Airborne radar sensors capture the profile of snow layers present on top of an ice sheet. Accurate tracking of these layers is essential to calculate their thicknesses, which are required to investigate the contribution of polar ice cap melt to sea-level rise. However, automatically processing the radar echograms to detect the underlying snow layers is a challenging problem. In our work, we develop wavelet-based multi-scale deep learning architectures for these radar echograms to improve snow layer detection. These architectures estimate the layer depths with a mean absolute error of 3.31 pixels and 94.3% average precision, achieving higher generalizability as compared to state-of-the-art snow layer detection networks. These depth estimates also agree well with physically drilled stake measurements. Such robust architectures can be used on echograms from future missions to efficiently trace snow layers, estimate their individual thicknesses, and thus support sea-level rise projection models.

Machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as a powerful tool for predicting weather and climate systems. However, much of the progress to date focuses on predicting the short-term evolution of the atmosphere. Here, we look at the potential for ML methodology to predict the evolution of the ocean. The presence of land in the domain is a key difference between ocean modeling and previous work looking at atmospheric modeling. Here, we look to train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to emulate a process-based General Circulation Model (GCM) of the ocean, in a configuration which contains land. We assess performance on predictions over the entire domain and near to the land (coastal points). Our results show that the CNN replicates the underlying GCM well when assessed over the entire domain. RMS errors over the test dataset are low in comparison to the signal being predicted, and the CNN model gives an order of magnitude improvement over a persistence forecast. When we partition the domain into near land and the ocean interior and assess performance over these two regions, we see that the model performs notably worse over the near land region. Near land, RMS scores are comparable to those from a simple persistence forecast. Our results indicate that ocean interaction with land is something the network struggles with and highlight that this is may be an area where advanced ML techniques specifically designed for, or adapted for, the geosciences could bring further benefits.

Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SLA) is a signature of the mesoscale dynamics of the upper ocean. Sea surface temperature (SST) is driven by these dynamics and can be used to improve the spatial interpolation of SLA fields. In this study, we focused on the temporal evolution of SLA fields. We explored the capacity of deep learning (DL) methods to predict short-term SLA fields using SST fields. We used simulated daily SLA and SST data from the Mercator Global Analysis and Forecasting System, with a resolution of (1/12)° in the North Atlantic Ocean (26.5–44.42°N, −64.25–41.83°E), covering the period from 1993 to 2019. Using a slightly modified image-to-image convolutional DL architecture, we demonstrated that SST is a relevant variable for controlling the SLA prediction. With a learning process inspired by the teaching-forcing method, we managed to improve the SLA forecast at 5 days by using the SST fields as additional information. We obtained predictions of 12 cm (20 cm) error of SLA evolution for scales smaller than mesoscales and at time scales of 5 days (20 days) respectively. Moreover, the information provided by the SST allows us to limit the SLA error to 16 cm at 20 days when learning the trajectory.

High-resolution simulations such as the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic Large-Eddy Model (ICON-LEM) can be used to understand the interactions among aerosols, clouds, and precipitation processes that currently represent the largest source of uncertainty involved in determining the radiative forcing of climate change. Nevertheless, due to the exceptionally high computing cost required, this simulation-based approach can only be employed for a short period within a limited area. Despite the potential of machine learning to alleviate this issue, the associated model and data uncertainties may impact its reliability. To address this, we developed a neural network (NN) model powered by evidential learning, which is easy to implement, to assess both data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainties applied to satellite observation data. By differentiating whether uncertainties stem from data or the model, we can adapt our strategies accordingly. Our study focuses on estimating the autoconversion rates, a process in which small droplets (cloud droplets) collide and coalesce to become larger droplets (raindrops). This process is one of the key contributors to the precipitation formation of liquid clouds, crucial for a better understanding of cloud responses to anthropogenic aerosols and, subsequently, climate change. We demonstrate that incorporating evidential regression enhances the model’s credibility by accounting for uncertainties without compromising performance or requiring additional training or inference. Additionally, the uncertainty estimation shows good calibration and provides valuable insights for future enhancements, potentially encouraging more open discussions and exploration, especially in the field of atmospheric science.

Both energy performance certificates (EPCs) and thermal infrared (TIR) images play key roles in mapping the energy performance of the urban building stock. In this paper, we developed parametric building archetypes using an EPC database and conducted temperature clustering on TIR images acquired from drones and satellite datasets. We evaluated 1,725 EPCs of existing building stock in Cambridge, UK, to generate energy consumption profiles. Drone-based TIR images of individual buildings in two Cambridge University colleges were processed using a machine learning pipeline for thermal anomaly detection and investigated the influence of two specific factors that affect the reliability of TIR for energy management applications: ground sample distance (GSD) and angle of view (AOV). The EPC results suggest that the construction year of the buildings influences their energy consumption. For example, modern buildings were over 30% more energy-efficient than older ones. In parallel, older buildings were found to show almost double the energy savings potential through retrofitting compared to newly constructed buildings. TIR imaging results showed that thermal anomalies can only be properly identified in images with a GSD of 1 m/pixel or less. A GSD of 1-6 m/pixel can detect hot areas of building surfaces. We found that a GSD > 6 m/pixel cannot characterize individual buildings but does help identify urban heat island effects. Additional sensitivity analysis showed that building thermal anomaly detection is more sensitive to AOV than to GSD. Our study informs newer approaches to building energy diagnostics using thermography and supports decision-making for large-scale retrofitting.