We construct efficient estimators of the identifiable parameters in a regression model when the errors follow a stationary parametric ARCH(P) process. We do not assume a functional form for the conditional density of the errors, but do require that it be symmetric about zero. The estimators of the mean parameters are adaptive in the sense of Bickel [2]. The ARCH parameters are not jointly identifiable with the error density. We consider a reparameterization of the variance process and show that the identifiable parameters of this process are adaptively estimable.

This paper considers the asymptotic behavior of M-estimates in a dynamic linear regression model where the errors have infinite second moments but the exogenous regressors satisfy the standard assumptions. It is shown that under certain conditions, the estimates of the parameters corresponding to the exogenous regressors are asymptotically normal and converge to the true values at the standard n−½ rate.

A formal statistical test of stationary-ergodicity is developed for known Markovian processes on ℝd This makes it applicable to testing models and algorithms, as well as estimated time series processes ignoring the estimation error. The analysis is conducted by examining the asymptotic properties of the Markov operator on density space generated by the transition in the state space. The test is developed under the null of stationary-ergodicity, and it is shown to be consistent against the alternative of nonstationary-ergodicity. The test can be easily performed using any of a number of standard statistical and mathematical computer packages.

This paper considers the properties of estimators based on numerical solutions to a class of economic models. In particular, the numerical methods discussed are those applied in the solution of linear integral equations, specifically Fredholm equations of the second kind. These integral equations arise out of economic models in which endogenous variables appear linearly in the Euler equations, but for which easily characterized solutions do not exist. Tauchen and Hussey [24] have proposed the use of these methods in the solution of the consumption-based asset pricing model. In this paper, these methods are used to construct method of moments estimators where the population moments implied by a model are approximated by the population moments of numerical solutions. These estimators are shown to be consistent if the accuracy of the approximation is increased with the sample size. This result depends on the solution method having the property that the moments of the approximate solutions converge uniformly in the model parameters to the moments of the true solutions.

We give a straightforward condition sufficient for determining the minimum asymptotic variance estimator in certain classes of estimators relevant to econometrics. These classes are relatively broad, as they include extremum estimation with smooth or nonsmooth objective functions; also, the rate of convergence to the asymptotic distribution is not required to be n−½. We present examples illustrating the content of our result. In particular, we apply our result to a class of weighted Huber estimators, and obtain, among other things, analogs of the generalized least-squares estimator for least Lp-estimation, 1 ≤ p < ∞.

It is well known that most of the standard specification tests are not robust when the alternative is misspecified. Using the asymptotic distributions of standard Lagrange multiplier (LM) test under local misspecification, we suggest a robust specification test. This test essentially adjusts the mean and covariance matrix of the usual LM statistic. We show that for local misspecification the adjusted test is asymptotically equivalent to Neyman's C(α) test, and therefore, shares the optimality properties of the C(α) test. The main advantage of the new test is that, compared to the C(α) test, it is much simpler to compute. Our procedure does require full specification of the model and there might be some loss of asymptotic power relative to the unadjusted test if the model is indeed correctly specified.

In the AR(2) model, with a double root at unity, we consider the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio with respect to a nearly nonstationary alternative. It is shown how the distribution can be represented as a Radon-Nikodym derivative of an Ito process with respect to Brownian motion. Using this result, we point out how standard contiguity arguments can be applied to obtain a representation of the asymptotic power function in nearly nonstationary alternatives.

In this paper, we examine the performance of the predictive risk of the Steinrule (SR) and positive-part Stein-rule (PSR) estimators when relevant regressors are omitted in the specified model. The exact formula of the predictive risk of the PSR estimator is derived, and the sufficient condition for the PSR estimator to dominate the SR estimator under a specification error is given. It is shown by numerical computation that the PSR estimator seems to be the best choice among the OLS, SR, and PSR estimators even when there are omitted variables.

The limiting distribution of the least squares estimate of the derived process of a noninvertible and nearly noninvertible moving average model with infinite variance innovations is established as a functional of a Lévy process. The form of the limiting law depends on the initial value of the innovation and the stable index α. This result enables one to perform asymptotic testing for the presence of a unit root for a noninvertible moving average model through the constructed derived process under the null hypothesis. It provides not only a parallel analog of its autoregressive counterparts, but also a useful alternative to determine “over-differencing” for time series that exhibit heavy-tailed phenomena.