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19. Of course, the aggregate size of a state's economy may not correspond to its ability to forgo trade in all products. However, since we adopt a macroeconomic and macropolitical approach in this study, the use of aggregate measures of size seems appropriate.

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29. Several previous studies have examined the effects of macroeconomic factors and changes in U.S. trade legislation on patterns of escape clause filings in the United States, but none has examined the interaction between macroeconomic and institutional factors. Moreover, we are interested in analyzing a wider variety of both NTBs and countries than considered earlier. For examples of studies of this sort, see Coughlin, Terza, and Khalifah, “The Determinants of Escape Clause Protection”; Feigenbaum and Willett, “Domestic Versus International Influences on Protectionist Pressures in the United States”; Feigenbaum, Ortiz, and Willett, “Protectionist Pressures and Aggregate Economic Conditions”; and Salvatore, “Import Penetration, Exchange Rates, and Protectionism in the United States.”

30. For example, it is well-known that the United States' geographically based, winner-take-all electoral system limits both the ability of parties to control the votes of legislators and their insulation from constituent pressures for protection. In this respect, the United States stands in contrast to PR systems, among other types of regimes. For examinations of these and other variations that are likely to influence trade policy, see Destler, American Trade Politics; and Rogowski, “Trade and the Variety of Democratic Institutions.”

31. Among the few studies that address this topic, see Katzenstein, “Conclusion”; Gourevitch, Politics in Hard Times; and Milner, Helen V., Resisting Protectionism: Global Industries and the Politics of International Trade (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1988)Google Scholar.

32. See, for example, Krasner, Defending the National Interest; Krasner, “United States Commercial and Monetary Policy”; Lake, Power, Protection, and Free Trade; Mansfield, Edward D., “International Institutions and Economic Sanctions,” World Politics 47 (07 1995), pp. 575–605CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Ray, Edward John, “Changing Patterns of Protectionism: The Fall in Tariffs and the Rise in Non-tariff Barriers,” Northwestern Journal of International Law and Business 8 (Fall 1987), pp. 285–325Google Scholar.

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38. Ray and Marvel, “The Pattern of Protection in the Industrial World.”

39. Laird, Sam and Yeats, Alexander, Quantitative Methods for Trade-Barrier Analysis (New York: New York University Press, 1990), p. 90CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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43. These data, as well as an extensive overview of the methods used to measure NTBs, are presented in Laird and Yeats, Quantitative Methods for Trade-Barrier Analysis.

44. Data on GDP are expressed in real terms and are taken fromSummers, Robert and Heston, Alan, “The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (05 1991), pp. 327–68CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and the computer diskette supplement to that article, dated 15 June 1993. Data on imports are taken from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics (Washington, D.C.: IMF, various years)Google Scholar.

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46. Belgium and Luxembourg are treated as a single state for the purposes of this analysis because the Belgium-Luxembourg Economic Unit stipulates that the two states maintain parity between their currencies, share in integrated foreign trade and balance of payment policies, and maintain a joint central bank. On this point, see TheEconomist Intelligence Unit, Belgium, Luxembourg Country Profile 1992–93 (London: The Economist Intelligence Unit, 1992)Google Scholar.

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48. See Bhagwati, Protectionism, chap. 3; and Laird and Yeats, Quantitative Methods for Trade-Barrier Analysis.

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50. For a discussion of this issue, see ibid.

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56. These data are taken from Summers and Heston, “The Penn World Table (Mark 5).”

57. Our analysis of this issue was conducted too recently to include these results in Table 1. The results are available upon request from the authors. We are grateful to Robert O. Keohane for suggesting that we conduct these tests related to the ratio of government expenditures to GDP.

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76. See, for example, Bhagwati, Protectionism; Gourevitch, Politics in Hard Times; Krasner, Defending the National Interest; Krasner, “United States Commercial and Monetary Policy”; Lake, Power, Protection, and Free Trade; Milner, Resisting Protectionism; and Nelson, “Endogenous Tariff Theory.”

77. See, for example, Gourevitch, Politics in Hard Times; Gowa, “Public Goods and Political Institutions”; Ikenberry, Lake, and Mastanduno, “Introduction”; Katzenstein, “Conclusion”; Krasner, Defending the National Interest; and Milner, Resisting Protectionism.

78. As noted throughout, our focus has been on explaining the incidence on NTBs. Other studies have focused on the level of NTBs and argued that NTBs and tariffs are complements. It is clear that our results and those based on the level of NTBs need not be incompatible. For one leading attempt to assess the relationship between tariffs and NTB levels, see Magee, , Brock, , and Young, Black Hole Tariffs and Endogenous Policy Theory, pp. 236–41Google Scholar.

79. For two perspectives on this possibility, see Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos F., Trade, Development and the World Economy (New York: Basil Blackwell, 1988; ed., Velasco, Andres)Google Scholar, chap. 14; and Findlay, Ronald, “Trade, Development, and the State,” in Ranis, Gustav and Schultz, T. Paul, eds., The State of Development Economics: Progress and Perspectives (New York: Basil Blackwell, 1988), pp. 78–95Google Scholar. We are grateful to an anonymous reviewer for bringing this point to our attention.