kavakli and Kuhn supplementary material 2

Download Kavakli and Kuhn supplementary material(File)
File 9.3 MB