Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dk4vv Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T13:51:58.583Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Autocratic Consent to International Law: The Case of the International Criminal Court's Jurisdiction, 1998–2017

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 March 2020

Get access

Abstract

This article contributes to an understanding of why autocrats have accepted the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Leveraging their ability to obstruct their own prosecution, autocrats have traded off the risk of unwanted prosecutions against the deterrent threat that prosecutions pose to political rivals and patrons of their enemies conspiring to oust them. The risk of unwanted prosecutions and the court's deterrent threat both arise because ICC prosecutions credibly communicate guilt for international crimes to capital-disbursing democracies, which may, insofar as possible, use leader-specific economic statecraft to prevent the administration of foreign states by those whom the court signals are guilty of international crimes. Analysis using fixed effects and matching shows that a greater reliance on capital publicly financed by democracies increased the probability that a state accepted the court's jurisdiction only when it was an autocracy (1998–2017). ICC jurisdiction also lengthened the tenure of autocrats and reduced the severity of civil conflict in autocracies.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation, 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abbott, Kenneth W. 1999. International Relations Theory, International Law, and the Regime Governing Atrocities in Internal Conflicts. American Journal of International Law 93 (2):361–79.10.2307/2997995CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ahmed, Faisal Z. 2012. The Perils of Unearned Foreign Income: Aid, Remittances, and Government Survival. American Political Science Review 106 (1):146–65.10.1017/S0003055411000475CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alter, Karen J. 2014. The New Terrain of International Law: Courts, Politics, Rights. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Bass, Gary J. 2000. Stay the Hand of Vengeance: The Politics of War Crimes Tribunals. Princeton University Press.10.1515/9781400851713CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blattman, Christopher, and Miguel, Edward. 2010. Civil War. Journal of Economic Literature 48 (1):357.10.1257/jel.48.1.3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boister, Neil, and Cryer, Robert. 2008. The Tokyo International Military Tribunal: A Reappraisal. Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199278527.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bolton, John R. 2001. The Risks and the Weaknesses of the International Criminal Court from America's Perspective. Law and Contemporary Problems 64 (1):167–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Jones, Bradford S.. 2004. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511790874CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Zorn, Christopher J.W.. 2001. Duration Models and Proportional Hazards in Political Science. America Journal of Political Science 45 (4):972–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bridge, John W. 1964. The Case for an International Court of Criminal Justice and the Formulation of International Criminal Law. International and Comparative Law Quarterly 13 (4):1255–81.10.1093/iclqaj/13.4.1255CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Smith, Alastair. 2010. Leader Survival, Revolutions and the Nature of Government Finance. American Journal of Political Science 54 (4):936–50.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00463.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burke, Paul J. 2012. Economic Growth and Political Survival. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 12 (1):1935–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Byers, Michael. 2002. Abuse of Rights: An Old Principle, a New Age. McGill Law Journal 47:389431.Google Scholar
Chapman, Terrence, and Chaudoin, Stephen. 2012. Ratification Patterns of the International Criminal Court. International Studies Quarterly 57 (2):400409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chiozza, Giacomo, and Goemans, H. E. 2011. Leaders and International Conflict. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
CIA. 2019a. Chiefs of State and Cabinet Members of Foreign Governments. <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/world-leaders-1/index.html>. Accessed 5 January 2019..+Accessed+5+January+2019.>Google Scholar
CIA. 2019b. World Factbook. <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/>. Accessed 5 January 2019..+Accessed+5+January+2019.>Google Scholar
Cohen, Dara Kay, and Green, Amelia Hoover. 2012. Dueling Incentives: Sexual Violence in Liberia and the Politics of Human Rights Advocacy. Journal of Peace Research 49 (3):445–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Combs, Nancy A. 2010. Fact-Finding Without Facts: The Uncertain Evidentiary Foundations of International Criminal Convictions. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Correlates of War Project. 2019. COW War Data v.4.0. <http://www.correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/COW-war>. Accessed 30 March2019..+Accessed+30+March2019.>Google Scholar
Dahl, Robert Alan. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Danner, Allison M., and Martinez, Jenny S.. 2005. Guilty Associations: Joint Criminal Enterprise, Command Responsibility and the Development of International Criminal Law. California Law Review 93 (1):75169.Google Scholar
Deitelhoff, Nicole. 2009. The Discursive Process of Legalization: Charting Islands of Persuasion in the ICC Case. International Organization 63 (1):3365.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Republic of China. 2018. Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of China, 2017. <https://eng.dgbas.gov.tw/public/data/dgbas03/bs2/yearbook_eng/Yearbook2017.pdf>. Accessed 30 March2019..+Accessed+30+March2019.>Google Scholar
Dunning, Thad. 2004. Conditioning the Effects of Aid: Cold War Politics, Donor Credibility, and Democracy in Africa. International Organization 58 (2):409–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Easterly, William, and Pfutze, Tobias. 2008. Where Does the Money Go? Best and Worst Practices in Foreign Aid. Journal of Economic Perspectives 22 (2):2952.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franck, Thomas M. 1988. Legitimacy in the International System. American Journal of International Law 82 (4):705–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gehlbach, Scott, Sonin, Konstantin, and Svolik, Milan W.. 2016. Formal Models of Nondemocratic Politics. Annual Review of Political Science 19:565–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gibney, Mark, Cornett, Linda, and Wood, Reed. 2010. Political Terror Scale 1976–2008. <http://www.politicalterrorscale.org/>. Accessed 1 October 2011..+Accessed+1+October+2011.>Google Scholar
Gilligan, Michael. 2006. Is Enforcement Necessary for Effectiveness? A Model of the International Criminal Regime. International Organization 60 (4):935–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian S., and Salehyan, Idean. 2006. Refugees and the Spread of Civil War. International Organization 60 (2):335–66.Google Scholar
Goemans, Hein E., Gleditsch, Kristian S., and Chiozza, Giacomo. 2009. Introducing Archigos: A Data Set of Political Leaders. Journal of Peace Research 46 (2):269–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldsmith, Jack. 2003. The Self-Defeating International Criminal Court. University of Chicago Law Review 70 (1):89104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodliffe, Jay, and Hawkins, Darren. 2009. A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Rome: Explaining International Criminal Court Negotiations. Journal of Politics 71 (3):977–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodliffe, Jay, Hawkins, Darren, Horne, Christine, and Nielson, Daniel L.. 2012. Dependence Networks and the International Criminal Court. International Studies Quarterly 56 (1):131–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hafner-Burton, Emilie M., and Tsutsui, Kiyoteru. 2005. Human Rights in a Globalizing World: The Paradox of Empty Promises. American Journal of Sociology 110 (5):1373–411.10.1086/428442CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hencken Ritter, Emily, and Wolford, Scott. 2012. Bargaining and the Effectiveness of International Criminal Regimes. Journal of Theoretical Politics 24 (2):149–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, Daniel W. 2010. Estimating the Effects of Human Rights Treaties on State Behavior. Journal of Politics 72 (4):1161–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hollyer, James R., and Rosendorff, B. Peter. 2011. Why Do Authoritarian Regimes Sign the Convention Against Torture? Signaling, Domestic Politics and Non-Compliance. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 6 (3–4):275327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Honaker, James, and King, Gary. 2010. What to Do About Missing Values in Time Series Cross-Section Data. American Journal of Political Science 54 (3):561–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iacus, Stefano M., King, Gary, and Porro, Giuseppe. 2011. Causal Inference Without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching. Political Analysis 20 (1):124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kassab, Seema. 2018. Justice in Syria: Individual Criminal Liability for Highest Officials in the Assad Regime. Michigan Journal of International Law 39 (2):283300.Google Scholar
Kelley, Judith. 2007. Who Keeps International Commitments and Why? The International Criminal Court and Bilateral Nonsurrender Agreements. American Political Science Review 101 (3):573–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kosmidis, Ioannis, and Firth, David. 2009. Bias Reduction in Exponential Family Nonlinear Models. Biometrika 96 (4):793804.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lachezar, Yanev. 2018. On Common Plans and Excess Crimes: Fragmenting the Notion of Co-Perpetration in International Criminal Law. Leiden Journal of International Law 31 (3):693718.Google Scholar
Lacina, Bethany. 2006. Explaining the Severity of Civil Wars. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (2):176289.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lührmann, Anna, Tannenberg, Marcus, and Lindberg, Staffan I.. 2018. Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes. Politics and Governance 6 (1):118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lumsdaine, David H. 1993. Moral Vision in International Politics: The Foreign Aid Regime, 1949–1989. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz, and Kricheli, Ruth. 2010. Political Order and One-Party Rule. Annual Review of Political Science 13:123–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGillivray, Fiona, and Smith, Alastair. 2008. Punishing the Prince: A Theory of Interstate Relations, Political Institutions, and Leader Change. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miguel, Edward, Satyanath, Shankar, and Sergenti, Ernest. 2004. Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach. Journal of Political Economy 112 (4):735–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milner, Helen, and Tingley, Dustin. 2010. The Political Economy of US Foreign Aid: American Legislators and the Domestic Politics of Aid. Economics & Politics 22 (2):200–32.Google Scholar
Milner, Helen, and Tingley, Dustin. 2011. Who Supports Global Economic Engagement? The Sources of Preferences in American Foreign Economic Policy. International Organization 65 (1):3768.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, and Powell, Emilia J.. 2011. Domestic Law Goes Global: Legal Traditions and International Courts. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moe, Terry M. 2005. Power and Political Institutions. Perspectives on Politics 3 (2):215–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montalvo, Jose G., and Reynal-Querol, Marta. 2005. Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars. American Economic Review 95 (3):796816.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrison, Kevin. 2009. Oil, Nontax Revenue, and the Redistributional Foundations of Regime Stability. International Organization 63 (1):107–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D. 2007. When Do States Follow the Laws of War? American Political Science Review 101 (3):559–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
National Statistics, Republic of China (Taiwan). 2019. National Accounts. <https://eng.stat.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=37408&CtNode=5347&mp=5>. Accessed 30 March2019..+Accessed+30+March2019.>Google Scholar
Nielsen, Richard A., and Simmons, Beth. 2013. Rewarding Human Rights? Selective Aid Sanctions Against Repressive States. International Studies Quarterly 57 (4):791803.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nunn, Nathan, and Puga, Diego. 2012. Ruggedness: The Blessing of Bad Geography in Africa. Review of Economics and Statistics 94 (1):2036.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
OECD. 2018. OECD.Stat Table DAC2a. <https://stats.oecd.org>. Accessed 15 December 2018..+Accessed+15+December+2018.>Google Scholar
Pelc, Krzysztof J. 2016. Making and Bending International Rules: The Design of Exceptions and Escape Clauses in Trade Law. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pereira, Anthony W. 2005. Political (In)justice: Authoritarianism and the Rule of Law in Brazil, Chile, and Argentina. University of Pittsburgh Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peskin, Victor. 2008. International Justice in Rwanda and the Balkans: Virtual Trials and the Struggle for State Cooperation. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pettersson, Therése, and Eck, Kristine. 2018. Organized Violence, 1989–2017. Journal of Peace Research 55 (4):535–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posner, Eric A. 2009. The Perils of Global Legalism. University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prorok, Alyssa K. 2016. The (In)compatibility of Peace and Justice? The International Criminal Court and Civil Conflict Termination. International Organization 71 (2):213–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Regan, Patrick M., and Norton, Daniel. 2005. Greed, Grievance, and Mobilization: The Onset of Protest, Rebellion, and Civil War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (3):118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robinson, Darryl. 2011. The Controversy over Territorial State Referrals and Reflections on ICL Discourse. Journal of International Criminal Justice 9 (2):355–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ross, Michael. 2015. What Have We Learned About the Resource Curse? Annual Review of Political Science 18:239–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sadat, Leila Nadya. 2013. Understanding the Complexities of International Criminal Tribunal Jurisdiction. In Routledge Handbook of International Criminal Law, edited by Schabas, William A. and Bernaz, Nadia, 197210. Routledge.Google Scholar
Sadat, Leila Nadya, and Jolly, Jarrod M.. 2014. Seven Canons of ICC Treaty Interpretation: Making Sense of Article 25's Rorschach Blot. Leiden Journal of International Law 27 (3):755–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schabas, William A. 2016. The International Criminal Court: A Commentary on the Rome Statute. 2nd ed.Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth A. 2009. Mobilizing for Rights: International Law in Domestic Politics. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simmons, Beth A., and Danner, Allison M.. 2010. Credible Commitments and the International Criminal Court. International Organization 64 (2):225–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simmons, Beth A., and Jo, Hyeran. 2016. Can the International Criminal Court Deter Atrocity? International Organization 70 (3):443–75.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair, and Vreeland, James R.. 2006. The Survival of Political Leaders and IMF Programs. In Globalization and the Nation State: The Impact of the IMF and the World Bank, edited by Ranis, Gustav, Vreeland, James R., and Kosack, Stephen, 263–89. Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sobek, David. 2010. Masters of Their Domains: The Role of State Capacity in Civil Wars. Journal of Peace Research 47 (3):267–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sriram, Chandra Lekha, and Brown, Stephen. 2012. Kenya in the Shadow of the ICC: Complementarity, Gravity and Impact. International Criminal Law Review 12 (2):219–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stone, Randall W. 2008. The Scope of IMF Conditionality. International Organization 62 (4):589620.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stover, Eric, Haglund, William D., and Margaret, Samuels. 2003. Exhumation of Mass Graves in Iraq: Considerations for Forensic Investigations, Humanitarian Needs, and the Demands of Justice. Journal of the American Medical Association 290 (5):663–66.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Svolik, Milan W. 2012. The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thies, Cameron G. 2010. Of Rulers, Rebels, and Revenue: State Capacity, Civil War Onset, and Primary Commodities. Journal of Peace Research 47 (3):321–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
UCDP and Centre for the Study of Civil Wars. 2013. UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset v.4, 1946–2012. <https://www.prio.org/Data/Armed-Conflict/UCDP-PRIO/>. Accessed 12 April 2014..+Accessed+12+April+2014.>Google Scholar
Voeten, Erik. 2008. The Impartiality of International Judges: Evidence from the European Court of Human Rights. American Political Science Review 102 (4):417–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wirth, Steffen. 2012. Co-Perpetration in the Lubanga Trial Judgment. Journal of International Criminal Justice 10 (4):971–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Bank. 2019. World Development Indicators. <http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators>. Accessed 31 January 2019..+Accessed+31+January+2019.>Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Hashimoto supplementary material

Hashimoto supplementary material 1

Download Hashimoto supplementary material(File)
File 80.3 KB
Supplementary material: File

Hashimoto supplementary material

Hashimoto supplementary material 2

Download Hashimoto supplementary material(File)
File 375 Bytes
Supplementary material: File

Hashimoto supplementary material

Hashimoto supplementary material 3

Download Hashimoto supplementary material(File)
File 4 KB
Supplementary material: PDF

Hashimoto supplementary material

Hashimoto supplementary material 4

Download Hashimoto supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 965.3 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Hashimoto Dataset

Link