Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-fscjk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T05:54:44.922Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Evolution of Territorial Conquest After 1945 and the Limits of the Territorial Integrity Norm

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 June 2020

Dan Altman
Get access

Abstract

Past studies conclude that a territorial integrity norm caused territorial conquest to decline sharply after 1945, virtually subsiding after 1975. However, using new and more comprehensive data on territorial conquest attempts, this study presents a revised history of conquest after 1945. Unlike attempts to conquer entire states, attempts to conquer parts of states remained far more common than previously recognized. More than conquest declined in frequency, its relationship with war evolved. Challengers attempting conquest before 1945 often initiated a war, then sought to occupy large territories. Today, challengers more often seize small regions, then attempt to avoid war. Adopting this strategy, the fait accompli, challengers increasingly came to target territories with characteristics that reduce the risk of provoking war—such as a low population and the absence of a defending military garrison—but challengers nonetheless take a calculated gamble. In part because seizures of smaller territories with such characteristics have not declined, the operative constraint appears to be against war-prone aggression, not territorial revision. The evolution of conquest is a symptom of war's decline, not its cause. Most of the evidence that the territorial integrity norm suppressed conquest or war withers under investigation with new data. Attempts to get away with seizing small pieces of territory are likely to be a defining element of the twenty-first-century international security landscape.

Keywords

Territorial conquestterritorial conflictterritorial disputescauses of warinterstate warnormsterritorial integrity normfait accompli
Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 74 , Issue 3 , Summer 2020 , pp. 490 - 522
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Altman, Dan. 2017. By Fait Accompli, Not Coercion: How States Wrest Territory from Their Adversaries. International Studies Quarterly 61 (4):881–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Altman, Dan. 2018. Advancing Without Attacking: The Strategic Game Around the Use of Force. Security Studies 27 (1):58–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Altman, Dan, and Lee, Melissa M.. 2019. The Causes of Modern Conquest. Paper presented at the 115th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. September, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Atzili, Boaz. 2012. Good Fences, Bad Neighbors: Border Fixity and International Conflict. University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Bower, Adam. 2019. Contesting the International Criminal Court: Bashir, Kenyatta, and the Status of the Nonimpunity Norm in World Politics. Journal of Global Security Studies 4 (1):88–104.10.1093/jogss/ogy037CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braumoeller, Bear F. 2019. Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the Modern Age. Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Bremer, Stuart A. 1992. Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816–1965. Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (2):309–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brooks, Stephen G. 2007. Producing Security: Multinational Corporations, Globalization, and the Changing Calculus of Conflict. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Brunnée, Jutta, and Toope, Stephen J.. 2019. Norm Robustness and Contestation in International Law: Self-Defense Against Nonstate Actors. Journal of Global Security Studies 4 (1):73–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, David B. 2010. The Strategy of Territorial Conflict. American Journal of Political Science 54 (4):969–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, David B., and Goemans, Hein E.. 2011. The Making of the Territorial Order: New Borders and the Emergence of Interstate Conflict. International Organization 65 (2):275–309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corbetta, Renato, and Dixon, William J.. 2005. Danger Beyond Dyads: Third-Party Participants in Militarized Interstate Disputes. Conflict Management and Peace Science 22 (1):39–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Correlates of War Project. 2017. State System Membership List, v2016.Google Scholar
Deitelhoff, Nicole, and Zimmermann, Lisbeth. 2019. Norms Under Challenge: Unpacking the Dynamics of Norm Robustness. Journal of Global Security Studies 4 (1):2–17.10.1093/jogss/ogy041CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deitelhoff, Nicole, and Zimmerman, Lisbeth. 2020. Things We Lost in the Fire: How Different Types of Contestation Affect the Robustness of International Norms. International Studies Review 22 (1):51–76.Google Scholar
Diehl, Paul, and Goertz, Gary. 2002. Territorial Changes and International Conflict. Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fazal, Tanisha M. 2007. State Death: The Politics and Geography of Conquest, Occupation, and Annexation. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Fazal, Tanisha M. 2014. Dead Wrong? Battle Deaths, Military Medicine, and Exaggerated Reports of War's Demise. International Security 39 (1):95–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1997. Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands Versus Sinking Costs. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1):68–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernandes, Clinton. 2011. The Independence of East Timor. Sussex Academic Press.Google Scholar
Fravel, M. Taylor. 2008. Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China's Territorial Disputes. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frederick, Bryan A., Hensel, Paul R., and Macaulay, Christopher. 2017. The Issue Correlates of War Territorial Claims Data, 1816–2001. Journal of Peace Research 54 (1):99–108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freedman, Lawrence. 2003. The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy. 3rd ed.Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freedman, Lawrence. 2005. The Official History of the Falklands Campaign. Vol. 1. Routledge.Google Scholar
Fuhrmann, Matthew, and Sechser, Todd S.. 2014. Signaling Alliance Commitments: Hand-Tying and Sunk Costs in Extended Nuclear Deterrence. American Journal of Political Science 58 (4):919–35.10.1111/ajps.12082CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ganguly, Sumit. 2016. Deadly Impasse: Indo-Pakistani Relations at the Dawn of a New Century. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
George, Alexander L., and Smoke, Richard. 1974. Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice. Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Goertz, Gary, Diehl, Paul F., and Balas, Alexandru. 2016. The Puzzle of Peace: The Evolution of Peace in the International System. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gotberg, Brook. 2009. The End of Conquest: Consolidating Sovereign Equality. In International Norms and Cycles of Change, edited by Wayne Sandholtz and Kendall Stiles, 55–65. Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Griffiths, Ryan D., and Butcher, Charles R.. 2013. Introducing the International System(s) Dataset (ISD), 1816–2011. International Interactions 39 (5):748–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hathaway, Oona A., and Shapiro, Scott J.. 2017. The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World. Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Hensel, Paul R., Allison, Michael E., and Khanani, Ahmed. 2009. Territorial Integrity Treaties and Armed Conflict over Territory. Conflict Management and Peace Science 26 (2):120–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hensel, Paul R., and Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin. 2005. Issue Indivisibility and Territorial Claims. GeoJournal 64 (4):275–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holsti, Kalevi J. 1991. Peace and War: Armed Conflicts and International Order, 1648–1989. Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511628290CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hensel, Paul R., Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, Sowers, Thomas E. II, and Thyne, Clayton L.. 2008. Bones of Contention: Comparing Territorial, Maritime, and River Issues. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (1):117–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1996. Standing Your Ground: Territorial Disputes and International Conflict. University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul K., and Allee, Todd L.. 2002. The Democratic Peace and Territorial Conflict in the Twentieth Century. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ikenberry, G. John. 1998. Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Persistence of American Postwar Order. International Security 23 (3):43–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, Daniel, Stuart, M., Bremer, A., and Singer, J. David. 1996. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (2):163–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Korman, Sharon. 1996. The Right of Conquest: The Acquisition of Territory by Force in International Law and Practice. Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
Kratochwil, Friedrich, and Ruggie, John Gerard. 1986. International Organization: A State of the Art on an Art of the State. International Organization 40 (4):753–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Melissa M. 2018. The International Politics of Incomplete Sovereignty: How Hostile Neighbors Weaken the State. International Organization 72 (2):283–315.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Melissa M., and Prather, Lauren. 2019. Selling International Law Enforcement: Elite Justifications and Public Values. Working Paper.Google Scholar
Lemke, Douglas. 2002. Regions of War and Peace. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liberman, Peter. 1998. Does Conquest Pay? The Exploitation of Occupied Industrial Societies. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., and Jaggers, Keith. 2002. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2002. Available at <https://www3.nd.edu/~mcoppedg/crd/PolityIVUsersManualv2002.pdf>..>Google Scholar
Moul, William. 2003. Power Parity, Preponderance, and War Between Great Powers, 1816–1989. Journal of Conflict Resolution 47 (4):468–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mueller, John. 1990. Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War. Basic Books.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mueller, John. 2007. The Remnants of War. Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
O'Mahoney, Joseph. 2018. Denying the Spoils of War: The Politics of Invasion and Non-recognition. Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Owen, John M. 1994. How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace. International Security 19 (2):87–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oneal, John R., and Russett, Bruce M.. 1997. The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950–1985. International Studies Quarterly 41 (2):267–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Panke, Diana, and Petersohn, Ulrich. 2016. Norm Challenges and Norm Death: The Inexplicable? Cooperation and Conflict 51 (1):3–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pinker, Steven. 2012. The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. Penguin.Google Scholar
Prorok, Alyssa K., and Huth, Paul K.. 2015. International Law and the Consolidation of Peace Following Territorial Changes. Journal of Politics 77 (1):161–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sagan, Scott D., and Waltz, Kenneth N.. 2013. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate. W.W. Norton.Google Scholar
Sandholtz, Wayne. 2008. Dynamics of International Norm Change: Rules Against Wartime Plunder. European Journal of International Relations 14 (1):101–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sandholtz, Wayne. 2019. Norm Contestation, Robustness, and Replacement. Journal of Global Security Studies 4 (1):139–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sarkees, Meredith R., and Wayman, Frank. 2010. Resort to War: 1816–2007. CQ Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. Arms and Influence. Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2017. Mapping Interstate Territorial Conflict: A New Data Set and Applications. Journal of Conflict Resolution 71 (7):1565–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shelef, Nadav G. 2016. Unequal Ground: Homelands and Conflict. International Organization 70 (1):33–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart, and Stuckey, John. 1972. Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965. In Peace, War, and Numbers, edited by Russett, Bruce, 19–48. Sage.Google Scholar
Snyder, Glenn H., and Diesing, Paul. 1977. Conflict Among Nations. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Tarar, Ahmer. 2016. A Strategic Logic of the Military Fait Accompli. International Studies Quarterly 60 (4):742–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tir, Jaroslav, Schafer, Philip, Diehl, Paul F., and Goertz, Gary. 1998. Territorial Changes, 1816–1996: Procedures and Data. Conflict Management and Peace Science 16 (1):89–97.10.1177/073889429801600105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tir, Jaroslav, and Vasquez, John A.. 2012. Territory and Geography. In Guide to the Scientific Study of International Processes, edited by Mitchell, S.M., Diehl, P.F., and Morrow, J.D., 115–134. Wiley-Blackwell.Google Scholar
Van Evera, Stephen. 1998. Offense, Defense, and the Causes of War. International Security 22 (4):5–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vasquez, John A., and Henehan, Marie T.. 2001. Territorial Disputes and the Probability of War, 1816–1992. Journal of Peace Research 38 (2):123–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Westad, Odd Arne. 2005. The Global Cold War: Third World Interventions and the Making of Our Times. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wiegand, Krista Eileen. 2011. Enduring Territorial Disputes: Strategies of Bargaining, Coercive Diplomacy, and Settlement. University of Georgia Press.Google Scholar
Wohlforth, William C. 1999. The Stability of a Unipolar World. International Security 24 (1):5–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zacher, Mark W. 2001. The Territorial Integrity Norm: International Boundaries and the Use of Force. International Organization 55 (2):215–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhang, Xiaoming. 2015. Deng Xiaoping's Long War: The Military Conflict Between China and Vietnam, 1979–1991. UNC Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Altman Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/XLYTC7
Link