In developing public policy on food safety, systematic identification and thorough investigation of all general outbreaks is necessary in order to avoid bias towards highly publicised outbreaks. In Wales, from 1986 to 1998, 87 general foodborne outbreaks of salmonellosis were identified. Most outbreaks occurred at functions or were associated with small catering outlets such as bakeries and sandwich bars. In 50 outbreaks, a vehicle of infection was confirmed microbiologically and/or epidemiologically. The most common food vehicles were those containing shell eggs. Salmonella enteritidis outbreaks were significantly more likely than outbreaks of other serotypes to be associated with vehicles containing shell eggs, suggesting that eggs were also the source of infection in many outbreaks. The routine use of analytical epidemiological studies to identify vehicles in outbreaks is recommended.

The antimicrobial resistance of 809 Salmonella Typhimurium isolates collected from humans in Norway between 1975 and 1998 was studied. The material was subdivided into domestic and foreign isolates according to whether the patient had recently travelled abroad or not. In imported isolates the largest increase in resistance was in 1996 when 35% of the isolates were multi-resistant. The first multi-resistant isolate acquired in Norway appeared in 1994, but already in 1998 23% of the isolates domestically acquired were multi-resistant, and a majority were S. Typhimurium DT104. We found no ciprofloxacin resistance in domestically acquired isolates. Amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis was performed on selected multi-resistant isolates. The method discriminated well between different multi-resistant isolates, but not between DT104 isolates. Resistant and multi-resistant S. Typhimurium were until 1998 essentially recovered from patients who had travelled abroad, but multi-resistant isolates, mainly DT104, are now also being transmitted within the country.

Different genetic typing procedures were applied in an epidemiological study of Salmonella serotype Ohio. Isolates that generated identical DNA fingerprints (HincII ribotypes, ERIC and RAPD profiles) were clustered into the same lineage, and the addition of data from plasmid, integron and resistance profiles was used to differentiate types. Results led to the determination of the endemic and the emergent epidemic types at specific times, and to ascertain the clinical and epidemiological impact of each type. In the series analysed (47 clinical isolates and 3 non-clinical isolates) 11 lineages and 32 types were found. Two lineages were considered prevalent and endemic, and during an epidemiological alert (Spain, 1998) a re-emergence and spread of organisms mainly from the most frequent lineage had occurred. The combination of H-ribotype with ERIC profile, as primary markers, and resistance profile with plasmid profile, as secondary markers, was shown to be the most useful tool to trace epidemiologically Ohio.

An outbreak of salmonellosis occurred among 63 wedding participants. The outbreak was investigated through cohort, laboratory, and environmental studies. Consumption of rice-dressing made from a commercially cooked, meat-based, rice-dressing mix was strongly associated with illness. Nineteen patient isolates, six company/grocery store isolates cultured from the rice-dressing mix, and one environmental isolate from a pump in the production line were of an identical outbreak strain of Salmonella Infantis characterized by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. In the production line, cooked rice-dressing mix tested negative for S. Infantis before and positive after contact with the contaminated pump. The dressing-mix had an estimated 200 colony-forming units of salmonella per gram of product, and > 180 000 pounds were distributed in 9 states for [ges ] 2 months before contamination was recognized. Food manufacturers should be required to use systematic, hazard analysis critical control point risk management practices for all processed meat products, validated by periodic microbiologic monitoring of the end product.

An outbreak of gastro-enteritis occurred in a community of 2213 persons located near the city of Ioannina, in North-western Greece. Two hundreds and eighty-eight inhabitants of the village of Eleoussa, suffered from gastro-enteritis between 11 and 22 October. The peak of the epidemic occurred during the first 3 days (11–13 October). The highest risk of developing gastro-enteritis was observed in the age group 0–14 years (41·4%) and decreased significantly with age (P < 0·01). Patients over 65 years were more frequently hospitalized than those in other age groups (P < 0·05). Shigella sonnei was isolated from both, water samples and faeces of patients. Control measures were implemented on the second day of the outbreak. Environmental conditions suggest that contamination of the water system occurred by groundwater.

Infection with thermophilic Campylobacter spp. usually leads to an episode of acute gastroenteritis. Occasionally, more severe diseases may be induced, notably Guillain–Barré syndrome and reactive arthritis. For some, the disease may be fatal. We have integrated available data in one public health measure, the Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY). DALYs are the sum of Years of Life Lost by premature mortality and Years Lived with Disability, weighted with a factor between 0 and 1 for the severity of illness. The mean health burden of campylobacter-associated illness in the Dutch population in the period 1990–5 is estimated as 1400 (90% CI 900–2000) DALY per year. The main determinants of health burden are acute gastroenteritis (440 DALY), gastroenteritis related mortality (310 DALY) and residual symptoms of Guillain–Barré syndrome (340 DALY). Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that alternative model assumptions produced results in the above-mentioned range.

Plesiomonas shigelloides is often regarded as a non-pathogenic bacterial species that is occasionally isolated from patients with diarrhoea. However, a review of travellers returning to Japan with diarrhoeal illness through Kansai Airport revealed that the incidence of P. shigelloides from microbiologically confirmed cases increased from 23·2% in 1987 to 77·8% in 1999. We carried out a descriptive epidemiological study to identify patterns associated with diarrhoea due to this organism. Selected P. shigelloides isolates from this patient group were compared by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of SpeI total chromosomal DNA digests to determine their genetic heterogeneity. Over the study period (whole of 1996 and first 2 months of 1999), 1149 of 1659 (69·3%) patients with microbiologically confirmed gastroenteritis yielded P. shigelloides. Infection was characterized by watery diarrhoea five times per day that persisted for 3 days. No statistically significant association was found between factors such as age, gender, destination, length of trip, but multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed an association between additional symptoms (vomiting, fever, abdominal pain) age and gender. The molecular fingerprints of a selection of 39 isolates and 3 reference strains of P. shigelloides were highly variable and each had a unique profile. We conclude that although P. shigelloides infections are usually mild and self-limiting, this organism may contribute to a significant proportion of travellers' diarrhoea in the Orient. The species is characterized by great heterogeneity at the DNA level.

Two cases of Escherichia coli O157 infection occurred in children after visiting an inner city open farm. Subsequently faecal samples collected from animal pens and samples of composted mixed animal manure and vegetable waste were examined for E. coli O157 by enrichment culture, immunomagnetic separation and culture of magnetic beads to cefixime tellurite sorbitol MacConkey agar. Strains of E. coli O157 were characterized by hybridization with DNA probes for VT1, VT2 and eaeA, plasmid profile analysis, phage typing and pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Verocytotoxin-producing E. coli O157 strains were isolated from faecal samples from a cow, a horse, 3 breeds of pigs, 2 breeds of sheep and 2 breeds of goats and from 2 samples of compost which had been processed for 3 months. All strains were phage type 21, hybridized with probes for VT2 and eaeA but not with one for VT1, harboured 92 and 2 kb plasmids and gave indistinguishable banding patterns with PFGE. Although only two culture-confirmed cases of infection had been identified, the farm had over 100 000 visitors per year and so it was closed as a precaution both to allow a thorough investigation and to prevent further cases. The investigation identified many factors which may have contributed to transmission of E. coli O157 infection. Most of these were readily resolved by appropriate corrective measures and as there were no further cases associated with the farm during the ensuing 4 weeks it then re-opened. These cases highlight the risk, especially to young children, of acquiring zoonotic infections during visits to open farms and emphasize the need for adequate guidance and supervision before and during such visits.

For epidemiological studies of shigatoxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections, rapid, reproducible and highly discriminative methods are required. In this study, we examined the performance of the fluorescent amplified-fragment-length polymorphism (FAFLP) technique for epidemiological fingerprinting of STEC isolates and compared it to the acknowledged fingerprinting method pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). A total of 88 STEC isolates, including 82 of serotype O157[ratio ]H7 or O157[ratio ]H−, were subjected to fingerprinting by both PFGE and FAFLP. The isolates included sporadic and epidemiologically related strains of both animal and human origin from widespread geographical locations. The FAFLP fingerprint patterns confirmed the clonal nature of STEC O157 strains. Among the 82 O157[ratio ]H7/H− isolates belonging to 49 distinct groups of epidemiological unrelated isolates, 24 FAFLP profiles and 51 PFGE patterns were obtained. Thus, PFGE had a higher discriminatory power than FAFLP and overall correlated better to available epidemiological data. Consequently, the PFGE technique remains the method of choice in epidemiological investigations of STEC infections.

Quantifying the local burden of disease is an important step towards the introduction of new vaccines, such as Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) conjugate vaccine. We adapted a generic protocol developed by the World Health Organization for population-based surveillance of bacterial meningitis. All hospitals that admit paediatric patients with meningitis in the National District, Dominican Republic were included in the system and standard laboratory methods were used. The system identified 111 cases of confirmed bacterial meningitis. Hib was the leading cause of bacterial meningitis, followed by group B streptococcus, S. pneumoniae, and N. meningitidis. Unlike hospital-based case series, this population-based system was able to calculate incidence rates. The incidence of Hib meningitis was 13 cases per 100 000 children < 5 years old. The data from this study were used by the Ministry of Health to support the introduction of routine Hib vaccination and will be used to monitor its effectiveness.

We studied case-fatality rates (CFRs) among cases of meningococcal disease (MCD) admitted to Makkah (Saudi Arabia) hospitals during the period 1988–97. Of 483 cases, 431 (89·2%) were due to strains of serogroup A, 31 (6·4%) to serogroup W135, 16 (3·3%) to serogroup C, and 5 (1·0%) to serogroup B. Eighty-one patients died (case fatality rate (CFR)) 16·8%, 95% CI 13·5%, 20·4%). The CFR in infections due to serogroup A strains was 14·8%, and for other serogroups it was 32·7% (95% CI 20·3%, 47·1%). The CFR of MCD due to N. meningitidis serogroup A increased steadily with age (P < 0·05). Seeking first medical help at a foreign Hajj medical mission and being treated in a non-specialized hospital were associated with a higher case fatality rate.

Based on the invasive pneumococcal isolates referred to reference laboratories in Scotland in 1988–99, we identified the distribution of serotypes/groups and their antimicrobial resistance patterns in order to evaluate the coverage of polysaccharide and the new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. A total of 5659 invasive isolates were included. Of these, 5124 (90·5%) were blood isolates, 308 (5·5%) were CSF isolates, 143 (2·5%) were blood and CSF and 84 (1·5%) were other normally sterile isolates. The most prevalent 11 serotypes/groups were 14, 9, 19, 6, 23, 1, 3, 4, 7, 8 and 18, in numerical order. These accounted for 84% of total serotypes/groups.

The serotypes/groups included in the 23 and 14-valent polysaccharide vaccines accounted for 96% and 88% of all isolates. Both vaccines accounted for 98% of penicillin non-susceptible and 100% of erythromycin non-susceptible isolates. The 7, 9, and 11-valent conjugate vaccines covered 61, 68 and 80% of invasive isolates respectively. The coverage of these vaccines was substantially higher in youngest age group with 84, 86 and 93% of invasive isolates in children < 2 years included in the 7, 9 and 11-valent conjugate vaccines compared with 58, 64 and 77% in adults [ges ] 65 years of age.

The serotype/group distribution of invasive isolates in Scotland varied from year to year over the period 1993–9. The coverage of the 23-valent vaccine remained above 95% in each year but the coverage of the 7, 9 and 11-valent conjugate vaccines showed more marked fluctuation with coverage as low as 53, 60 and 75% in some years. Continued surveillance of invasive pneumococcal isolates is required to inform the development of appropriate vaccine strategies to prevent pneumococcal disease in Scotland.

Penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae (PRSP) is widespread all over the world, including countries previously free of PRSP. This study was undertaken to determine the prevalence, the common serotypes and the clonality of PRSP isolated over a period of 1 year, from various clinical samples from three major hospitals in Kuwait. Strains were identified by standard methods and their antibiotic susceptibility was determined by the agar dilution method. The clonality of the isolates was determined by repetitive extragenic palindromic sequence–polymerase chain reaction (REP–PCR) genomic profiling and pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Serotyping was done by Quellung reaction using specific antisera. We found that 55% of the S. pneumoniae were resistant to penicillin (46% and 9% exhibited intermediate and full resistance, respectively). Nearly 41% were resistant to sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim, 9% to cefotaxime and ceftriaxone, 15% to amoxycillin-clavulanate, 17% to cefuroxime, 77% to cefaclor, and 14% to clindamycin. The commonest serotypes among the PRSPs were 6A, 6B, 14, 19F, 23F and nontypable. PFGE and REP–PCR patterns showed a large diversity of genetic clones of the PRSP. Serotypes 6B, 14, 19F and 23F were more clonally related than the others. Our data showed that the prevalence of PRSP was high, the serotypes were diversified and different genetic clones make up the population of circulating PRSP in Kuwait.

Natural immunity to Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) is based primarily on antibodies that are thought to develop in response to subclinical infections. Wide use of conjugated Hib vaccines could lead to decreases in circulating Hib bacteria, thereby diminishing antibody levels in the unvaccinated. We applied a statistical model to estimate the duration of natural immunity to Hib under different forces of infection. Prior to the introduction of conjugated Hib vaccines, new Hib infections were estimated to occur once in 4 years and the antibody concentration to stabilize at a level around 1 μg/ml. In the absence of new stimuli, i.e. infection, 57% of the unvaccinated population would become susceptible to invasive disease (antibody levels < 0·15 μg/ml) in 10 years. Due to an interaction between the force of infection and the duration of immunity, in some situations numbers of invasive infections could increase in unvaccinated cohorts. This theoretical scenario has yet to be observed in practice.

Plague is a re-emerging disease endemic in at least 24 countries. Non-endemic countries should be able to confirm plague to prevent outbreaks due to imported cases. We established a combination of a IgG/IgM screening ELISA and a confirmation immunoblot employing F1 capsular antigen (CA) for the serodiagnosis of plague in countries where yersiniosis is present. The ELISA and the immunoblot assay showed a specificity of 96·1% and 100% among sera from healthy German blood donors. This group had a seroprevalence of 39% of anti-yersinia outer protein (YOP) antibodies obviously caused by previous Y. enterocolitica infection. The ELISA detected anti-F1 CA antibodies in 22 and the immunoblot in 20 out of 26 sera of plague vaccinees. Five control sera from bacteriologically confirmed plague cases from Madagascar reacted positively. It can be concluded that anti-YOP antibodies do not affect assays based on purified F1 CA.

An epidemiological and microbiological investigation of a cluster of eight cases of Legionnaires' disease in Los Angeles County in November 1997 yielded conflicting results. The epidemiological part of the investigation implicated one of several mobile cooling towers used by a film studio in the centre of the outbreak area. However, water sampled from these cooling towers contained L. pneumophila serogroup 1 of another subtype than the strain that was recovered from case-patients in the outbreak. Samples from two cooling towers located downwind from all of the case-patients contained a Legionella strain that was indistinguishable from the outbreak strain by four subtyping techniques (AP-PCR, PFGE, MAb, and MLEE). It is unlikely that these cooling towers were the source of infection for all the case-patients, and they were not associated with risk of disease in the case-control study. The outbreak strain also was not distinguishable, by three subtyping techniques (AP-PCR, PFGE, and MAb), from a L. pneumophila strain that had caused an outbreak in Providence, RI, in 1993. Laboratory cross-contamination was unlikely because the initial subtyping was done in different laboratories.

In this investigation, microbiology was helpful for distinguishing the outbreak cluster from unrelated cases of Legionnaires' disease occurring elsewhere. However, multiple subtyping techniques failed to distinguish environmental sources that were probably not associated with the outbreak. Persons investigating Legionnaires' disease outbreaks should be aware that microbiological subtyping does not always identify a source with absolute certainty.

Mycoplasma fermentans is suspected in the development of ‘Gulf War illness’ in veterans of Operation Desert Storm. We conducted a matched case-control study for the prevalence of M. fermentans-specific antibodies before and after the operation, as well as seroconversion rates in veterans with and without complaints of ‘Gulf War illness’. Cases consisted of Gulf War veterans, who complained of various illnesses and were enrolled in the second phase of the health evaluation by the Army Comprehensive Clinical Examination Program (CCEP). Controls were selected from Gulf War veterans who did not participate in the registry and did not request a health evaluation by the CCEP. Before operation deployment, 34 out of 718 of the cases (4·8%) and 116 out of 2233 of the controls (5·2%) tested positive for M. fermentans-specific antibodies. There was no difference in rates of seroconversion between cases and controls (1·1 vs. 1·2%) to M. fermentans during Operation Desert Storm. Thus, there is no serological evidence that suggests infection by M. fermentans is associated with development of ‘Gulf War illness’.

The prevention of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), as a complication of rubella infection during pregnancy, is the main aim of rubella vaccination programmes. However, as vaccination of infants leads to an increase in the average age at which those who were not immunized become infected, certain rubella vaccination programmes can lead to an increase in the incidence of CRS. In this paper we use a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of rubella virus to investigate the likely impact of different vaccination policies in Europe. The model was able to capture pre-and post-vaccination patterns of infection and prevalence of serological markers under a wide variety of scenarios, suggesting that the model structure and parameter estimates were appropriate. Analytical and numerical results suggest that endemic circulation of rubella is unlikely in Finland, the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and perhaps Denmark, provided vaccine coverage is uniform across geographical and social groups. In Italy and Germany vaccine coverage in infancy has not been sufficient to interrupt rubella transmission, and continued epidemics of CRS seem probable. It seems unlikely that the immunization programmes in these countries are doing more harm than good, but this may be partly as a result of selective immunization of schoolgirls. Indeed, in both these countries, selective vaccination of schoolgirls with inadequate vaccination histories is likely to be an important mechanism by which CRS incidence is suppressed (unlike the other countries, which have had sufficiently high infant coverage rates to withdraw this option). Reducing inequalities in the uptake of rubella vaccine may bring greater health benefits than increasing the mean level of coverage.

Data on the pre-vaccination patterns of infection for measles, mumps and rubella are collated from a number of European countries in order to compare the epidemiology of the three viruses. Key epidemiological parameters, such as the age-specific force of infection and the basic reproduction number (R0) are estimated from case notification or serological data using standard techniques. A method is described to compare force of infection estimates derived from serological data. Analysis suggests that the pre-vaccination patterns of measles and mumps infection in the different countries were similar. In contrast, the epidemiology of rubella was highly variable between countries. This suggests that it may be acceptable to use parameter values estimated from other countries to model measles and mumps transmission, but that this approach to modelling rubella transmission requires more caution. Estimates of R0 depend on underlying mixing assumptions. Constraints were placed on R0 estimates by utilising knowledge of likely mixing patterns. The estimates for R0 were highest for measles, intermediate for mumps, and generally lowest for rubella. Analysis of within- and between-age-group transmission rates suggested that mumps transmission tends to be more concentrated within young children than the other two viruses. The implications for the design of immunization programmes are that mumps may be the easiest to control via infant immunization since it is predominantly transmitted between the very young and the variability in rubella epidemiology requires that careful consideration of the possible effects of vaccination options should be made using local data when planning rubella immunization programmes.

The objective of this study was to develop and apply a dynamic mathematical model of VZV transmission to predict the effect of different vaccination strategies on the age-specific incidence and outcome of infection. To do so a deterministic realistic age-structured model (RAS) was used which takes account of the increased potential for transmission within school aged groups. Various vaccine efficacy scenarios, vaccine coverages and vaccination strategies were investigated and a sensitivity analysis of varicella incidence predictions to important parameters was performed. The model predicts that the overall (natural and breakthrough) incidence and morbidity of varicella would likely be reduced by mass vaccination of 12-month-old children. Furthermore, adding a catch-up campaign in the first year for 1–11 year olds seems to be the most effective strategy to reduce both varicella incidence and morbidity (in the short and long term), though with the possible detrimental effect of increasing the incidence of zoster.