Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2brh9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T04:10:12.676Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Refugees and the Spread of Civil War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 April 2006

Idean Salehyan  and
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
Idean Salehyan
Affiliation:
University of California, San Diego, [email protected]
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
Affiliation:
Department of Government at the University of Essex, [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

Certain regions of the world experience more conflict than others. Previous analyses have shown that a civil war in one country significantly increases the likelihood that neighboring states will experience conflict. This finding, however, still remains largely unexplained. We argue that population movements are an important mechanism by which conflict spreads across regions. Refugee flows are not only the consequence of political turmoil—the presence of refugees and displaced populations can also increase the risk of subsequent conflict in host and origin countries. Refugees expand rebel social networks and constitute a negative externality of civil war. Although the vast majority of refugees never directly engage in violence, refugee flows may facilitate the transnational spread of arms, combatants, and ideologies conducive to conflict; they alter the ethnic composition of the state; and they can exacerbate economic competition. We conduct an empirical analysis of the link between refugees and civil conflict since the mid-twentieth century, and we find that the presence of refugees from neighboring countries leads to an increased probability of violence, suggesting that refugees are one important source of conflict diffusion.We would like to thank the participants in the “Resources, Governance Structures, and Civil War” Workshop at the European Consortium for Political Research in Uppsala, Sweden, 13–18 April 2004, for early feedback on previous versions of this article. We would also like to thank Anis Bajrektarevic, Lars-Erik Cederman, David Cunningham, Kristian Berg Harpviken, Béla Hovy, Sarah Lischer, Monty Marshall, Erik Melander, Will H. Moore, Magnus Öberg, and Michael Ward for providing us with data and helpful comments, as well as Jan Ketil Rød for permission to reproduce the map from the program ViewConflicts in Figure 1. Finally, we are grateful for the comments and suggestions of the editors of International Organization and the anonymous reviewers. This research was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (SES-0351670).

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 60 , Issue 2 , April 2006 , pp. 335 - 366
Copyright
© 2006 The IO Foundation and Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Anselin, Luc. 1988. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer.
Arquilla, John, and David F. Ronfeldt. 2001. Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy. Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand.
Azam, Jean-Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. 2002. Violence Against Civilians in Civil Wars: Looting or Terror? Journal of Peace Research 39 (4):461–85.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, Jonathan N. Katz, and Richard M. Tucker. 1998. Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. American Journal of Political Science 42 (4):1260–88.Google Scholar
Beissinger, Mark R. 2002. Nationalist Mobilization and the Collapse of the Soviet State. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Besag, Julian E. 1974. Spatial Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of Lattice Systems (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Methodological 36 (2):192–236.Google Scholar
Borjas, George. 1989. Economic Theory and International Migration. International Migration Review 23 (3):457–85.Google Scholar
Brown, Michael. 1996. The Causes and Regional Dimensions of Internal Conflict. In The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, edited by Michael Brown, 571–602. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Buhaug, Halvard, and Scott Gates. 2002. The Geography of Civil War. Journal of Peace Research 39 (4):417–33.Google Scholar
Centinyan, Rupen. 2002. Ethnic Bargaining in the Shadow of Third-Party Intervention. International Organization 56 (3):645–77.Google Scholar
Cleveland, William. 2000. A History of the Modern Middle East. 2d ed. Boulder, Colo.: Westview.
Collier, Paul, Lani Elliott, Håvard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Reynal-Querol, and Nicholas Sambanis. 2003. Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy. New York: Oxford University Press/Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. 2004. Greed and Grievance in Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers—New Series 56 (4):563–95.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian A. 2004. Minorities At Risk Dataset Users Manual. Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland. Available at 〈http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/mar/margene/mar-codebook_040903.pdf〉. Accessed 22 December 2005.
Davenport, Christian A., Will H. Moore, and Steven C. Poe. 2003. Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Threat and Refugee Movements, 1964–1989. International Interactions 29 (1):27–55.Google Scholar
Davis, David R., and Will H. Moore. 1997. Ethnicity Matters: Transnational Ethnic Alliances and Foreign Policy Behavior. International Studies Quarterly 41 (1):171–84.Google Scholar
Della Porta, Donatella, and Sidney G. Tarrow, eds. 2005. Transnational Protest and Global Activism. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield.
Doyle, Michael W., and Nicholas Sambanis. 2000. International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis. American Political Science Review 94 (4):779–801.Google Scholar
Eriksson, Mikael, Peter Wallensteen, and Margareta Sollenberg. 2003. Armed Conflict, 1989–2002. Journal of Peace Research 40 (5):593–607.Google Scholar
Fearon, James, and David Laitin. 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review 97 (1):75–90.Google Scholar
Ganguly, Sumit. 1996. Conflict and Crisis in South and Southwest Asia. In The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, edited by Michael Brown, 141–72. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Ghobarah, Hazem, Paul Huth, and Bruce M. Russett. 2003. Civil Wars Kill and Maim People Long after the Shooting Stops. American Political Science Review 97 (2):189–202.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2002. Expanded Trade and GDP Data, 1946–92. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (5):712–24.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2003. Modified Polity 4 Data. Available at 〈http://weber.ucsd.edu/∼kgledits/Polity.html〉. Accessed 22 December 2005.
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2005. Transnational Dimensions of Civil War. Unpublished manuscript, Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego.
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Michael D. Ward. 1999. A Revised List of Independent States Since 1816. International Interactions 25 (4):393–413.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Michael D. Ward. 2001. Measuring Space: A Minimum Distance Database. Journal of Peace Research 38 (6):749–68.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Peter Wallensteen, Mikael Eriksson, Margareta Sollenberg, and Håvard Strand. 2002. Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39 (5):615–37.Google Scholar
Hegre, Håvard, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates, and Nils Petter Gleditsch. 2001. Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992. American Political Science Review 95 (1):33–48.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group. 1999. Macedonia: Towards Destabilization? ICG Report No. 67. Brussels: International Crisis Group.
Jacobsen, Karen. 1996. Factors Influencing the Policy Responses of Host Governments to Mass Refugee Influxes. International Migration Review 30 (3):655–78.Google Scholar
Keck, Margaret E., and Kathryn Sikkink. 1998. Activists Beyond Borders: Advocacy Networks in International Politics. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
Keohane, Robert. 1984. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Keohane, Robert, and Joseph Nye, eds. 1972. Transnational Relations and World Politics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Kim, Julie. 2001. Macedonia: Country Background and Recent Conflict. Congressional Research Service Report. Washington, D.C.: Congressional Report Service, Library of Congress.
Kuran, Timur. 1998. Ethnic Dissimilation and Its International Diffusion. In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, edited by David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, 35–60. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Lake, David A., and Donald Rothchild. 1996. Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict. International Security 21 (2):41–75.Google Scholar
Lake, David A., and Donald Rothchild, eds. 1998. The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Lischer, Sarah. 2005. Dangerous Sanctuaries: Refugee Camps, Civil War, and the Dilemmas of Humanitarian Aid. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
Loescher, Gil. 1993. Beyond Charity: International Cooperation and the Global Refugee Crisis. New York: Oxford University Press.
Marshall, Monty, and Ted Robert Gurr. 2003. Peace and Conflict 2003. College Park, Md.: Center for International Development and Conflict Management.
Martin, Adrian. 2005. Environmental Conflict Between Refugee and Host Communities. Journal of Peace Research 42 (3):329–47.Google Scholar
Moore, Will H., and David R. Davis. 1998. Transnational Ethnic Ties and Foreign Policy. In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, edited by David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, 89–104. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Moore, Will H., and Stephen M. Shellman. 2004. Fear of Persecution: Forced Migration, 1952–1995. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5):723–45.Google Scholar
Muller, Edward N., and Erich Weede. 1990. Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution 34 (4):624–51.Google Scholar
Murdoch, James, and Todd Sandler. 2004. Civil War and Economic Growth: Spatial Dispersion. American Journal of Political Science 48 (1):138–51.Google Scholar
Öberg, Magnus, and Erik Melander. 2003. Time to Go? Duration Dependence in Forced Migration. Unpublished manuscript, Department of Peace and Conflict Resolution, Uppsala University, Sweden.
Okamoto, Dina G., and Rima Wilkes. 2003. Fight or Flight? Understanding Ethnic Group Rebellion and Migration as Alternatives. Unpublished manuscript, Department of Sociology, University of California, Davis.
Petersen, Roger. 2001. Resistance and Rebellion: Lessons from Eastern Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Raftery, Adrian E. 1995. Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research (with Discussion). Sociological Methodology 25:111–95.Google Scholar
Regan, Patrick M. 2000. Civil Wars and Foreign Powers: Intervention in Intrastate Conflict. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Reynal-Querol, Marta. 2002. Ethnicity, Political Systems and Civil Wars. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (1):29–54.Google Scholar
Risse-Kappen, Thomas, ed. 1995. Bringing Transnational Relations Back in: Non-State Actors, Domestic Structures, and International Institutions. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Rosenblum, Marc, and Idean Salehyan. 2004. Norms and Interests in US Asylum Enforcement. Journal of Peace Research 41 (6):677–97.Google Scholar
Rød, Jan Ketil. 2003. ViewConflicts: Software for Visualising Spatiotemporal Data on Armed Conflicts. Paper prepared for presentation at the Joint Sessions of Workshops European Consortium for Political Research, 28 March–2 April, Edinburgh, UK. Data set available at 〈http://www.geomatikk.ntnu.no/viewConflicts/main/〉. Accessed 22 December 2005.
Sadiq, Kamal. 2005. When States Prefer Non-Citizens Over Citizens: Conflict Over Illegal Immigration into Malaysia. International Studies Quarterly 49 (1):101–22.Google Scholar
Saideman, Stephen. 2001. The Ties that Divide: Ethnic Politics, Foreign Policy, and International Conflict. New York: Columbia University Press.
Salehyan, Idean. 2005. Transnational Rebels: Neighboring States as Sanctuary for Rebel Movements. Paper presented at the 2005 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Honolulu, Hawaii, March.
Sambanis, Nicholas. 2002. A Review of Recent Advances and Future Direction in the Literature on Civil War. Defense and Peace Economics 13 (6):215–43.Google Scholar
Schabenberger, Oliver, and Carol A. Gotway. 2005. Statistical Methods for Spatial Data Analysis. Boca Raton, Fla.: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
Schmeidl, Susanne. 1997. Exploring the Causes of Forced Migration: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis, 1971–1990. Social Science Quarterly 78 (2):284–308.Google Scholar
Stedman, Stephen John, and Fred Tanner, eds. 2003. Refugee Manipulation: War, Politics, and the Abuse of Human Suffering. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.
Teitelbaum, Michael. 1984. Immigration, Refugees, and Foreign Policy. International Organization 38 (3):429–50.Google Scholar
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. 2000. The State of the World's Refugees: Fifty Years of Humanitarian Action. New York: Oxford University Press.
United States Committee for Refugees. 1989. World Refugee Survey. New York: U.S. Committee for Refugees.
United States Committee for Refugees. 2002. 2002 Yearbook. New York: U.S. Committee for Refugees.
Vanhanen, Tatu. 1999. Domestic Ethnic Conflict and Ethnic Nepotism: A Comparative Analysis. Journal of Peace Research 36 (1):55–74.Google Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 1997. The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement. International Organization 51 (3):335–64.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.
Ward, Michael D., and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. 2002. Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace. Political Analysis 10 (3):244–60.Google Scholar
Wendt, Alexander. 1992. Anarchy Is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics. International Organization 46 (2):391–425.Google Scholar
Weiner, Myron. 1978. Sons of the Soil: Migration and Ethnic Conflict in India. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Weiner, Myron. 1992–93. Security, Stability, and International Migration. International Security 17 (3):91–126.Google Scholar
Weiner, Myron. 1996. Bad Neighbors, Bad Neighborhoods: An Inquiry into the Causes of Refugee Flows. International Security 21 (1):5–42.Google Scholar
Woodwell, Douglas. 2004. Unwelcome Neighbors: Shared Ethnicity and International Conflict During the Cold War. International Studies Quarterly 48 (1):197–223.Google Scholar
Zolberg, Aristide, Astri Suhrke, and Sergio Aguayo. 1989. Escape from Violence: Conflict and the Refugee Crisis in the Developing World. New York: Oxford University Press.