Second-order asymptotic expansion approximations to the
joint distributions of dynamic forecast errors and
of static forecast errors in the stationary Gaussian
pure AR(1) model are derived. The approximation to
the dynamic forecast errors distribution can be
expressed as a multivariate normal distribution with
modified mean vector and covariance matrix, thus
generalizing the results of Phillips [12]. However,
the approximation to the static forecast errors
distribution includes skewness and kurtosis terms.
Thus the class of multivariate normal distributions
does not provide as good approximations (in terms of
error convergence rates) to the distributions of the
static forecast errors as to the distributions of
the dynamic forecast errors. These results cast some
doubt on the appropriateness of model validation
procedures, such as Chow tests, which use the static
forecast errors and implicitly assume that these
have a distribution which is well approximated by a
multivariate normal.