Yersinia enterocolitica is an important cause of acute gastrointestinal disease and post-infectious complications. In Germany, incidence of reported yersiniosis is relatively high compared with other countries of the European Union. Children aged <5 years are most frequently affected. The aim of our study was to identify risk factors for sporadic yersiniosis in Germany. A population-based case-control study was conducted in five federal states of Germany from April 2009 to June 2010. Cases exhibiting gastrointestinal symptoms were notified to the local health department with a Yersinia enterocolitica infection culture-confirmed from stool. Controls were selected from population registries and frequency-matched on age group and state of residency. Cases and controls received a questionnaire on possible risk factors by mail. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to identify risk factors and to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aORs). Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were estimated for exposures associated with yersiniosis. We analysed data on 571 case patients and 1798 controls. Consumption of raw minced pork, a dish frequently consumed even by young children in Germany, was the main risk factor for disease (aOR 4·7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3·5–6·3, PAF 30%). This association varied by age group and, unexpectedly, was strongest for children aged <2 years (aOR 17·5, 95% CI 6·0–51·2). Other independent risk factors included recent preparation of minced pork in the household (aOR 1·4, 95% CI 1·1–1·9, PAF 21%), playing in a sandbox (aOR 1·7, 95% CI 1·3–2·4, PAF 17%), and contact with birds (aOR 1·7, 95% CI 1·1–2·6, PAF 4%). Prevention efforts should specifically target parents and caregivers of young children and focus on the high infection risk associated with consumption of raw minced pork.

We used the clustered lot quality assurance sampling (clustered-LQAS) technique to identify districts with low immunization coverage and guide mop-up actions during the last 4 days of a combined oral polio vaccine (OPV) and yellow fever (YF) vaccination campaign conducted in Cameroon in May 2009. We monitored 17 pre-selected districts at risk for low coverage. We designed LQAS plans to reject districts with YF vaccination coverage <90% and with OPV coverage <95%. In each lot the sample size was 50 (five clusters of 10) with decision values of 3 for assessing OPV and 7 for YF coverage. We ‘rejected’ 10 districts for low YF coverage and 14 for low OPV coverage. Hence we recommended a 2-day extension of the campaign. Clustered-LQAS proved to be useful in guiding the campaign vaccination strategy before the completion of the operations.

Using systematic review methodology, global research reporting the frequency of zoonotic bacterial pathogens, antimicrobial use (AMU) and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in ornamental fish, and human illness due to exposure to ornamental fish, was examined. A survey was performed to elicit opinions of aquaculture-allied personnel on the frequency of AMU and AMR in ornamental fish. The most commonly reported sporadic human infections were associated with Mycobacterium marinum, while Salmonella Paratyphi B var. Java was implicated in all reported outbreaks. Aeromonas spp. were most frequently investigated (n=10 studies) in 25 studies surveying ornamental fish from various sources. High levels of resistance were reported to amoxicillin, penicillin, tetracycline and oxytetracycline, which was also in agreement with the survey respondents' views. Studies on AMU were not found in our review. Survey respondents reported frequent use of quinolones, followed by tetracyclines, nitrofurans, and aminoglycosides. Recommendations for future surveillance and public education efforts are presented.

Campylobacter spp. is a widespread and important cause of human illness worldwide. Disease is frequently associated with foodborne transmission, but other routes of exposure, such as direct contact with live animals and person-to-person transmission, are also recognized. Identifying the most important sources of human disease is essential for prioritizing food safety interventions and setting public health goals. Numerous case-control studies of sporadic infections of campylobacteriosis have been published. These studies investigated a variety of potential risk factors for disease, often using different methodologies and settings. Systematic reviews (SRs) consist of a formal process for literature review focused on a specific research question, and include the identification of relevant literature, quality assessment of relevant studies, summarization or statistical analysis of data, and conclusions. With the objective of identifying the most important risk factors for human sporadic campylobacteriosis, we performed a SR of case-control studies of human sporadic cases and a meta-analysis of the obtained results. A combined SR focusing on Salmonella and Campylobacter studies was performed and the results analysed separately. From 1295 identified references, 131 passed the relevance screening, 73 passed the quality assessment stage, and data was extracted from 72 studies. Of these, 38 focused on campylobacteriosis. Information on exposures of cases and controls, and estimated odds ratios for investigated risk factors were collected and analysed. In the meta-analysis, heterogeneity between the studies and possible sources of bias were investigated, and pooled odds ratios for identified risk factors were estimated. Results suggest that travelling abroad, eating undercooked chicken, environmental sources, and direct contact with farm animals were significant risk factors for campylobacteriosis. Sub-analyses by geographical region, age group, and study period were performed, and differences were discussed.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is highly prevalent in Spanish hospitals and community long-term-care facilities (LTCFs). This longitudinal study was performed in community LTCFs to determine whether MRSA colonization is associated with MRSA infections and overall mortality. Nasal and decubitus ulcer cultures were performed every 6 months for an 18-month period on 178 MRSA-colonized residents (86 490 patient-days) and 196 non-MRSA carriers (97 470 patient-days). Fourteen residents developed MRSA infections and 10 of these were skin and soft tissue infections. Two patients with respiratory infections required hospitalization. The incidence rate of MRSA infection was 0·12/1000 patient-days in MRSA carriers and 0·05/1000 patient-days in non-carriers (P=0·46). No difference in MRSA infection rate was found according to the duration of MRSA colonization (P=0·69). The mortality rate was 20·8% in colonized residents and 16·8% in non-carriers; four residents with MRSA infection died. Overall mortality was statistically similar in both cohorts. Our results suggest that despite a high prevalence of MRSA colonization in LTCFs, MRSA infections are neither frequent nor severe while colonized residents remain at the facility. The epidemiological impact of an MRSA reservoir is more relevant than the clinical impact of this colonization for an individual resident and supports current recommendations to control MRSA spread in community LTCFs.

Seventy-five individuals with Salmonella infection were identified in the Portsmouth area during August and September 2009, predominantly Salmonella Enteritidis phage type 8. Five patients were admitted to hospital. A case-case comparison study showed that a local restaurant was the most likely source of the infection with a risk of illness among its customers 25-fold higher than that of those who did not attend the restaurant. A case-control study conducted to investigate specific risk factors for infection at the restaurant showed that eating salad was associated with a threefold increase in probability of illness. Changing from using ready washed lettuces to lettuces requiring washing and not adhering strictly to the 48 hours exclusion policy for food handlers with diarrhoea were likely to have contributed to the initiation and propagation of this outbreak. Possibilities for cross-contamination and environmental contamination were identified in the restaurant.

Although communicable diseases have hitherto played a small part in illness associated with Olympic Games, an outbreak of infection in a national team, Games venue or visiting spectators has the potential to disrupt a global sporting event and distract from the international celebration of athletic excellence. Preparation for hosting the Olympic Games includes implementation of early warning systems for detecting emerging infection problems. Ensuring capability for rapid microbiological diagnoses to inform situational risk assessments underpins the ability to dispel rumours. These are a prelude to control measures to minimize impact of any outbreak of infectious disease at a time of intense public scrutiny. Complex multidisciplinary teamwork combined with laboratory technical innovation and efficient information flows underlie the Health Protection Agency's preparation for the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. These will deliver durable legacies for clinical and public health microbiology, outbreak investigation and control in the coming years.

Animal losses due to abortion and weak offspring during a lambing period amounted up to 25% in a goat flock and up to 18% in a sheep flock kept at an experimental station on the Swabian Alb, Germany. Fifteen out of 23 employees and residents on the farm tested positive for Coxiella burnetii antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and indirect immunofluorescence assay. Ninety-four per cent of the goats and 47% of the sheep were seropositive for C. burnetii by ELISA. Blood samples of 8% of goats and 3% of sheep were PCR positive. C. burnetii was shed by all tested animals through vaginal mucus, by 97% of the goats and 78% of the sheep through milk, and by all investigated sheep through faeces (PCR testing). In this outbreak human and animal infection were temporally related suggesting that one was caused by the other.

The Netherlands has experienced large community outbreaks of Q fever since 2007. Sera and questionnaires containing epidemiological data from 5654 individuals were obtained in a nationwide seroprevalence survey used to evaluate the National Immunization Programme in 2006–2007. We tested these sera for IgG phase-2 antibodies against Coxiella burnetii with an ELISA to estimate the seroprevalence and to identify determinants for seropositivity before the Q fever outbreaks occurred. Overall seroprevalence was 1·5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3–1·7]. Corrected for confirmation with immunofluorescence results in a subset, the estimated seroprevalence was 2·4%. Seropositivity ranged from 0·48% (95% CI 0·00–0·96) in the 0–4 years age group to 2·30% (95% CI 1·46–3·15) in the 60–79 years age group. Keeping ruminants, increasing age and being born in Turkey were independent risk factors for seropositivity. The low seroprevalence before the start of the outbreaks supports the hypothesis that The Netherlands has been confronted with a newly emerging Q fever problem since spring 2007.

The spring of 2009 witnessed the emergence of a novel influenza A(H1N1) virus resulting in the first influenza pandemic since 1968. In autumn of 2010, the 2009 novel H1N1 influenza strain re-emerged. We performed a retrospective time-series analysis of all patients with laboratory-confirmed H1N1 influenza who presented to our institution during 2009. Cases of influenza were assembled into 3-day aggregates and forecasting models of H1N1 influenza incidence were created. Forecasting estimates of H1N1 incidence for the 2010–2011 season were compared to actual values for our institution to assess model performance. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals calculated around our model's forecasts were accurate to ±3·6 cases per 3-day period for our institution. Our results suggest that time-series models may be useful tools in forecasting the incidence of H1N1 influenza, helping institutions to optimize distribution of resources based on the changing burden of illness.

In spring 2009 a new strain of influenza A(H1N1) emerged and caused a worldwide pandemic. This study utilized a large collection of respiratory specimens from suspected cases of influenza A(H1N1) in the UK West Midlands during the pandemic in order to investigate which other respiratory viruses were circulating and whether they played any role in the increased hospitalization rates seen during that period. Study specimens were selected from community and hospitalized patients positive and negative for influenza A(H1N1) and tested by PCR for other respiratory viruses. A number of infections diagnosed as influenza during the summer influenza outbreak were found to be due to other virus infections (most commonly rhinovirus). No statistically significant difference was found between the rates of respiratory virus co-infection with H1N1 in patients from community or hospital locations suggesting underlying factors were likely to be more significant than viral co-infections in determining severity of influenza A(H1N1) disease.

Environmental staphylococcal contamination was investigated by culture of 400 automated teller machines (ATMs). Isolates were characterized for antibiotic and antiseptic susceptibility, carriage of antiseptic resistance genes (QAC genes), and spa types. MRSA, which was similar to local clinical isolates, was present on two (0·5%) of the 62 (15·5%) ATMs that yielded Staphylococcus aureus. QAC genes were more common in coagulase-negative staphylococci (qacA/B 26·0%, smr 14%) than S. aureus (11·3% qacA/B, 1·6% smr). QAC-positive isolates had significantly higher minimum inhibitory concentrations/minimum bactericidal concentrations to benzalkonium chloride and chlorhexidine digluconate. QAC gene presence was significantly associated with methicillin and tetracycline resistance. Survival of staphylococci, including MRSA, on common access sites may be facilitated by low disinfectant concentrations, which select for disinfectant-tolerant strains, while co-selecting for antibiotic-resistance determinants. Disinfection procedures should be performed correctly to help prevent spread of resistant pathogens from reservoirs in the community.

A retrospective cross-sectional survey of self-reported acute gastrointestinal infection (AGI) incidence in the community was performed in Poland, from December 2008 to November 2009. The aim of the study was to estimate the magnitude and distribution of self-reported AGI, in order to calibrate the routine AGI surveillance system in Poland. The study population were randomly selected residents of all Polish regions, having a fixed telephone line. An equal number of telephone interviews were collected each month, requesting the interviewee to identify gastrointestinal symptoms that had occurred in the previous 4 weeks. The international AGI case definition was used. In total 3583 complete interviews were obtained. The compliance ratio was 26%. Of 3583 respondents, 240 (6·7%) individuals fulfilled the AGI case definition. The annualized incidence of acute gastroenteritis was 0·9/person-year (95% confidence interval 0·8–1·0). Comparison of the obtained annual AGI estimate (33·3 million infections) with the number of cases reported to national surveillance during the corresponding period (73 512), yielded an underreporting factor of 453 cases occurring in the community for each reported case. Of the 240 AGI cases, 30·4% consulted a general practitioner, and 4·6% were admitted to hospital. Samples for microbiological confirmation were collected from four (1·6%) cases. This first population-based study in eastern Europe has confirmed that AGI places a high burden on Polish society, which is underestimated by national surveillance data. Efforts are necessary to improve AGI reporting and diagnostic practices in order to increase the effectiveness of the Polish surveillance system in detecting threats related to new AGI pathogens, new routes of transmission or the potential for international spread.

Human salmonellosis cases, particularly those caused by Salmonella Enteritidis, have been closely linked to egg consumption. This epidemiological survey was conducted to determine the baseline Salmonella prevalence and identify the risk factors for Salmonella prevalence in laying-hen farms in Japan. Caecal excrement samples and dust samples were obtained from 400 flocks in 338 laying-hen farms. Salmonella was identified in 20·7% of the farms and 19·5% of the flocks. The prevalence of Salmonella was significantly higher in flocks reared in windowless houses than in those reared in open houses. In addition, the risk of Salmonella presence was significantly higher when the windowless house farms implemented induced moulting or in-line egg processing. Efforts to reduce human salmonellosis in Japan should continue to focus on the establishment of control measures in laying-hen farms, especially those with windowless houses implementing induced moulting and equipped with in-line egg processing.

Trichinella is an important foodborne pathogen causing considerable morbidity and mortality. To prevent human trichinellosis, meat inspection for Trichinella spp. at slaughter is a key instrument. Current testing is based on minimal infectious dose in humans, but a scientific basis for this approach is lacking. To this end, a dose–response model must be developed, allowing translation of exposure into disease burden at the population level. We developed novel methods for dose–response assessment using outbreak data incorporating sexual reproduction of the parasite. A selection of suitable outbreak studies, reporting numbers exposed and infected, as well as estimated doses, was collated from a literature study. Humans appear to be highly susceptible: exposure to low doses (few larvae) is associated with a considerable risk of infection. As a consequence, levels of Trichinella in meat must be low to maintain acceptable health risks.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of documented viral respiratory infections, and the leading cause of hospitalization, in young children. We performed a retrospective time-series analysis of all patients aged <18 years with laboratory-confirmed RSV within a network of multiple affiliated academic medical institutions. Forecasting models of weekly RSV incidence for the local community, inpatient paediatric hospital and paediatric intensive-care unit (PICU) were created. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals calculated around our models' 2-week forecasts were accurate to ±9·3, ±7·5 and ±1·5 cases/week for the local community, inpatient hospital and PICU, respectively. Our results suggest that time-series models may be useful tools in forecasting the burden of RSV infection at the local and institutional levels, helping communities and institutions to optimize distribution of resources based on the changing burden and severity of illness in their respective communities.

We investigated the positive predictive value (PPV) of a solitary positive immunoglobulin M (IgM) phase II response for the serodiagnosis of acute Q fever detected with either an indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) or an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Initial and follow-up sera from patients suspected of acute Q fever were included if initially only IgM phase II tested positive with IFA in 2008 (n=92), or ELISA in 2009 (n=85). A seroconversion for Q fever was defined as an initial sample being IgG phase II negative but positive in the follow-up sample. The PPV of an initial isolated IgM phase II result detected by IFA or ELISA was 65% and 51%, respectively, and therefore appeared not to adequately predict acute Q fever. For this reason it cannot be used as a diagnostic criterion nor should it be included in public health notification without confirmation with other markers or a follow-up serum sample.

The recent outbreak of H1N1 has provided the scientific community with a sad but timely opportunity to understand the influence of socioeconomic determinants on H1N1 pandemic mortality. To this end, we have used data collected from 341 US counties to model H1N1 deaths/1000 using 12 socioeconomic predictors to discover why certain counties reported fewer H1N1 deaths compared to other counties. These predictors were then used to build a decision tree. The decision tree developed was then used to predict H1N1 mortality for the whole of the USA. Our estimate of 7667 H1N1 deaths are in accord with the lower bound of the CDC estimate of 8870 deaths. In addition to the H1N1 death estimates, we have listed possible counties to be targeted for health-related interventions. The respective state/county authorities can use these results as the basis to target and optimize the distribution of public health resources.