Hostname: page-component-f554764f5-c4bhq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-18T16:52:13.580Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Known Unknowns: Power Shifts, Uncertainty, and War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 July 2013

Alexandre Debs  and
Nuno P. Monteiro
Alexandre Debs
Affiliation:
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. E-mail: [email protected]
Nuno P. Monteiro
Affiliation:
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

Large and rapid power shifts resulting from exogenous economic growth are considered sufficient to cause preventive wars. Yet most large and rapid shifts result from endogenous military investments. We show that when the investment decision is perfectly transparent, peace prevails. Large and rapid power shifts are deterred through the threat of a preventive war. When investments remain undetected, however, states may be tempted to introduce power shifts as a fait accompli. Knowing this, their adversaries may strike preventively even without conclusive evidence of militarization. In fact, the more effective preventive wars are, the more likely they will be launched against states that are not militarizing. Our argument emphasizes the role of imperfect information as a cause of war. It also explains why powerful states may attack weaker targets even with ambiguous evidence of their militarization. We illustrate our theory through an account of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 68 , Issue 1 , January 2014 , pp. 1 - 31
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Ayson, Robert, and Taylor, Brendan. 2004. Attacking North Korea: Why War Might Be Preferred. Comparative Strategy 23 (3):263–79.Google Scholar
Baliga, Sandeep, and Sjostrom, Tomas. 2008. Strategic Ambiguity and Arms Proliferation. Journal of Political Economy 116 (6):1023–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bas, Muhamet A., and Coe, Andrew J.. 2012. Arms Diffusion and War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 56 (4):651–74.Google Scholar
Biddle, Stephen, Embrey, James, Filiberti, Edward, Kidder, Stephen, Metz, Steven, Oerlich, Ivan C., and Shelton, Richard. 2004. Toppling Saddam: Iraq and American Military Transformation. Carlisle Barracks, Pa.: US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute.Google Scholar
Blix, Hans. 2003a. An Update on Inspection. Presentation to the UNSC, 27 January, New York. Google Scholar
Blix, Hans. 2003b. Briefing of the Security Council: Oral Introduction of the Twelfth Quarterly Report of UNMOVIC. Presentation to the UNSC, 14 February, New York. Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1996. Beliefs About Power and the Risks of War: A Power Transition Game. In Parity and War, edited by Kugler, Jacek and Lemke, Douglas, 271–86. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Buhite, Russell, and Hamel, William Christopher. 1990. War for Peace: The Question of an American Preventive War Against the Soviet Union, 1945–1955. Diplomatic History 14 (3):367–84.Google Scholar
Bush, George W. 2002. State of the Union Address, 29 January. Available at ⟨http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html⟩. Accessed 22 May 2013.Google Scholar
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 2004. Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction. Available at ⟨https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004⟩. Accessed 22 May 2013.Google Scholar
Chadefaux, Thomas. 2011. Bargaining Over Power: When Do Rapid Shifts in Power Lead to War? International Theory 3 (2):228–53.Google Scholar
CNN. 2003. Bush, Blair: Time Running Out for Saddam. 31 January. Available at ⟨cnn.com/2003/US/01/31/sprj.irq.bush.blair.topics⟩. Accessed 22 May 2013.Google Scholar
Coe, Andrew. 2011. Costly Peace: A New Rationalist Explanation for War. Harvard University Working Paper. Available at ⟨http://andrewjcoe.com/Site/Research_files/Costly%20Peace.pdf⟩. Accessed 22 May 2013.Google Scholar
Copeland, Dale C. 2000. The Origins of Major War. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Craig, Campbell, and Radchenko, Sergey. 2008. The Atomic Bomb and the Origins of the Cold War. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Debs, Alexandre. 2011. Living by the Sword and Dying by the Sword? Leadership Transitions In and Out of Dictatorships. Unpublished manuscript. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University. Google Scholar
Debs, Alexandre, and Monteiro, Nuno P.. 2012. The Flawed Logic of Striking Iran: Instead, Handle It Like North Korea. Foreign Affairs, 17 January. Available at ⟨http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137036/alexandre-debs-and-nuno-p-monteiro/the-flawed-logic-of-striking-iran⟩. Accessed 22 May 2013.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (3):379–414.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1996. Bargaining Over Objects That Influence Future Bargaining Power. Unpublished manuscript, University of Chicago. Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 2010. Arming and Arms Races. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, September, Washington, D.C. Google Scholar
Freedman, Lawrence. 2004. War in Iraq: Selling the Threat. Survival 46 (2):7–49.Google Scholar
Fudenberg, Drew, and Tirole, Jean. 1991. Game Theory. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Fuhrmann, Matthew, and Kreps, Sarah E.. 2010. Targeting Nuclear Programs in War and Peace: A Quantitative Empirical Analysis, 1941–2000. Journal of Conflict Resolution 54 (6):831–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik. 1999. War Is in the Error Term. International Organization 53 (3):567–87.Google Scholar
Gavin, Francis J., and Rapp-Hooper, Mira. 2011. The Copenhagen Temptation: Rethinking Prevention and Proliferation in the Age of Deterrence Dominance. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Seattle, September. Google Scholar
Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gordin, Michael. 2009. Red Cloud at Dawn: Truman, Stalin, and the End of the Atomic Monopoly. New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux.Google Scholar
Gordon, Michael R., and Trainor, Bernard E.. 1995. The Generals' War: The Inside Story of the Conflict in the Gulf. Boston: Little Brown.Google Scholar
Harsanyi, John. 1973. Games with Randomly Disturbed Payoffs: A New Rationale for Mixed-Strategy Equilibrium Points. International Journal of Game Theory 2:1–23.Google Scholar
Harvey, Frank P. 2012. President Al Gore and the 2003 Iraq War: A Counterfactual Test of Conventional “W”isdom. Canadian Journal of Political Science 45 (1):1–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holloway, David. 1994. Stalin and the Bomb: The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy, 1939–1956. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). 2002. Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Net Assessment. London: International Institute for Strategic Studies. Google Scholar
Jackson, Matthew O., and Morelli, Massimo. 2009. Strategic Militarization, Deterrence, and Wars. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 4 (4):279–313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 2010. Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Kahl, Colin H. 2012. Not Time to Attack Iran. Why War Should Be a Last Resort. Foreign Affairs 91 (2):166–73.Google Scholar
Kay, David. 2004. Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction. Miller Center Report 20 (1):3–52.Google Scholar
Kerry, John. 2002. Congressional Record, 9 October. Available at ⟨http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1240102/posts⟩. Accessed 22 May 2013.Google Scholar
Kim, Woosang, and Morrow, James D.. 1992. When Do Power Shifts Lead to War? American Journal of Political Science 36 (4):896–922.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, Youngsam. 2001. President Kim Youngsam Memoir. Seoul: Chosun Ilbosa.Google Scholar
Kroenig, Matthew. 2012. Time to Attack Iran. Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option. Foreign Affairs 91 (1):76–86.Google Scholar
Kugler, Jacek, and Lemke, Douglas. 1996. Parity and War. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David A. 2010/2011. Two Cheers for Bargaining Theory: Assessing Rationalist Explanations of the Iraq War. International Security 35 (3):7–52.Google Scholar
Lake, David A., and McKoy, Michael K.. 2011/2012. Correspondence: Bargaining Theory and Rationalist Explanations for the Iraq War. International Security 36 (3):172–78.Google Scholar
Lee, Jung-Hoon, and Moon, Chung-in. 2003. The North Korean Nuclear Crisis. Security Dialogue 34 (2):135–52.Google Scholar
Lemke, Douglas. 2003. Investigating the Preventive Motive for War. International Interactions 29 (4):273–92.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack S. 2008. Preventive War and Democratic Politics. International Studies Quarterly 52 (1):1–24.Google Scholar
Meirowitz, Adam, and Ramsay, Kristopher W.. 2010. Investment and Bargaining. Unpublished manuscript, Princeton University, Princeton, N.J. Available at ⟨http://www.princeton.edu/econtheorycenter/wps/wp007.pdf⟩. Accessed 22 May 2013.Google Scholar
Meirowitz, Adam, and Sartori, Anne E.. 2008. Strategic Uncertainty as a Cause of War. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 3 (4):327–52.Google Scholar
Monteiro, Nuno P. 2011/2012. Unrest Assured: Why Unipolarity Is Not Peaceful. International Security 36 (3):9–40.Google Scholar
Monteiro, Nuno P., and Debs, Alexandre. 2012. The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Proliferation. Unpublished manuscript. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University. Google Scholar
Organski, A.F.K. 1958. World Politics. New York: Knopf.Google Scholar
Organski, A.F.K., and Kugler, Jacek. 1980. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Pape, Robert A. 1996. Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Perry, William J. 1999. Review of United States Policy Toward North Korea. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Congress. 12 October. Available at ⟨http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB87/nk20.pdf⟩. Accessed 22 May 2013.Google Scholar
Pollack, Jonathan D., and Reiss, Mitchell B.. 2004. South Korea: The Tyranny of Geography and the Vexations of History. In The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices, edited by Einhorn, Robert J., Campbell, Kurt M., and Reiss, Mitchell B., 254–92. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 1997. US Security Policy in a Nuclear-Armed World or: What If Iraq Had Had Nuclear Weapons? Security Studies 6 (3):1–31.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1993. Guns, Butter, and Anarchy. American Political Science Review 87 (1):115–132.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1999. In the Shadow of Power: States and Strategies in International Politics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2004. The Inefficient Use of Power: Costly Conflict with Complete Information. American Political Science Review 98 (2):231–41.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2006. War as a Commitment Problem. International Organization 60 (1):169–203.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2012. Persistent Fighting and Shifting Power. American Journal of Political Science 56 (3):620–37.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2013. Monopolizing Violence and Consolidating Power. Quarterly Journal of Economics 128 (2):807–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan. 2006. Preventive Attacks Against Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons Programs: The Track Record. In Hitting First: Preventive Force in US Security Strategy, edited by Keller, William and Mitchell, Gordon, 27–44. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.Google Scholar
Rhodes, Richard. 1995. Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Rhodes, Richard. 2010. The Twilight of the Bombs: Recent Challenges, New Dangers, and the Prospects for a World Without Nuclear Weapons. New York: Knopf.Google Scholar
Rice, Condoleezza. 2011. No Higher Honor: A Memoir of My Years in Washington. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Ritter, Scott. 1998. Interview with Elizabeth Farnsword. PBS News Hour, 31 August. Google Scholar
Rovner, Joshua. 2010. Fixing the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligence. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2010. The Enforcement Problem in Coercive Bargaining: Interstate Conflict over Rebel Support in Civil Wars. International Organization 64 (2):281–312.Google Scholar
Schweller, Randall L. 1992. Domestic Structure and Preventive War: Are Democracies More Pacific? World Politics 44 (2):235–69.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David. 1987. Reconstructing the Correlates of War Dataset on Material Capabilities of States, 1816–1985. International Interactions 14 (2):115–32.Google Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2005. Military Coercion in Interstate Crises. American Political Science Review 99 (4):533–47.Google Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2011. Military Threats: The Costs of Coercion and the Price of Peace. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Suskind, Ron. 2006. The One Percent Doctrine: Deep Inside America's Pursuit of Its Enemies Since 9/11. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Talmadge, Caitlin. 2008. Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz. International Security 33 (1):82–117.Google Scholar
Tenet, George. 2007. At the Center of the Storm: My Years at the CIA. With Bill Harlow. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Tessman, Brock, and Chan, Steve. 2009. Relative Decline: Why Does It War or Sustain Peace? In Systemic Transitions: Past, Present, and Future, edited by Thompson, William R., 9–30. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Thompson, Alexander. 2009. Channels of Power: The UN Security Council and US Statecraft in Iraq. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Thucydides. 1998. History of the Peloponnesian War. Translated by Lattimore, Steven. Indianapolis, Ind.: Hackett.Google Scholar
Tomz, Michael, and Weeks, Jessica L.. 2010. An Experimental Investigation of the Democratic Peace. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C. Google Scholar
Treisman, Daniel. 2004. Rational Appeasement. International Organization 58 (2):345–73.Google Scholar
United Nations. 2003. Briefing Security Council, US Secretary of State Powell Presents Evidence of Iraq's Failure to Disarm. Several Council Members Call for More Time for Inspections; France Proposes Strengthening of Inspection Regime. Press Release SC/7658. 2 February. Available at ⟨http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2003/sc7658.doc.htm⟩. Accessed 22 May 2013.Google Scholar
Vasquez, John A. 2009. Whether and How Global Leadership Transitions Will Result in War: Some Long-Term Predictions from the Steps to War—Explanation. In Systemic Transitions: Past, Present, and Future, edited by Thompson, William R., 131–60. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Werner, Suzanne, and Kugler, Jacek. 1996. Power Transitions and Military Buildups: Resolving the Relationship Between Arms Buildups and War. In Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger, edited by Kugler, Jacek and Lemke, Douglas, 187–208. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan.Google Scholar
Williamson, Samuel R. Jr., and Rearden, Steven L.. 1993. The Origins of US Nuclear Strategy, 1945–1953. New York: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
Wohlforth, William C. 1999. The Stability of a Unipolar World. International Security 24 (1):5–41.Google Scholar
Wolfowitz, Paul. 2003. Interview with Sam Tannenhaus. Vanity Fair, 9 May. Available at ⟨http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=2594⟩. Accessed 22 May 2013.Google Scholar
Woods, Kevin M., Pease, Michael R., Stout, Mark E., Murray, Williamson, and Lacey, James G.. 2006. Iraqi Perspectives Report: A View of Operation Iraqi Freedom from Saddam's Senior Leadership. Washington, D.C.: Joint Center for Operational Analysis, United States Joint Forces Command.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Debs Supplementary Material

Appendix

Download Debs Supplementary Material(PDF)
PDF 263.9 KB