Objective: To determine the extent to which public health decision makers used five systematic reviews to make policy decisions, and to determine which characteristics predict their use.

Methods: This cross-sectional follow-up study of public health decision makers in Ontario collected primary data using a telephone survey and a short, self-administered organizational demographics questionnaire completed by the administrative assistant for each Medical Officer of Health. Independent variables included characteristics of the innovation, organization, environment, and individual. Data were entered into a computerized database developed specifically for this study, and multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted.

Results: The participation rate was very high, with 85% of public health units and 96% of available decision makers completing the survey. In addition, 63% of respondents stated they had used at least one of the systematic reviews in the previous 2 years to make a decision. The most important predictors of use were one's position, expecting to use a review in the future, and perceptions that the reviews were easy to use and that they overcame the barrier of limited critical appraisal skills.

Conclusions: Utilization of the systematic reviews in Ontario was very high. The utilization rates found in this study were significantly higher than those reported in previous utilization studies. One's position was found to be the strongest predictor of use, identifying program managers and directors as the most appropriate audience for systematic reviews.

The objective of this paper is to discuss why Bayesian statistics are not used more in healthcare decision making and what might be done to increase the use of Bayesian methods. First, a case is made for why Bayesian analysis should be used more widely. Serious weaknesses of commonly used frequentist methods are discussed and contrasted with advantages of Bayesian methods. Next, the question of why Bayesian methods are not used more widely is addressed, considering both philosophical differences and practical issues. Contrary to what some might think, the practical issues are more important in this regard. Finally, some steps to encourage increased use of Bayesian methods in healthcare decision making are presented and discussed. These ideas are straightforward but are by no means trivial to implement, largely because it is difficult to fight tradition and make major paradigm shifts quickly. The primary needs are improved Bayesian training at the basic level (which means textbooks and other materials as well as training of those who teach at the basic level), procedures to make Bayesian analysis easier to understand and use (better software and standard methods for displaying and communicating Bayesian outputs will help here), and the education of decision makers about the advantages of Bayesian methods in important healthcare decision-making problems.

Assessing the costs and benefits of developing a clinical practice guideline is important because investments in guidelines compete with investments in other clinical programs. Despite the considerable number of guidelines in many industrialized countries, little is known about their costs and cost-effectiveness. The authors have developed specific measures to determine the cost-effectiveness of guidelines, using a German evidence-based guideline on obesity for the diagnosis and treatment of obese patients as a model. The measures are: the number of people needed to cure, the number of people needed to prevent from developing the disease in question, and the number of people to treat in order to break even.

Objective: To explore the impact of health technology assessment (HTA) on health policy and practice in Greece through selected screening case studies in the prevention area. The three cases studied were mammography screening, PSA screening, and routine ultrasonography in normal pregnancy.

Methods: Official policy recommendations or reports, a literature review of Greek published research as well as gray literature from various sources, and interviews with specialists and medical associations were performed, and their impact on health policy formulation was examined.

Results: The implementation of the screening tests does not take the form of structured mass screening programs. Almost all physicians (urologists-pathologists, gynecologists) apply PSA and routine ultrasonography in normal pregnancy respectively with the purpose of either prevention or diagnosis. Mammography is applied generally for prevention or diagnosis, but there are some mass screening programs at a local level. In addition, the results show no evidence that the efficacy and the cost-effectiveness of the three screening programs have been a matter of serious concern and investigation for the purposes of policy formulation in Greece.

Conclusion: The results point to a need for the implementation of HTA methods on mass screening preventive programs in which real value and cost remain unclear and whose use is based on empirical and personal assessments.

Objectives: The objectives of the study were to identify the current standards of clinical practice regarding prostate cancer screening in western Europe, Canada, and the United States, and to highlight major characteristics of current prostate cancer screening programs or patterns of practice.

Methods: We performed a semi-structured interview by means of a self-administered questionnaire sent by fax to 26 institutes pertaining to the International Network of Agencies for Health Technology Assessment.

Results: None of the countries surveyed had a formal national screening policy. Despite that, all the countries answering the questionnaire had discretionary, public-financed screening practices. Moreover, some scientific and professional organizations recommended population screening for prostate cancer, and few of the surveyed countries offered it as experimental practice within a randomized controlled trial. Survey results showed variation regarding screening policies, in particular test of choice, age cut-off points, and treatment prescribed for positive test results.

Conclusions: Despite the lack of conclusive evidence on the benefits of prostate cancer screening, the availability of simple and easy-to-administer tests has lead to an enormous variation on screening policies around the world. Practice variations also affect prostate cancer therapy.

Objective: To present current scientific statements and practice on mammography, ultrasonography in pregnancy, and PSA within the Italian National Health Service (NHS).

Methods: Information on the three screenings was found in several position papers prepared by working groups at national and regional levels.

Results: For mammography the adjusted mortality rate for breast cancer increased in the last four decades and decreased in the last few years. Only 4.9% of women aged 50–70 years are covered by screening. In 1996 a consensus paper stated that biennial examination for women aged 50–69 years should be offered to reduce breast cancer mortality. A national program for breast cancer screening was launched under the responsibility of regional governments, but data about its implementation are not yet available. Regarding PSA screening, the results show that prostate cancer is the fourth most frequent neoplasm in males. A formal evaluation of prostate cancer screening was done in 1995 by the National Research Council and the Italian Association for Cancer Research; they did not recommend the NHS implement this service. In the National Health Plan 1998–2000, prostate cancer screening is not mentioned. So far, an organized and standardized screening program, based on routine PSA testing, does not exist in Italy. Nevertheless, a lot of PSA tests are performed at the clinical level to detect early prostate cancers. The results with regard to routine ultrasonography in pregnancy show that in 1996 the birth rate was 9.30 per 1,000 inhabitants, with 536,740 live births. In the period from 1992–94, the percentage of babies with a birth weight less than 2,500 gm and less than 1,500 gm were 5.85% and 0.91%, respectively. A formal screening program for detecting fetal growth retardation, based on the routine ultrasonography in the third trimester of the normal pregnancy, doesn't exist in Italy, but this test is widely performed. It is paid for under NHS coverage.

Conclusion: In 1998 the National Health Plan 1998–2000 stated that the NHS should offer only evidence-based preventive and diagnostic interventions and stressed the importance of appropriate use of health technology.

Objectives: The objective of this study was to assess the quality of economic analysis studies published in the medical and economical literature assessing the clinical management of functional dyspepsia.

Methods: Bibliographic search in the main biomedical databases, in articles from bibliographic references, health technology assessment reports, and in gray literature. A specific protocol with economic and clinical items was designed for the evaluation.

Results: Overall, 18 of 162 studies met the inclusion criteria for the assessment. The compared treatment options were very diverse. The main methodologic deficiencies were in perspective of analysis, inclusion of indirect costs, and sources of clinical information.

Conclusions: Specific checklists with clinical and economical items may help to better assess the quality of economic analysis in the field of functional dyspepsia. The methodologic rigor in the application of economic analysis techniques, as well as the use of appropriate clinical outcome measures, is essential to guarantee the reproducibility of the studies.

The aim of this paper is to discuss the use of Bayesian methods in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and the common ground between Bayesian and traditional frequentist approaches. A further aim is to explore the use of the net benefit statistic and its advantages over the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) statistic. In particular, the use of cost-effectiveness acceptability curves is examined as a device for presenting the implications of uncertainty in a CEA to decision makers. Although it is argued that the interpretation of such curves as the probability that an intervention is cost-effective given the data requires a Bayesian approach, this should generate no misgivings for the frequentist. Furthermore, cost-effectiveness acceptability curves estimated using the net benefit statistic are exactly equivalent to those estimated from an appropriate analysis of ICERs on the cost-effectiveness plane. The principles examined in this paper are illustrated by application to the cost-effectiveness of blood pressure control in the U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS 40). Due to a lack of good-quality prior information on the cost and effectiveness of blood pressure control in diabetes, a Bayesian analysis assuming an uninformative prior is argued to be most appropriate. This generates exactly the same cost-effectiveness results as a standard frequentist analysis.

Objective: To review the assessment and implementation of three screening methods: mammography for breast cancer, screening for prostate cancer, and routine use of ultrasound in pregnancy.

Methods: To review policy documents and published papers dealing with prevention and screening in the Netherlands, focusing on the three screening methods specified.

Results: The results indicate that the Netherlands has an active establishment devoted to health technology assessment (HTA). The Netherlands government has also made prevention a high priority in the health services system. Within prevention policy, HTA is given an important place. The general policy is that prevention programs should meet high standards of effectiveness and efficiency, as well as ethical, legal, and social acceptability. In addition, the Netherlands may be unique in the world in having a specific law requiring that proposals for population screening must be carefully assessed before they are implemented.

Conclusions: The three cases examined in this paper have all been assessed, and the conclusions are similar to those presented in the synthesis published in this issue (33). In the case of mammography, the assessment was followed by a rational implementation of a national screening program for breast cancer. In the other two cases, however, despite negative conclusions from assessment, the tests are frequently carried out, especially in what has been termed opportunistic screening. Prostate cancer screening seems to be spreading rapidly. Use of ultrasound in pregnancy is frequent, not necessarily for medical reasons but because parents wish to have a picture of their fetus. The conclusion is that HTA is well established in the Netherlands, as illustrated in these three cases, and policy is based on the assessments done. However, practice is not in accord with the assessment in the cases of prostate cancer and routine ultrasound. Policies to deal effectively with opportunistic screening are difficult to imagine.

A desirable element of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) modeling is a systematic way to relate uncertainty about input parameters to uncertainty in the computational results of the CEA model. Use of Bayesian statistical estimation and Monte Carlo simulation provides a natural way to compute a posterior probability distribution for each CEA result. We demonstrate this approach by reanalyzing a previously published CEA evaluating the incremental cost-effectiveness of tissue plasminogen activator compared to streptokinase for thrombolysis in acute myocardial infarction patients using data from the GUSTO trial and other auxiliary data sources. We illustrate Bayesian estimation for proportions, mean costs, and mean quality-of-life weights. The computations are performed using the Bayesian analysis software WinBUGS, distributed by the MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, England.

Objectives: This study examined users' perceptions of the role and value of the Scottish Health Purchasing Information Centre (SHPIC) from 1995 to 1998.

Methods: Questionnaires and interviews were used to gather data from Scottish GP fundholders and health board managers at two stages.

Results: Initially, purchasers sought help in identifying the most relevant information. By 1997, while some appreciated the clinical and cost-effectiveness information produced, others were critical of lack of timely production and apparent lack of cooperation between agencies.

Conclusions: New U.K. agencies can learn from SHPIC's problems, specifically in producing clear, coordinated, timely, independent, and well-marketed information with implementation strategies.

Policy Implications: It is important to evaluate the impact of agencies to produce and disseminate evidence-based information, even if this has to be done pragmatically rather than as an outcomes-based assessment. Evidence from evaluations can inform direction and strategy for existing and new agencies.

Objectives: To document the mammography data that are gathered by the organized screening programs participating in the International Breast Cancer Screening Network (IBSN), the nature of their procedures for data quality assurance, and the measures used to assess program performance and impact.

Methods: A detailed questionnaire covering multiple aspects of quality assurance in screening mammography was mailed to IBSN representatives in 23 countries.

Results: Countries collect a wealth of screening mammography data, much of it computerized. Most countries have designated staff for data quality assurance. All provide staff training, and most have documentation requirements for data collection. Nearly all have one or more procedures to maintain data confidentiality. Countries are heterogeneous in collecting and assessing data to monitor screening program performance and impact.

Conclusions: Demonstrating that population-based screening mammography reduces breast cancer mortality requires collection of high-quality data on key aspects of the multi-step screening process. Assuring the quality of data collection systems for screening mammography programs is an important and evolving area for IBSN countries.

Objectives: To describe health technology assessment (HTA) and policies concerning three screening procedures in Sweden.

Methods: The main source of information was reports from the Swedish Council for Technology Assessment in Health Care (SBU) and other governmental reports, supplemented by the professional literature.

Results: Prevention is emphasized in the healthcare services of Sweden. Specifically, screening is encouraged and supported when it is deemed beneficial. Sweden has a strong orientation toward evidence-based health care and HTA. Since its inauguration in 1987, SBU has fostered the use of HTA in making policy and clinical decisions in Sweden. Government policy in Sweden is to encourage services that are beneficial and cost-effective and discourages services that are not. Screening is no exception to this general rule. The three cases examined in this paper—mammography screening, PSA screening, and routine ultrasound screening in pregnancy—have all been formally assessed in Sweden. Assessments have been an integral part of policy making concerning these and other preventive measures. Mammography screening has been widely implemented. However, as in other countries, screening is often carried out in an opportunistic fashion, so that PSA screening, in particular, is carried out more in Sweden than can be justified by the evidence.

Conclusions: Mammography screening is promoted and is completely available to the target group. PSA screening is discouraged, but not with complete success. Ultrasound in pregnancy is widely used, not because of good evidence of impact on mortality and morbidity among newborns, but because it increases the detection rate of congenitally malformed fetuses and because of evidence of positive effects on the management and planning of deliveries, as well as because of psychological and ethical implications of the technology. HTA is an important part of health policy making in Sweden.

Objectives: Discounting of costs in health-related economic evaluation is generally regarded as uncontroversial, but there is disagreement about discounting health benefits. We sought to explore the current recommendations and practice in health economic evaluations with regard to discounting of costs and benefits.

Methods: Recommendations for best practice on discounting for health effects as set out by government agencies, regulatory bodies, learned journals, and leading health economics texts were surveyed. A review of a sample of primary literature on health economic evaluations was undertaken to ascertain the actual current practice on discounting health effects and costs.

Results: All of the official sources recommended a positive discount rate for both health effects and costs, and most recommended a specific rate (range, 1% to 8%). The most frequently specified rates were 3% and 5%.

A total of 147 studies were reviewed; most of these used a discount rate for health of either 0% (n = 50) or 5% (n = 67). Over 90% of studies used the same discount rate for both health and cost. While 28% used a zero rate for both health and cost, in 64% a nonzero rate was used for both. Studies where the health measure was in natural clinical units (direct) were significantly more likely to have a zero discount rate.

Conclusion: The finding that 28% of studies did not discount costs or benefits is surprising and concerning. A lower likelihood of discounting for benefits when they are in natural units may indicate confusion regarding the rationale for discounting health effects.

Objectives: To analyze the response patterns and trends of 68 surveys of successive NIH consensus panels' views on the NIH consensus process.

Methods: Each panel's responses were compared to an “average” panel's responses calculated by determining the mean response for each survey question across panels.

Results: The results show a stable pattern of panelists' generally positive views. However, several conferences were judged very positively and some very negatively compared to the norm. Most negatively viewed conferences occurred early in the consensus program's history.

Conclusions: The disparate perceptions are discussed and interpreted as reflecting favorable panels' views of recent changes in the NIH Consensus Development Program.

Bayesian statistics provide effective techniques for analyzing data and translating the results to inform decision making. This paper provides an elementary tutorial overview of the WinBUGS software for performing Bayesian statistical analysis. Background information on the computational methods used by the software is provided. Two examples drawn from the field of medical decision making are presented to illustrate the features and functionality of the software.

The deregionalization of neonatal intensive care in the United States has shifted the site of care for many newborn infants away from academic medical centers where subspecialty support is available.

Objective: To investigate the effect of immediate echocardiogram interpretation via telemedicine on rates of neonatal transfer to academic medical centers.

Methods: A logit model was developed to predict the probability of transfer from two regional level 3 neonatal intensive care units to academic medical centers. One of these units implemented a telecardiology program and the other acted as a comparison institution with on-site cardiology expertise. The telecardiology intervention began 18 months into the 36-month study period.

Subjects: Infants (n = 2,142) admitted to neonatal intensive care at either of the two institutions during calendar years 1994 through 1996.

Results: A statistically significant reduction in the rate of transfer to academic medical centers was observed. Telecardiology was associated with a 58% reduction of such transfers (p = .001, 95% CI = 30%, 75%). No such reduction was noted at the comparison institution. It is estimated that approximately 30 transfers were eliminated during the study period, resulting in the elimination of approximately $150,000 in hospital charges. In addition, the infants that were transferred after the adoption of telemedicine were more often transferred to their telemedicine partner institution (p < .02).

Objective: To describe the level of health technology assessments for three screening methods in Switzerland.

Methods: Analysis of documents and expert opinions on mammography screening, ultrasound examinations during normal pregnancy, and screening for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) with a focus on services provided, recommendations, formal regulations, national papers, projects, and formal assessments.

Results: Preventive services are explicitly recommended by the Swiss federal law on health insurance. Two routine ultrasound examinations during normal pregnancy as well as PSA analysis for men over 40 years of age on medical indication are covered by basic health insurance. Mammography screening every 2 years has been covered since 1997 for women over 50 years. A systematic screening program for mammography exists in the western part of Switzerland, and a nationwide program is planned. However, a national program may not come into being until a quality assurance program for evaluation is established, and a nationwide fee for reimbursement—to include all costs of such a program—is accepted by providers and insurers.

Conclusion: According to the Swiss health insurance law, the effectiveness of mammography screening and ultrasound examinations during normal pregnancy have to be proven. Systematic evaluation of these screening methods is in preparation. PSA is not part of current evaluation. It can be concluded that health technology assessment in Switzerland is now required by law for several medical services. However, limited financial and personnel resources as well as the lack of disease registers may hamper progress in the near future.

Objectives: To study considerations used by professional and academic leaders to assess the position of new cardiovascular drugs in the therapeutic regimen in relationship to professional characteristics and the level of prescribing.

Methods: Interviews with 39 internists, cardiologists, general practitioners, and hospital pharmacists about considerations regarding the therapeutic position and prescribing of a new cardiovascular drug (losartan or atorvastatin) and professional characteristics. Considerations were classified according to Rogers' characteristics of an innovation, i.e., referring to the drug's relative advantage, compatibility, or complexity. Proportions of respondents mentioning advantageous, comparable, and/or disadvantageous characteristics were used to construct patterns to analyze an overall evaluation of the drugs in relation to professional characteristics and level of prescribing.

Results: The majority of considerations referred to the degree of relative advantage, but different subjects were emphasized for both drugs. Overall patterns of evaluation were generally intermediate and negative. The respondents' profession, mentioning commercial sources of information and self-qualification as a (moderately) early adopter of new drugs differentiated the overall evaluation of the drugs, in contrast to expertness and academic affiliation. The level of prescribing differentiated the overall evaluation only in the case of losartan.

Conclusions: These professional and academic leaders critically evaluated the claims when assessing the position of the drugs in the therapeutic regimen but did not show consensus in their considerations. Accepted principles for prescribing were considered when assessing the therapeutic position of the drugs but resulted in varied tendencies for prescribing.

Decision making in health care has become increasingly reliant on information technology, evidence-based processes, and performance measurement. It is therefore a time at which it is of critical importance to make data and analyses more relevant to decision makers. Those who support Bayesian approaches contend that their analyses provide more relevant information for decision making than do classical or “frequentist” methods, and that a paradigm shift to the former is long overdue. While formal Bayesian analyses may eventually play an important role in decision making, there are several obstacles to overcome if these methods are to gain acceptance in an environment dominated by frequentist approaches. Supporters of Bayesian statistics must find more accommodating approaches to making their case, especially in finding ways to make these methods more transparent and accessible. Moreover, they must better understand the decision-making environment they hope to influence. This paper discusses these issues and provides some suggestions for overcoming some of these barriers to greater acceptance.