Hostname: page-component-f554764f5-c4bhq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-11T01:08:44.005Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Deals with the Devil? Conflict Amnesties, Civil War, and Sustainable Peace

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2018

Geoff Dancy
Get access

Abstract

Do legal amnesties for combatants help end civil wars? International policy experts often take it for granted that amnesties promote negotiated settlements with rebels. However, a large number of amnesties are followed by continued fighting or a return to the battlefield. What, then, are the factors that make amnesties effective or ineffective? In this article I use a disaggregated data set of all amnesties enacted in the context of internal war since 1946 to evaluate a bargaining theory of amnesties and peace. Testing hypotheses about conflict patterns using models that account for selection, I find that (1) only amnesties passed following conflict termination help resolve civil wars, (2) amnesties are more effective when they are embedded in peace agreements, and (3) amnesties that grant immunity for serious rights violations have no observable pacifying effects. These policy-relevant findings represent a new breakthrough in an ossified “peace versus justice” debate pitting security specialists against global human rights advocates.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 72 , Issue 2 , Spring 2018 , pp. 387 - 421
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Arnould, Valerie. 2016. Amnesties and Peace Failures in the DRC. Paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA.Google Scholar
Bass, Gary J. 2016. Bargaining Away Justice: India, Pakistan, and the International Politics of Impunity for the Bangladesh Genocide. International Security 41 (2):140–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, Christine. 2008. On the Law of Peace: Peace Agreements and the Lex Pacificatoria. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Binningsbø, Helga Malmin, Loyle, Cyanne E., Gates, Scott, and Elster, Jon. 2012. Armed Conflict and Post-conflict Justice 1946–2006, A Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 49 (5):731–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blattman, Christopher, and Miguel, Edward. 2010. Civil War. Journal of Economic Literature 48 (1):3–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Online, British History. 2016. An Act of Free and Generall Pardon Indempnity and Oblivion. Available at <http://www.british-history.ac.uk/statutes-realm/vol5/>, 226–34.,+226–34.>Google Scholar
Brito, Dagobert L., and Intriligator, Michael D.. 1985. Conflict, War, and Redistribution. American Political Science Review 79 (4):943–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burt, Jo-Marie. 2014. Guatemalan Genocide Trial Set to Resume Amid Amnesty Battles. Truth Out, 30 December.Google Scholar
Campbell, Colm, and Connolly, Ita. 2012. The Sharp End: Armed Opposition Movements, Transitional Truth Processes and the Rechtsstaat. International Journal of Transitional Justice 6 (1):11–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cobban, Helena. 2007. Amnesty After Atrocity? Healing Nations after Genocide and War Crimes. Boulder, CO: Paradigm.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 2004. Greed and Grievance in Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers 56:563–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cunningham, David E., Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Salehyan, Idean. 2009. It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (4):570–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, Laura, and Hayner, Priscilla. 2009. Difficult Peace, Limited Justice: Ten Years of Peacemaking in the DRC. New York: International Center for Transitional Justice.Google Scholar
DeRouen, Karl, and Chowdhury, Ishita. 2018. Mediation, Peacekeeping and Civil War Peace Agreements. Defence and Peace Economics 29 (2):130–46. Available at <https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1173439>.CrossRef.>Google Scholar
Doyle, Michael, and Sambanis, Nicholas. 2002. International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis. American Political Science Review 94 (4):779–801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Driscoll, Jesse. 2012. Commitment Problems or Bidding Wars? Rebel Fragmentation as Peace Building. Journal of Conflict Resolution 56 (1):118–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eck, Kristine, and Hultman, Lisa. 2007. Violence Against Civilians in War. Journal of Peace Research 44 (2):233–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elster, Jon. 2004. Closing the Books: Transitional Justice in Historical Perspective. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (3):379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 2004. Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others? Journal of Peace Research 41 (3):275–301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Filson, Darren, and Werner, Suzanne. 2002. A Bargaining Model of War and Peace: Anticipating the Onset, Duration and Outcome of War. American Journal of Political Science 46 (4):269–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fortna, Virigina Page. 2008. Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerent's Choices After Civil War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Freedmen and Southern Society Project. 2016. The Proclamation of Amnesty and Reconstruction. Available at <http://www.freedmen.umd.edu/procamn.htm>..>Google Scholar
Freeman, Mark. 2009. Necessary Evils: Amnesties and the Search for Justice. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freeman, Mark, and Pensky, Max. 2012. The Amnesty Controversy in International Law. In Amnesty in the Age of Human Rights Accountability: Comparative and International Perspectives, edited by Lessa, Francesca and Payne, Leigh A., 42–68. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gallón, Natalie. 2016. FARC Negotiator: Peace in Colombia is Difficult Without Amnesty. CNN, 20 September.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollonberg, Margareta, and Strand, Håvard. 2002. Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39 (5):615–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harbom, Lotta, Melander, Erik, and Wallensteen, Peter. 2008. Dyadic Dimensions of Armed Conflict, 1946–2007. Journal of Peace Research 45 (5):697–710.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline, and Hoddie, Matthew. 2003. Institutionalizing Peace: Power Sharing and Post-Civil War Conflict Management. American Journal of Political Science 47 (2):318–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline, and Hoddie, Matthew. 2007. Crafting Peace: Power-Sharing Institutions and the Negotiated Settlement of Civil Wars. University Park, PA: Penn State University Press.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline, Hoddie, Matthew, and Rothchild, Donald. 2001. Stabilizing the Peace after Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables. International Organization 55 (1):183–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heckman, James J. 1976. The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Seletion and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models. Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 5 (4):475–92.Google Scholar
Hironaka, Ann. 2009. Neverending Wars: The International Community, Weak States, and the Perpetuation of Civil War. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Iacus, Stefano M., King, Gary, and Porro, Giuseppe. 2012. Causal Inference Without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching. Political Analysis 20 (1):1–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jeffery, Renée. 2014. Amnesties, Accountability, and Human Rights. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.Google Scholar
Joshi, Madhav, and Quinn, Jason M.. 2016. Watch and Learn: Spillover Effects of Peace Accord Implementation on Non-signatory Armed Groups. Research and Politics 3 (1):1–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis N., and Balcells, Laia. 2010. International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict. American Political Science Research 104 (3):415–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kreutz, Joakim. 2010. How and When Armed Conflicts End: Introducing the UCDP Conflict Termination Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 47 (2):243–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laplante, Lisa. 2009. Outlawing Amnesty: The Return of Criminal Justice in Transitional Justice Schemes. Virginia Journal of International Law 50 (1):915–84.Google Scholar
Lebow, Richard Ned. 1996. The Art of Bargaining. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Licklider, Roy. 1995. The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–1993. American Political Science Review 89 (3):681–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lie, Tove Grete, Binningsbø, Helga Malmin, and Gates, Scott. 2007. Post-Conflict Justice and Sustainable Peace. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4191. Available at <http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLAWJUSTINST/Resources/PostConflict.pdf>..>Google Scholar
Linzer, Drew A., and Staton, Jeffrey K.. 2015. A Global Measure of Judicial Independence, 1948–2012. Journal of Law and Courts 3 (2):223–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupu, Yonatan. 2013. The Informative Power of Treaty Commitment: Using the Spatial Model to Address Selection Effects. American Journal of Political Science 57 (4):912–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mallinder, Louise. 2008. Amnesty, Human Rights and Political Transition: Bridging the Peace and Justice Divide. Oxford: Hart.Google Scholar
Mallinder, Louise. 2009. Uganda at a Crossroads: Narrowing the Amnesty? Oxford: Institute of Criminology and Criminal Justice.Google Scholar
Mallinder, Louise. 2012. Amnesties’ Challenge to the Accountability Norm? In Amnesty in the Age of Human Rights Accountability: Comparative and International Perspectives, edited by Lessa, Francesca and Payne, Leigh A., 69–96. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., Jaggers, Keith, and Gurr, Ted Robert. 2013. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2010: Data User's Guide. Available at <http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4manualv2016.pdf>..' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Marshall,+Monty+G.,+Jaggers,+Keith,+and+Gurr,+Ted+Robert.+2013.+Polity+IV+Project:+Political+Regime+Characteristics+and+Transitions,+1800–2010:+Data+User's+Guide.+Available+at+.>Google Scholar
Mattes, Michaela, and Savun, Burcu. 2010. Information, Agreement Design, and the Durability of Civil War Settlements. American Journal of Political Science 54 (2):511–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McEvoy, Kieran, and Mallinder, Louise. 2012. Amnesties in Transition: Punishment, Restoration, and the Governance of Mercy. Journal of Law and Society 39 (3):410–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Melander, Erik. 2009. Justice or Peace? A Statistical Study of the Relationship Between Amnesties and Durable Peace. JAD–PbP Working Paper Series no. 4. Available at <https://www.academia.edu/1083380/Justice_or_Peace>..>Google Scholar
Mufson, Steven. 1999. US Backs Amnesty in Sierra Leone. Washington Post, 18 October.Google Scholar
Olsen, Tricia D., Payne, Leigh A., and Reiter, Andrew G.. 2010. Transitional Justice in Balance: Comparing Processes, Weighing Efficacy. Washington, DC: US Institute of Peace.Google Scholar
Orentlicher, Diane F. 1995. Settling Accounts: The Duty to Prosecute Human Rights Violations of a Prior Regime. In Transitional Justice: How Emerging Democracies Reckon with Former Regimes, Vol. 1, edited by Kritz, Neil J., 12–13. Washington, DC: USIP.Google Scholar
Pensky, Max. 2008. Amnesty on Trial: Impunity, Accountabilty, and the Norms of International Law. Ethics and Global Politics 1 (1):1–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pettersson, Therése, and Wallensteen, Peter. 2015. Armed Conflicts, 1946–2014. Journal of Peace Research 52 (4):536–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2002. Bargaining Theory and International Conflict. Annual Review of Political Science 5:1–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2006. War As a Commitment Problem. International Organization 60 (1):169–203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quinn, David, Wilkenfield, Jonathan, Eralp, Pelin, Asal, Victor, and McLaughlin, Theodore. 2013. Crisis Managers But Not Conflict Resolvers: Mediating Ethnic Intrastate Conflict in Africa. Conflict Management and Peace Science 30 (4):387–406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rauchhaus, Robert W. 2009. Principal-Agent Problems in Humanitarian Intervention: Moral Hazards, Adverse Selection, and the Commitment Dilemma. International Studies Quarterly 53 (4):871–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan. 2003. Exploring the Bargaining Model of War. Perspectives on Politics 1 (1):27–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roht-Arriaza, Naomi. 1990. State Responsibility to Investigate and Prosecute Grave Human Rights Violations in International Law. Calilfornia Law Review 78 (2):449–513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salehyan, Idean, and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2006. Refugees and the Spread of Civil War. International Organization 60 (2):335–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scharf, Michael, and Williams, Paul R.. 2003. The Functions of Justice and Anti-Justice in the Peace-Building Process. Case Western Reserve Journal of International Law 35:161–90.Google Scholar
Scheffer, David. 2012. All the Missing Souls: A Personal History of the War Crimes Tribunals. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Seils, Paul. 2014. ICC's Intolerance of Impunity Does Not Make It an Enemy of Peace. International Center for Transitional Justice, 17 November.Google Scholar
Sikkink, Kathryn. 2011. The Justice Cascade: How Human Rights Prosecutions are Changing World Politics. New York: W.W. Norton.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth A., and Hopkins, Daniel J.. 2005. The Constraining Power of International Treaties: Theory and Methods. American Political Science Review 99 (4):623–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slye, Ronald. 2002. The Legitimacy of Amnesties Under International Law and General Principles of Anglo-American Law. Virginia Journal of International Law 43:173–240.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair, and Stam, Allan C.. 2004. Bargaining and the Nature of War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (6):783–813.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sndyer, Glenn Herald, and Diesing, Paul. 1978. Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure in International Crises. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Snyder, Jack, and Vinjamuri, Leslie. 2003/4. Trials and Errors: Principle and Pragmatism in Strategies of International Justice. International Security 28 (3):5–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sonnenberg, Stephan, and Cavallaro, James L.. 2012. Name, Shame, and Then Build Consensus? Bringing Conflict Resolution Skills to Human Rights. Washington University Journal of Law and Policy 39 (1):257–308.Google Scholar
Stedman, Stephen John. 1997. Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes. International Security 22 (2):5–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Themnér, Lotta, and Wallensteen, Peter. 2014. Armed Conflict, 1946–2013. Journal of Peace Research 51 (4):541–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Turnbull IV, Charles P. 2007. Giving Amnesties a Second Chance. Berkeley Journal of International Law 283:305–17.Google Scholar
Vivanco, José Miguel. 2016. Colombia Peace Deal's Promise, and Flaws. Human Rights Watch, 27 September. Available at <https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/09/27/colombia-peace-deals-promise-and-flaws>..' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Vivanco,+José+Miguel.+2016.+Colombia+Peace+Deal's+Promise,+and+Flaws.+Human+Rights+Watch,+27+September.+Available+at+.>Google Scholar
Von Einsiedel, Sebastian. 2014. Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict. Technical Report 1, United Nations University Centre for Policy Research, Tokyo, Japan.Google Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 2000. Bargaining and War. American Journal of Political Science 44 (3):469–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 1997. The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement. International Organization 51 (3):335–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2002. Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2004. Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War. Journal of Peace Research 41 (3):371–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2006. Building Reputation: Why Governments Fight Some Separatists but Not Others. American Journal of Political Science 50 (2):313–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2009. Bargaining Failures and Civil War. Annual Review of Political Science 12:243–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2014. Why Bad Governance Leads to Repeat Civil War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (2):1–31.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Dancy supplementary material

Appendix

Download Dancy supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 449.3 KB
Supplementary material: File

Dancy supplementary material

Dancy supplementary material 1

Download Dancy supplementary material(File)
File 125.5 KB