Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-20T06:39:49.011Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

How Opportunity Costs Decrease the Probability of War in an Incomplete Information Game

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2010

Solomon Polachek
Affiliation:
State University of New York at Binghamton. E-mail: [email protected]
Jun Xiang
Affiliation:
University of Rochester, N.Y. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

This article shows that the opportunity costs resulting from economic interdependence decrease the probability of war in an incomplete information game. This result is strongly consistent with existing empirical analyses of the inverse trade-conflict relationship but is the opposite of the conclusion reached by Gartzke, Li, and Boehmer, who reject the opportunity cost argument in a game-theoretic framework. As a result of our findings, one cannot dismiss the opportunity cost argument as the explanation why trading nations fight less. Instead our study reaffirms the central position of opportunity costs as the basis for the inverse trade-conflict relationship, thus implying that one need not rely on signaling.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Barbieri, Katherine. 1996. Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict? Journal of Peace Research 33 (1):2949.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik, Li, Quan, and Boehmer, Charles. 2001. Investing in the Peace: Economic Interdependence and International Conflict. International Organization 55 (2):391438.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gasiorowski, Mark. 1986. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: Some Cross-National Evidence. International Studies Quarterly 30 (1):2338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, Philippe, Mayer, Thierry, and Thoenig, Mathias. 2008. Make Trade Not War? Review of Economic Studies 75 (3):865900.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1999. How Could Trade Affect Conflict? Journal of Peace Research 36 (4):481–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oneal, John R., and Russett, Bruce. 1999. Assessing the Liberal Peace with Alternative Specifications: Trade Still Reduces Conflict. Journal of Peace Research 36 (4):423–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Polachek, Solomon W. 1980. Conflict and Trade. Journal of Conflict Resolution 24 (1):5578.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Polachek, Solomon W., Seiglie, Carlos, and Xiang, Jun. 2007. The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on International Conflict. Defence and Peace Economics 18 (5):415–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Xiang, Jun, Xu, Xiaohong, and Keteku, George. 2007. Power: The Missing Link in the Trade Conflict Relationship. Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (4):646–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar