Hostname: page-component-6bf8c574d5-h6jzd Total loading time: 0.001 Render date: 2025-02-16T16:48:13.102Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Audience Beliefs and International Organization Legitimacy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 October 2009

Terrence L. Chapman
Terrence L. Chapman
Affiliation:
Department of Government, University of Texas at Austin. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

Recent work suggests that multilateral security institutions, such as the UN Security Council, can influence foreign policy through public opinion. According to this view, authorization can increase public support for foreign policy, freeing domestic constraints. Governments that feel constrained by public opinion may thus alter their foreign policies to garner external authorization. These claims challenge traditional realist views about the role of international organizations in security affairs, which tend to focus on direct enforcement mechanisms and neglect indirect channels of influence. To examine these claims, this article investigates the first link in this causal chain—the effect of institutional statements on public opinion. Strategic information arguments, as opposed to arguments about the symbolic legitimacy of specific organizations or the procedural importance of consultation, posit that the effect of institutional statements on public opinion is conditional on public perceptions of member states' interests. This article tests this conditional relationship in the context of changes in presidential approval surrounding military disputes, using a measure of preference distance between the United States and veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council. Findings indicate that short-term changes in presidential approval surrounding the onset of military disputes in the United States between 1946 and 2001 have been significantly larger when accompanied by a positive resolution for a Security Council that is more distant in terms of foreign policy preferences. The article also discusses polling data during the 1990s and 2000s that support the strategic information perspective.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 63 , Issue 4 , October 2009 , pp. 733 - 764
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Aldrich, John H., Gelpi, Christopher, Feaver, Peter, Reifler, Jason, and Sharp, Kristin Thompson. 2006. Foreign Policy and the Electoral Connection. Annual Review of Political Science 9:477–502.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, John Herbert, Sullivan, John L., and Borgida, Euguene. 1989. Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting: Do Presidential Candidates ‘Waltz Before a Blind Audience?’ American Political Science Review 83 (1):123–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amemiya, Takeshi. 1973. Regression Analysis When the Dependent Variable Is Truncated Normal. Econometrica 41 (6):997–1016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baker, William D., and Oneal, John R.. 2001. Patriotism or Opinion Leadership: The Nature and Origins of the ‘Rally 'Round the Flag’ Effect. Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (5):661–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barnett, Michael N., and Finnemore, Martha. 1999. The Politics, Power, and Pathologies of International Organizations. International Organization 53 (4):699–732.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. 2002. The Constituent Foundations of the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon. International Studies Quarterly 46 (2):263–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. 2004. Going Private: Public Opinion, Presidential Rhetoric, and the Domestic Politics of Audience Costs in U.S. Foreign Policy Crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5):603–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A., and Potter, Phillip B. K.. 2008. The Relationship Between Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy: Toward a Theoretical Synthesis. Annual Review of Political Science 11:39–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brambor, Thomas, Clark, William Roberts, and Golder, Matt. 2006. Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis 14 (1):63–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braumoeller, Bear F. 2004. Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms. International Organization 58 (4):807–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brecher, Michael, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, and Moser, Sheila. 1988. Crises in the Twentieth Century. Vol. 1, Handbook of International Crises. New York: Pergamon.Google Scholar
Brody, Richard A. 1991. Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brooks, Stephen G., and Wohlforth, William C.. 2005. International Relations Theory and the Case against Unilateralism. Perspective on Politics 3 (3):509–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph, and Smith, Alastair. 1999. An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace. American Political Science Review 93 (4):791–807.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph, and Smith, Alastair. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bush, George H. W., and Scowcroft, Brent. 1998. A World Transformed. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stoke, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Carr, Edward Hallett. 1964. The Twenty Years' Crisis: 1919–1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations. London: MacMillan.Google Scholar
Chapman, Terrence L. 2007. International Security Institutions, Domestic Politics, and Institutional Legitimacy. Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (1):134–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chapman, Terrence, and Reiter, Dan. 2004. The United Nations Security Council and the Rally 'Round the Flag Effect. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (6):886–909.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chapman, Terrence L., and Wolford, Scott. 2008. When Can IOs Help Prevent War? Unpublished manuscript. The University of Texas at Austin and the University of Colorado at Boulder.Google Scholar
Colaresi, Michael. 2007. The Benefit of Doubt: Testing an Informational Theory of the Rally Effect. International Organization 61 (1):93–143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coleman, Katharina P. 2007. International Organizations and Peace Enforcement: The Politics of International Legitimacy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dassel, Kurt, and Reinhardt, Eric. 1999. Domestic Strife and the Initiation of Violence at Home and Abroad. American Journal of Political Science 43 (1):56–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, George W., Rocke, David M., and Barsoom, Peter N.. 1996. Is the Good News About Compliance Good News About Cooperation? International Organization 50 (3):379–406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drezner, Daniel W. 2003. Locating the Proper Authorities: The Interaction of Domestic and International Institutions. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Eichenberg, Richard. 2005. Victory Has Many Friends: U.S. Public Opinion and the Use of Military Force, 1981–2005. International Security 30 (1):140–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fang, Songying. 2008. The Informational Role of International Institutions and Domestic Politics. American Journal of Political Science 52 (2):304–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franck, Thomas M. 1990. The Power of Legitimacy Among Nations. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik. 1998. Kant We All Just Get Along? Opportunity, Willingness, and the Origins of the Democratic Peace. American Journal of Political Science 42 (1):1–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik, and Jo, Dong-Joon. 1998. United Nations General Assembly Voting, 1946–1996. Version 3.0. Available at ⟨http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke⟩. Accessed 2 July 2009.Google Scholar
Gilligan, Thomas W., and Krehbiel, Keith. 1988. Asymmetric Information and Legislative Rules with a Heterogeneous Committee. American Journal of Political Science 33 (2):459–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilligan, Thomas W., and Krehbiel, Keith. 1989. Organization of Informative Committees by a Rational Legislature. American Journal of Political Science 34 (2):531–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glennon, Michael J. 2001. Limits of Law, Prerogatives of Power: Interventionism after Kosovo. New York: Palgrave MacMillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glennon, Michael J. 2003. Why the Security Council Failed. Foreign Affairs 82 (3):16–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gochman, Charles S., and Maoz, Zeev. 1984. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1976: Procedures, Patterns and Insights. Journal of Conflict Resolution 28 (4):585–615.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gochman, Charles S., and Maoz, Zeev. 2003. Why the Security Council Failed. Foreign Affairs 82 (3):16–35.Google Scholar
Grant, Ruth W., and Keohane, Robert O.. 2005. Accountability and Abuses of Power in World Politics. American Political Science Review 99 (1):29–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grieco, Joseph. 2003. Let's Get a Second Opinion: Allies, the UN, and U.S. Public Support for War. Unpublished manuscript, Duke University, Durham, N.C.Google Scholar
Holsti, Ole R. 1996. Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Hurd, Ian. 1999. Legitimacy and Authority in International Politics. International Organization 53 (2):397–408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hurd, Ian. 2002. Legitimacy, Power, and the Symbolic Life of the UN Security Council. Global Governance 8 (8):35–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hurd, Ian. 2007. After Anarchy: Legitimacy and Power in the United Nations Security Council. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Ikenberry, G. John. 2001. After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
James, Patrick, and Rioux, Jean Sebastien. 1998. International Crises and Linkage Politics: The Experiences of the United States, 1953–1994. Political Research Quarterly 51 (3):781–813.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, Daniel M., Bremer, Stuart A., and Singer, J. David. 1996. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (2):163–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karnow, Stanley. 1983. Vietnam: A History. New York: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Kull, Steven, and Destler, I. M.. 1999. Misreading the Public: The Myth of a New Isolationism. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Kydd, Andrew. 2003. Which Side Are You On? Bias, Credibility, and Mediation. American Journal of Political Science 47 (4):597–611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lai, Brian, and Reiter, Dan. 2005. Rally 'Round the Union Jack? Public Opinion and the Use of Force in the United Kingdom, 1948–2001. International Studies Quarterly 49 (2):255–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, John. 1977. Rallying Around the Flag: Foreign Policy Events and Presidential Popularity. Presidential Studies Quarterly 7:252–56.Google Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, and Davis, David R.. 1997. Domestic Political Vulnerability and International Disputes. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (6):814–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, Jack. 1989. The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique. In Handbook of War Studies, edited by Midlarsky, Manus I., 259–88. London: Unwin-Hyman.Google Scholar
Lian, Bradley, and Oneal, John R.. 1993. Presidents, the Use of Military Force, and Public Opinion. Journal of Conflict Resolution 37 (2):277–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B. 1983. Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity. American Journal of Political Science 27 (2):165–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malone, David M. 2004. The UN Security Council: From the Cold War to the 21st Century. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., Milner, Helen V., and Rosendorff, B. Peter. 2002. Why Democracies Cooperate More: Electoral Control and International Trade Agreements. International Organization 56 (3):477–513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marfleet, B. Gregory, and Miller, Colleen. 2005. Failure After 1441: Bush and Chirac in the UN Security Council. Foreign Policy Analysis 1 (3):333–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 1995. The False Promise of International Institutions. International Security 19 (3):5–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Campbell, Sally Howard. 1991. Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War: So Why Kant Democracies Fight? Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (2):187–211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mueller, John E. 1970. Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review 64 (1):18–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mueller, John E. 1973. War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Mueller, John E. 1994. Policy and Opinion in the Gulf War. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Oneal, John R., Lian, Brad, and Joyner, James Jr. 1996. Are the American People ‘Pretty Prudent’? Public Responses to U.S. Uses of Force, 1950–1988. International Studies Quarterly 40 (2):261–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., and Shapiro, Robert Y.. 1992. The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parker, Suzanne L. 1995. Toward an Understanding of ‘Rally’ Effects: Public Opinion in the Persian Gulf War. Public Opinion Quarterly 59 (4):526–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan C.. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richards, Diana, Morgan, T. Clifton, Wilson, Rick K., Schwebach, Valerie L., and Young, Garry D.. 1993. Good Times, Bad Times, and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Tale of Some Not-So-Free Agents. Journal of Conflict Resolution 37 (3):504–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roberts, Adam. 2004. The Use of Force. In The UN Security Council: From the Cold War to the 21st Century, edited by Malone, David M., 133–52. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1999. Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War. International Organization 52 (2):233–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sigelman, Lee, and Conover, Pamela Johnston. 1981. The Dynamics of Presidential Support during International Conflict Situations: The Iranian Hostage Crisis. Political Behavior 3 (4):303–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S., and Ritter, Jeffrey M.. 1999. Tau-b or Not Tau-b: Measuring the Similarity of Foreign Policy Positions. International Studies Quarterly 43 (1):115–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stone, Randall W. 2004. The Political Economy of IMF Lending in Africa. American Political Science Review 98 (4):577–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Suchman, Mark C. 1995. Managing Legitimacy: Strategic and Institutional Approaches. Academy of Management Review 20 (3):571–610.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thacker, Strom Cronan. 1999. The High Politics of IMF Lending. World Politics 52 (1):38–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thompson, Alexander. 2006. Coercion through IOs: The Security Council and the Logic of Information Transmission. International Organization 60 (1):1–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tobin, James. 1958. Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables. Econometrica 26 (1):24–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, Michael. 2007. Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach. International Organization 61 (4):821–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tyler, Tom R. 2006. Psychological Perspectives on Legitimacy and Legitimation. Annual Review of Psychology 57:375–400.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Voeten, Erik. 2000. Clashes in the Assembly. International Organization 54 (2):185–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Voeten, Erik. 2004. Resisting the Lonely Superpower: Responses of States in the United Nations to U.S. Dominance. Journal of Politics 66 (3):729–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Voeten, Erik. 2005. The Political Origins of the UN Security Council's Ability to Legitimize the Use of Force. International Organization 59 (3):527–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vreeland, James Raymond. 2003. The IMF and Economic Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wainstock, Dennis D. 1999. Truman, MacArthur, and the Korean War. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Wallensteen, Peter, and Johanssen, Patrik. 2003. Security Council Decisions in Perspective. In The UN Security Council: From the Cold War to the 21st Century, edited by Malone, David M., 17–33. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Woodward, Bob. 2004. Plan of Attack. New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Zaller, John R. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar